Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1541426
SURVEYS are snapshots taken at a moment in time. They tell you what people are feeling at a particular juncture in a country's life. The outcome of a survey depends on sam- pling quality, which determines how good the general pop- ulation is represented; sampling size, which determines the margin of error; and the methodology used to determine the voting behaviour of those who claim to be uncertain. There are scientific protocols to ensure these elements are satisfied thus providing the closest result to reality. Nonetheless, different surveys polling the same event or taking place at the same time do produce different out- comes since there is an inherent level of uncertainty, re- flected in the margins of error. This is true for all surveys conducted wherever in the world. This is why surveys are not the be all and all of politics—it would be a mistake to consider them so—but when viewed over a period of time they can identify trends that help pol- iticians and policymakers understand better how the elec- torate is changing. Surveys should not be read as predic- tions but as indicators of trends. MaltaToday's November survey, published last Sunday, provides the second snapshot since the election of Alex Borg as Nationalist Party leader. Although it may still be too early to determine whether a trend is developing, it is clear that the PN leader has made a difference in at least one category of voters—those who voted PN in the last general election. The survey suggests that Borg has managed to create a re- newed sense of purpose among PN voters, which is visible in the higher voter retention rate. Today, the PN is keeping more of those voters who gave it their first preference in the 2022 general election. The PN's retention rate at 86.8% is higher than that of the Labour Party, which stands at 78.9%. But significantly, an increasing number of the PN's cur- rent voters today trust Borg (86.9%) more than they used to trust Bernard Grech (58.3% in June). The figures show that Borg has definitely had a positive impact on the PN but on its own this will not be enough to win a general election. The November survey shows a marginal net swing in fa- vour of the PN. Indeed, while the PN loses 5.4% of its 2022 vote to Labour, it manages to attract 7.8% of those who voted for the PL in 2022. This net swing in favour of the PN was also visible in the October survey. This will be a key point to observe over the coming months because the PN will need more of this swing to be able to win the next election. Despite the encouraging outlook for the PN, the road is still long and hard. Borg needs to be more himself; lay down his vision for Malta by presenting policies, proposals and ideas that are coherent and able to bring about change while ensuring stability. It's a tall order because as the MaltaTo- day budget survey showed, people are still wary of trusting the PN with running the country's finances. This is not a problem the party can ignore if it wants the electorate to vote for it and not merely listen to what it has to say. This is why Borg must also groom a team that can inspire voters. On the other hand, the Labour Party should stop bury- ing its head in the sand and pretend everything is OK. Of course, people do appreciate generous tax cuts, cheques and fuel and electricity subsidies, but it would be a mistake to believe that these on their own are enough to convince a sceptical electorate to vote for it. The November survey reconfirmed that the PL has a re- tention problem among those who voted for it in 2022. It continues to lose support to that large invisible and com- plex cohort who will not vote. Instead of trying to dismiss the MaltaToday survey—the hypocrisy of some Labour functionaries, who never thought twice about sharing and commenting positively on Malta- Today surveys when they gave the PL favourable results— the party's higher echelons must sit down and reflect on the meaning of the latest results. There are multiple issues of concern in the country but the underlying problem with government is one of attitude. Across the board, arrogance among ministers and their un- derlings has crept in. Critics, even those who support the party but are not blinded by it, are dismissed, sometimes even branded as enemies of the people. Decisions go un- explained and when they are, like the Steward arbitration proceedings, voters are taken for idiots with false claims of victory being bandied about. MaltaToday's survey does offer Labour some comfort. Among current non-voters, Robert Abela enjoys a signif- icantly higher trust rating than Alex Borg. This suggests these voters have a higher propensity of voting Labour but it would be arrogant if the PL believes these non-voters will simply fall into its lap. And trying to entice them by reaching out to the Neville Gafas and Keith Schembris of this world is myopic at the very least and catastrophic at worst. The large cohort of non-voters is not a homogenous group—they may be disgruntled Labour hard core, they may be disillusioned liberal voters, they may be Nation- alist-leaning voters who have lost hope, they may simply be disinterested in politics altogether—and understanding who they are will be the key to who can win them over once the election comes knocking on the door. A little less cockiness and a bit more humility is what the PL needs but we are not too convinced this message will find listening ears at Castille and Mile End. The numbers have spoken, the parties need to listen maltatoday MaltaToday, MediaToday Co. Ltd, Vjal ir-Rihan, San Gwann SGN 9016 MANAGING EDITOR: SAVIOUR BALZAN EXECUTIVE EDITOR: KURT SANSONE EDITOR: PAUL COCKS Tel: (356) 21 382741-3, 21 382745-6 Website: www.maltatoday.com.mt E-mail: dailynews@mediatoday.com.mt 11 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 19 NOVEMBER 2025 EDITORIAL