Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1543612
5 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 4 MARCH 2026 ANALYSIS and the election clock Abela's calculations on when to call the next general election markets. Disruptions such as a clo- sure of the Strait of Hormuz, spikes in global LNG prices, or decisions by major exporters like Qatar to reduce production would directly affect Mal- ta, which sources LNG for power sta- tions through SOCAR Trading on the international market. Energy from the interconnector also relies on fossil fuel imports, with only a small share derived from renewables and nuclear. Such shocks could drive up energy costs and put further strain on public finances, compounding the pressures already created by domestic subsidy commitments. The procrasti- nation on investment in major renew- able energy infrastructure has come back to haunt the government, giving opposition parties the opportunity to expose this major lack of foresight and planning. 4. Broader economic headwinds Beyond energy-specific risks, the Middle East conflict could generate broader economic turbulence. Tour- ism, trade, and investor confidence may be disrupted, and inflation could be exacerbated by higher fuel and commodity prices. Inflation could erode purchasing power, and while the government may blame price in- creases on the international situation, the "feel-good" factor could be dimin- ished. In such a scenario, frustration on broader governance issues as well as inequalities could increase. Moreover, the government's abili- ty to sustain social expenditure and tax cuts depends on contin- uous economic growth. If the international cri- sis dents economic growth, Labour's economic model would be in trou- ble. For example, an erosion of pur- chasing power due to inflation could endanger the global post-COVID tourism boom. These factors would also affect Malta's overall economic performance, a key electoral asset, and could shift public sentiment, influencing the gov- ernment's calculus on election timing. The question is whether to gain more time to weather the storm — and get brawny points for handling it well — or to call it before "shit hits the fan". 5. Foreign policy as an electoral issue The crisis also has the potential to el- evate foreign policy to a key campaign theme. Abela is likely to invoke Mal- ta's neutrality — a traditional Labour plank — as a cornerstone of foreign policy during dangerous times. Al- though not in striking distance, the argument that Malta (unlike Cyprus and the Gulf states) is less exposed to retaliation for decisions taken by the US and its allies has been somewhat vindicated. However, Abela's messaging has been inconsistent; earlier, he had toyed with the idea of joining Don- ald Trump's "board of peace," which may compromise his credibility and raise questions about his foresight and strength of convictions. If the conflict endures or spreads, he may face even more difficult choices, especially if confronted by an increased US pres- ence in the Mediterranean. Converse- ly, the Opposition has anchored itself in EU positions. If the EU takes a more intervention- ist stance, that could become politi- cally sensitive domestically, allowing Labour to argue that Malta's stability is best secured through a more neutral and independent approach. Ultimate- ly, both parties are likely to converge around the two cornerstones of Mal- ta's foreign policy: EU membership and constitutional neutrality. Yet adapting neutrality to new global realities remains a chal- lenge, which merits more serious debate. 6. Scale and duration of the conflict U l t i m a t e l y , timing may hinge on how the conflict evolves in the coming days and weeks. A short con- frontation followed by rapid regime collapse in Iran or a ceasefire might produce a tempo- rary shock, albeit with possible post- war instability. A prolonged conflict, by contrast, would extend uncertainty for months and compound economic risks. The choice becomes strategic: seek a re- newed mandate while disruption is contained, or wait and risk campaign- ing in a far more volatile economic climate. Still Abela would still have to make an informed guess. For to call an election in May or early June he will have to call it in April possibly before the conflict is resolved. The Iran war has therefore inject- ed a significant external variable into what had appeared to be an electoral timetable dictated by domestic con- siderations. The decision will depend less on political cycles dictated by local convenience and more on how quickly — or how deeply — geopoliti- cal instability begins to touch Malta's economy. Yet one drawback of calling an election amidst an international crisis is that this may erode Abela's statesmanlike attributes by adding an unnecessary layer of political uncertainty to economic turbulence