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MALTA is likely to experience more than 10 extra days each year without significant rainfall expected by the end of the cen- tury, a new report warns. The projection is based on a middle-of-the-road climate change scenario, assuming some global efforts to limit climate change but no full achievement of net zero emissions by 2100. This emerges from a working paper published by the Organi- sation for Economic Co-opera- tion and Development (OECD). The exercise used advanced climate models to develop for- ward-looking indicators to monitor the future exposure of people and agriculture to cli- mate-related hazards. Days with very little rain—less than 1 mm—are used to track short-term droughts, which can quickly affect crops that need regular watering. Malta's drought problem is exacerbated by the lack of fresh water sourc- es and reliance on groundwater, which can only be replenished by rainfall. Malta is not alone. Other Med- iterranean countries, including Portugal, Greece, Türkiye, and Spain, are expected to see similar increases in dry spells. Malta is projected to be the second most impacted country after Portu- gal. Some countries, like Tur- key, Spain, Greece, Israel, and Bulgaria, could face more severe drought effects on farmland. In contrast, China and Canada may experience fewer dry days by the end of the century. The report notes that rainfall and drought forecasts are hard- er to predict than temperature changes, but understanding these risks is essential for plan- ning ahead. This means Malta will need to focus on strategies to cope with longer dry periods. The latest OECD report fol- lows another by the Energy and Water Agency (EWA), which found that the hydrological year between 1 October 2023 and 30 September 2024 was the driest on record. Rainfall levels were so low that the islands temporarily experienced conditions typical of desert regions. Another study, published in April 2025 in Big Data and Cog- nitive Computing and authored by Benjamin Mifsud Scicluna and Charles Galdies, used dif- ferent climate models and sce- narios to project agricultural impacts. The study concluded that Mal- ta's agriculture will face increas- ingly severe water stress and heat exposure, with soil moisture de- clining significantly across most of the islands, making traditional crop cultivation increasingly dif- ficult without adaptation meas- ures. The problem is expected to be worse in the northern and south eastern regions of Malta, which are projected to face se- vere stress. Adaptation strate- gies include heat-tolerant crops, optimised water management, and intercropping to improve resilience. 12 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 28 SEPTEMBER 2025 NEWS JAMES DEBONO jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt Malta faces 10 more dry days a year