Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1543912
ing they are unsure who is going to win
the election. This suggests that while very
few would bet on the PN winning, a sub-
stantial minority of the electorate does
not consider the next election a foregone
conclusion.
But the survey reveals that
PL voters are more confident
than their PN counterparts in
their respective party's victo-
ry. Of those who say they will
vote Labour now, 75% believe
the PL will win the election,
while only 20.7% of PN voters
are sure their party will emerge
victorious.
Moreover, while practically none of
Labour voters believe the PN will win, a
considerable 30.9% of PN voters believe
the PL will win.
The numbers suggest a lack of self-be-
lief within the PN with more of their own
voters believing in a Labour victory than
a PN win.
This is particularly significant in elec-
toral campaigning. Research in political
science on the bandwagon effect shows
that voters are more likely to mobilise
and turn out when they believe their pre-
ferred party has a strong chance of win-
ning. On the other hand, supporters of
a party with little chance of winning are
more likely to become demoralised and
may lack the same enthusiasm to partici-
pate in an electoral campaign.
Significantly, only 0.1% of those intent
on not voting think the PN will win the
election, while 40% believe Labour will
win. Still, 59.7% of this strategic catego-
ry are unsure of the outcome of the next
election.
A demographic breakdown shows that
the highest percentage of believers in a
PN victory is found among those aged 65
and over (14.9%) and among those with
a primary level of education (17.2%). In
contrast, only 3.9% of those aged between
36 and 50 believe the PN will win.
Curiously, on a regional level the high-
est percentage of believers in a National-
ist victory is found in the Labour-leaning
South Harbour region (12.4%), but these
are greatly outnumbered by those who
believe Labour will win (56.9%).
At a regional level, the highest percent-
age of those who believe in a Labour vic-
tory is found in the traditionally PN-lean-
ing Northern region, where 59.1%.
In Gozo, which is the PN leader's home
district, only 5.6% of the electorate be-
lieve the Nationalists will win the next
general election.
Less than a third believe PN is
ready to govern
The general lack of confidence
in the PN's ability to win the
election is not surprising when
compared to voters' opinion on
whether the party is prepared to
govern.
A relative majority (44%) believe the
PN is unprepared to govern the country,
while 32.4% think it is ready and 23.5%
are unsure.
The survey suggests that a major stum-
bling block for the PN is the perception
among a widespread segment of the elec-
torate that it remains unprepared to gov-
ern after 13 years in Opposition.
Significantly, among non-voters—a cat-
egory the PN needs to convince to have a
chance of winning—only 13.3% think the
Opposition is prepared to govern. Among
this category, 34.8% believe the party is
unprepared, while an absolute majority
(51.9%) are unsure. This suggests there
is still a large cohort of non-voters who
could still be persuaded.
Just under a third of PN voters have
reservations
The survey also shows that some voters
are willing to support the PN despite be-
lieving it is unprepared. In fact, 13.9% of
current PN voters say they will still vote
for the party even though they think it is
not ready to govern yet. A further 18.2%
of PN voters are unsure about the party's
readiness. This means that just under a
third of current PN voters either doubt
their party's ability to govern or have res-
ervations.
This widespread sentiment could un-
dermine Alex Borg's attempts to project
the PN as a government in waiting and
leaves the party vulnerable to Labour's
narrative, which positions Robert Ab-
ela as a tried-and-tested leader who has
guided the country through difficult
times. This could be particularly damag-
ing in the current climate of international
turmoil, where voters are more likely to
trust the reins of government to an expe-
rienced, if imperfect, administration.
Significantly, doubts about the PN's
readiness are strongest among those aged
36 to 50, a group likely to have dependent
children and be at the peak of their ca-
reers. In this category, an absolute major-
ity (53.2%) believe the PN is unprepared.
In contrast, a slim relative majority of
over-65s (42.6%) believe the party is ready
to govern.
The shortest distance between both
poles is found among under-35s, where
39.1% believe the PN is unprepared, while
31.2% believe it is ready to govern. How-
ever, this category is also the one with the
highest percentage of uncertainty (29.8%)
over the PN's ability to govern.
Western region gives PN hope
The PN is considered unprepared to
govern in all regions except the Western
region, where a relative majority of 40.8%
believe the party is ready. In this region
that includes Żebbuġ, Siġġiewi, Attard
and Rabat, 31.9% believe the PN is unpre-
pared—the lowest score across all areas.
Gozo is evenly split, with 40.4% believ-
ing the PN is unprepared and 39% be-
lieving it is ready. But worryingly for the
party, a relative majority in the PN-lean-
ing Northern (42.9%) and North Harbour
(44.9%) regions believe it is not prepared
to govern Malta.
The perception that the PN is unpre-
pared is strongest in the Labour-leaning
South Eastern region (49.7%).
Education also shapes perceptions. Re-
spondents with secondary (48.2%) and
primary (53.8%) education are more like-
ly to consider the PN unprepared. Doubts
are still notable among the post-second-
ary educated where a relative majority
of 38.3% believe the PN is unprepared,
compared to 34.6% who believe it is
ready. At tertiary level, the split is almost
even—39.1% think the party is unpre-
pared and 38.2% think it is ready.
Good to have ADPD and Momentum in
parliament
The survey also asked whether it would
be good or bad for the country for AD-
PD and Momentum to be represented in
parliament.
The numbers show that ADPD, which
has been around for almost four decades,
enjoys wider approval than the newer
centrist party Momentum, despite both
attracting single-digit support in the vot-
ing intentions survey.
The survey shows that 39% believe it
would be good for the country to have
ADPD represented in parliament. The
percentage drops to 30.7% when re-
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mt SURVEY
SUNDAY • 15 MARCH 2026 | maltatoday
52% believe Labour Party will