Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1545159
6 ANALYSIS 6 maltatoday | MONDAY • 1 JUNE 2026 ELECTION 2026 After the super-majority, What does a reduced margin, in the context of Labour's comfortable win mean for Robert Abela ROBERT Abela won an unprec- edented fourth term and with a comfortable margin of around 22,000 votes. But the era of the su- permajority is over, as the Maltese political system has shifted back to the 'old normal' of more restricted majorities. What does this mean for the prime minister? 1. Banking on historical firsts Robert Abela will take credit for an unprecedented fourth victory, which no previous party leader has ever accomplished in Maltese history. In this way, he gained his place in history. Truth be told, winning a fourth term was an achievement, consid- ering the wear and tear of keep- ing power for 13 long years. But from now onwards, the going will get tougher, with the prospect of change in the next election be- coming more plausible. But Abela can't hide the fact that the expectations of his support- ers were sky high, galvanised by the surveys by the Times of Mal- ta and Vincent Marmara, which showed Labour winning with a 30,000-vote majority. This sensation was also betrayed by the negative reaction of some party supporters to MaltaToday's surveys showing a more com- fortable but less overwhelming 18,000-vote victory. The reality is that Abela still won comfortably, but he can't hide the fact that the impression over the past month was that Labour was not just fight- ing to win, but also to minimise losses and keep the Nationalists in a state of disarray. The reality is that the PN has halved the gap and now starts its bid for the next election with a reduced gap which, unlike that in 2022, can be reversed. The PN may start sounding more like a government in waiting from now on. 2. The impact on Abela's leadership Internally, Abela's position in the party is not threatened in any way but the reduced gap dents his aura of invincibility. Fear of a downward spiral could dominate the next five years and this could trigger paranoia. Talk about who would succeed him as Labour leader will become more intense in the coming months, with po- tential successors starting to test the ground. With the risk of losing the next election no longer a re- mote possibility, Labour may even be tempted to consider a renewal of the leadership before then. The never-defeated Abela could call it a day midway through the leg- islature, paving the way for a suc- cessor who would be fresher than the PN leader. Moreover, the par- ty will also have to ask questions about why it has lost a large num- ber of votes. Any honest analysis will have to consider Abela's role and missteps in the campaign. Unlike Lawrence Gonzi after 2008, when his government won a one-seat majority, Abela has the comfort of a larger victory—five seats. But the reduced parliamen- tary majority could invigorate re- bel backbenchers if these are not taken on board. 3. Time to rediscover the party's soul Any internal analysis in the PL has to consider fundamental ques- tions about the party's identity and what it stands for. But it will be very difficult for such a discus- sion to take place while the party remains in power. Normally such reflection takes place within parties driven back into Opposition. Whether the party will conduct such a diagnosis remains doubtful, considering the risk of internal divisions emerg- ing in public. Yet, in the absence of internal discussion the party's identity crisis could become more acute. The campaign has already ex- posed tension between the party's social democratic identity and some of its grass roots' xenopho- bic instincts. The party is also fac- ing increased criticism from more principled socialists. 4. Civil society is a winner The result will embolden not just the Opposition but also civil society movements as well as lob- by groups, which will have more leverage in an electoral landscape, where losing a couple of thousand votes could cost an election. Civil society and the media do not compete with the PL and the PN for power, but they have the power to shift public discourse. Labour has often ignored this by resorting to bullying its way in the wake of its supermajorities. So far, this instinct was somewhat tem- pered by the fear of losing its su- permajority. But now this arrogance has to be tempered by the prospect of losing power. To neutralise this factor, Labour may choose to reach out and build new alliances on those themes where sections of civil so- ciety are closer to it than the PN. Overall, the result may have a humbling effect on Labour, which could reinvigorate it. But it could also make Labour even more par- anoid and inward looking, as hap- pened to the Gonzi administra- tion after 2008. Robert Abela