Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1542822
Based on this projected turnout the PL is leading by 9,262 votes, up from a lead of 7,602 votes last November. However, this upward shift is statistically insignif- icant and falls squarely within the sur- vey's margin of error (+/-3.5 points). The characteristic of having the difference between the major parties falling within the margin of error has been a consistent feature since October, pointing towards a stabilisation of voter behaviour. The survey coincided with widespread speculation of an early election. The prime minister has gone on record saying his intention is to present another budget in October before going to the polls in 2027. Nonetheless, he left a window open if "geopolitical disruptions" force him to "secure a new mandate". As was the case in November, the gap between the two main parties is similar to that in the 2024 MEP elections but a far cry from Labour's 40,000-vote advan- tage in the 2022 general election. The diminished gap is mostly explained by the greater per- centage of 2022 PL voters, who now intend not to vote. Worryingly for the PL, the percentage of non-voters within its ranks has increased from 6.7% in June 2025 to 9.9% in October 2025, 11.8% in November and 13.9% now. This suggests that Labour still struggles in its bid to recover disgruntled former voters and thus reassemble its super ma- jority. This contrasts with the situation in the PN. In a sign of renewed enthusiasm af- ter Alex Borg took the party reins in his hands, the percentage of former PN vot- ers who intend not to vote has fallen from 10.5% in June 2025 to 5% in October and November 2025 and 3.9% now. Overall, the PN retains more of its 2022 votes than the PL does. While 86.7% of PN voters will confirm their support for the party if an election is held now, on- ly 75.6% of PL voters will do likewise. Nonetheless, with the PN's support hav- ing stabilised around the 46% mark in the polls since October, it remains to be seen whether the party has peaked too early or whether it still has the momentum to achieve further gains. The survey also confirms the fragmen- tation of the third-party vote with ADPD and Momentum registering equal sup- port—2.3% each. Small shift from PL to PN The survey suggests that the PN has not only consolidated its core vote but is also making modest inroads among PL voters, as has been the case in previous surveys. The January 2026 survey shows that while 8.6% of Labour voters in 2022 will now vote for the PN, while the PN is los- ing a smaller percentage (6%) of its 2022 voters to Labour. However, these gains are partly offset by greater PN losses to third parties. While the PL only loses 2% of its 2022 support to third parties the PN loses 3.5% of its voters to smaller parties. Labour also benefits from a small shift in its favour among 2022 non-vot- ers—16.7% of non-voters will now vote PL and 14.8% will vote PN. When taking into account the various THE ALL-NEW B10 STARTING FROM €20,900* (*2025 GOVERNMENT GRANTS AND SCRAPPAGE SCHEME INCLUDED. TERMS AND CONDITIONS APPLY). mt SURVEY SUNDAY • 25 JANUARY 2026 | maltatoday < CONTINUES FROM PREVIOUS PAGE Nationalist Party gains from Labour, Age Gender Region Education 2022 Voters 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0 16-35 36-50 51-65 65+ PL PN Momentum ADPD Other Will not vote Age 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 16-35 36-50 51-65 65+ 36.8% 29.7% 33.5% 36.7% 32.2% 31.1% 48.5% 38.1% 13.4% 44.5% 43.6% 12% Trust Barometer Robert Abela Alex Borg None 0 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 41.3% 35.9% 22.8% All Voters November 2025 PL 48.9% ADPD 2.3% Momentum 2.3% PN 45.7% Others 0.8% Age Gender Region Education 2022 Voters 110.0% 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0 PL 2022 PN 2022 No vote 2022 75.6% 8.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 13.9% 6% 86.7% 1.7% 0.8% 1% 3.9% 16.7% 14.8% 0.7% 3.2% 0.6% 64% PL PN Momentum ADPD Other Will not vote Voting Intentions Trust Barometer All Voters Robert Abela Alex Borg None 0 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 41.3% 35.9% 22.8% November 2025 Voting intention based on age How 2022 election voters will vote now