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12 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 27 MAY 2026 ANALYSIS ELECTION 2026 How demographics are reshaping James Debono explores how Malta's shifting age profiles, urbanisation patterns and internal and external migration are reshaping the country's electoral districts and inf luencing their evolving political dynamics. 10 DISTRICT: THE ABSTENTION FACTOR The district is characterised by locali- ties with an ageing Maltese population and a large foreign population. In some cases—Sliema, Gżira and St Julian's— foreign residents outnumber Maltese residents. The average age ranges from 40 in Labour-leaning Pembroke to 53 in PN-leaning Sliema. The district also hosts some of the most affluent towns in Malta, including Sliema, which in 2021 had the highest number of people (526) declaring an an- nual income exceeding €100,000. The 10 District features some internal contrasts. Sliema, Gżira, and St Julian's form a hyper-dense commercial core dominated by young, transient foreign majorities working in both the upper and lower ends of the labour market. Conversely, Pembroke and Naxxar's coastal outskirts remain predominantly Maltese, low-density, family-oriented suburbs. The expansion of tourism and res- idential development in Gżira and Pembroke (home to the db high-rise project) represents a major test for La- bour's hold on these traditionally more working-class localities. On the other hand, abstention among politically disengaged, more affluent voters may represent a challenge for the PN. To correct severe population imbal- ances, ahead of the 2026 election, parts of Naxxar and Baħar iċ-Ċagħaq were added to the district. An analysis of past election results shows a sharp drop in turnout in this district, from 95% in 2003 to just 81% in 2022. The largest drop in turnout (eight percentage points) took place between 2017 and 2022. This drop was felt more sharply among PN voters. While the PL saw its vote tally decrease by 1,034, the PN's tally declined by a staggering 1,643. Moreover, the major parties also face increased competition from third par- ties, which together surpassed the 4% mark in 2022, up from 1.6% in 2017. In this election, the PN is fielding 16 candidates, the largest number in any district. These include eight sitting MPs and newcomers Conrad Borg Manche, the former Labour Gżira mayor, and or- thopaedic surgeon Ray Gatt. Labour, meanwhile, is also fielding a record 15 candidates, the second-high- est number in any district. This is a clear indication that Labour is taking this district seriously. Its candidates in- clude Health Minister Jo Etienne Abela, Social Policy Minister Michael Falzon, and Education Minister Clifton Grima. The district is also the only one where Momentum is presenting two candi- dates—party leader Arnold Cassola and Pierre Schembri Wismayer—which could increase competition for the votes of floating voters and endanger the PN's bid to recover switchers lost in 2013. 11 DISTRICT: PN'S CHANCE FOR A REBOUND The PN-leaning district is now com- posed of only two localities—the slight- ly older and more affluent, PN-leaning Attard, and the more politically bal- anced Mosta, which tilts PN but had a Labour-led council between 2019 and 2024. Mosta is Malta's third most populous locality, with over 26,000 residents. It is seeing rapid perimeter growth as older farmland, including areas in Żokrija and id-Dib added to development bounda- ries in 2006, is transformed into new apartment blocks. Attard, in contrast, has a more mature and stable population profile. A signif- icant segment consists of second- and third-generation homeowners, with a high ratio of retirees over 65. It has also experienced a relatively low intake of foreign workers and these tend to be affluent EU families. Due to the number of radical changes to the district boundaries over the past decades, comparisons with past elec- tions are only approximative. In the latest revisions, Mdina and Burmarrad, a hamlet of St Paul's Bay, were removed from the 11 District and moved to the 12 District. Between 2017 and 2022 both politi- cal parties lost votes to abstention but while the PL saw its vote decrease by 694, the PN lost 1,044 votes. This means Locality Average Age Gżira 50.4 Naxxar (part of ) NA Baħar iċ-Ċagħaq, Naxxar NA Pembroke 40.2 St Julian's 48.1 Sliema 52.8 District 10: Towns and age District 10: General election results Note: Average age is that of Maltese residents only. Source: NSO Source: Electoral Commission Year PL PN Others Turnout 2003 25.8% 73% 1.2% 95.3% 2008 33.9% 63.2% 2.9% 91.7% 2013 39.3% 57.4% 3.4% 90.2% 2017 38.1% 60.3% 1.6% 89.1% 2022 37% 58.7% 4.3% 80.9%