Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1543797
2 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 8 MARCH 2026 OPINION Former deputy commander AFM The Mediterranean is shifting and Malta cannot afford to stand still Col David P Attard (Retired) MALTA'S constitutional neu- trality is embraced by all sides of the political spectrum but is too often domestically interpreted as a kind of 'miracle cure'—a guar- antee that will shield us from every threat we face, whether re- al or perceived. The stark truth is far less com- forting. Neutrality does not elim- inate risk. It does not prevent conflict spill-over. It does not deter technological threats. It simply defines our military align- ment. In an era of unmanned war- fare, cyber operations and hy- brid tactics, neutrality must be supported by credible security and defence capacity. At pres- ent, Malta's defence spending remains among the lowest in the EU as a percentage of GDP with most of the spend going towards wages and salaries. The Armed Forces of Malta is primarily tasked with civilian-oriented roles such as search and rescue, limited border patrol and migra- tion management. The force's mandate, senior leadership and resource structure are not de- signed around high-intensity threat detection or joint air, land and sea rapid response capabili- ty. Additionally, Malta's present defence and security posture has deteriorated over the past decade as has its capacity to undertake military operations. It is within this context that the most recent attack on the Russian shadow fleet LNG tanker Arctic Metagaz highlights three uncomfortable realities within a scenario where drone warfare is now a defining concern. Reality 1: Instability in seas around Malta The Mediterranean is no longer a peripheral theatre in terms of existing conflicts. This same sea remains central to global ener- gy transport and is increasingly becoming relevant to existing conflict strategy. If commercial vessels can be targeted with rel- ative ease in waters around us, insurance rates will rise, naval deployments will expand and tensions between major regional and global powers will edge clos- er to our doorstep. Malta's econ- omy is deeply intertwined with maritime trade and tourism. Any instability in the seas around us directly affects us. Reality 2: Hesitation to respond Attribution is murky. Drone attacks are notoriously difficult to trace conclusively. That am- biguity creates diplomatic strain. The LNG tanker Arctic Metagaz was around 21 miles off our coast on 2 March, just a few hours be- fore it was attacked. Imagine a future incident involving such a vessel in such close proximity to Maltese territorial waters. The political pressure on government from allies, trading partners and international institutions would be immediate and intense. We all remember the incident involving the Motor Vessel Conscience that took place last year at Hurd Bank when this vessel was also attacked by drones albeit under different circumstances. In a crisis environment, hes- itation at government or mili- tary level and a lack of military response capability can quickly translate into long lasting repu- tational damage. Reality 3: Investment matters Preparedness matters even if deterrence capacity is limited by virtue of national size and re- sources. Malta does not require a fully-fledged blue-water navy to enhance its security posture. But it does require real investment in joint air, land and sea operational capability. Investment that should include a robust selection process for senior management, command and staff training for all selected officers, real-time maritime and air domain awareness, modern radar systems and full coastal and aerial surveillance integra- tion. More focus needs to be placed on closer operational co-ordination with our Europe- an and other strategic partners. All these actions are not instru- ments of militarism. On the con- trary, they are all instruments of maintaining peace and resilience. National security today National security in the 21st century for a small island like Malta is not defined by acquir- ing tanks and fighter jets. It is defined by sensors, intelligence capture and sharing, data inte- gration, infrastructure protec- tion and rapid response capabil- ities. It is defined by operational readiness from the strategic to the tactical levels. Critics may argue that increas- ing defence expenditure contra- dicts Malta's identity as a neutral state. In reality, the opposite is true. Neutrality without capa- bility risks irrelevance. Credible neutrality requires the ability to monitor, protect and secure one's own territory and surrounding waters. A state that cannot safe- guard its environment does not strengthen neutrality. It actually weakens it. The cost of under-investment in defence and security is not theoretical. If perceptions of vulnerability grow, international partners may view Malta as the weak link of central Mediterra- nean stability. Insurance mar- kets respond to risk. Investors respond to uncertainty. Strate- gic confidence, once eroded is difficult to rebuild. None of this requires alarmism. The latest drone attack off Maltese shores does not mean the Mediterra- nean is descending into open conflict but it does signal that the operational radius of modern warfare technologies now ex- tends into spaces long assumed to be commercially safe. Malta's strategic advantage has always been its location. That same location now demands renewed seriousness about de- fence and national security. The Mediterranean is changing. The tools of war are changing. The question is whether Malta will adapt before circumstances force adaptation upon us. The Medi- terranean is shifting and Malta cannot afford to stand still! A soldier from the Close Reconnaissance Team operating a drone during a training exercise last February in conjunction with the Volunteer Reserve Force, aimed at strengthening interoperability between regular operators and reservists (Photo: AFM) The question is whether Malta will adapt before circumstances force adaptation upon us. The Mediterranean is shifting and Malta cannot afford to stand still!