Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1545856
NEW government projections show the country remains at significant risk of failing to meet its legally binding 2030 nitrogen oxide (NOx) emission reduction targets. The warning emerges from the latest update to Malta's National Air Pollution Con- trol Programme (NAPCP), published for public consulta- tion by the Environment and Resources Authority (ERA) in June 2026. While Malta is currently compliant with all major pol- lutant ceilings for 2020 but NOx stands out as the only pollutant projected to breach its stricter 2030 limits. According to the analysis, the gap remains substantial. Un- der the 'With Measures' (WM) scenario—which assumes only already adopted policies are implemented—NOx emis- sions are projected to reach 3.88 kilotonnes by 2030. This is nearly double the legally permitted ceiling of 1.98 kilo- tonnes. Even under a more ambitious 'With Additional Measures' (WAM) scenario, which in- cludes further policy propos- als mostly consisting of incen- tives rather than prohibitions, Malta is still expected to fall short of compliance, under- scoring the scale of the chal- lenge ahead. Road transport accounts for 43% of emissions The road transport sector remains the dominant source of NOx pollution, accounting for 42.6% of national emis- sions in 2023. Passenger cars, buses and heavy-duty vehicles together produce the bulk of the estimated 4.22 kilotonnes emitted annually. Maritime activity also con- tributes significantly, with national navigation and ship- ping—particularly the Gozo Channel and fast ferry servic- es—accounting for 15.5% of total NOx emissions. To narrow the gap, govern- ment has outlined a package under the 'Reshaping Our Mo- bility' initiative, largely cen- tred on incentive-based meas- ures intended to encourage a gradual shift away from pri- vate car use rather than regu- latory restrictions. But rather than recommend- ing a more radical approach aimed at reducing emissions on a year-to-year basis the document lists a number of already announced proposals. These include the 'Surrender Your Licence Scheme', which would offer citizens up to €25,000 over five years to give up their driving licence and car ownership. A separate 'Be the Change 17+' programme targets younger residents, offering €6,000 in grants to 17-year-olds who opt for scooter use and delay obtain- ing a car licence until age 21. The strategy also includes wider system changes such as a proposed '24-Hour Econo- my' model, shifting public ser- vices, road maintenance and deliveries to off-peak hours to reduce congestion. On the infrastructure side, measures include retrofitting a Gozo Channel vessel to Tier III NOx standards and developing the Melita Transgas hydro- gen-ready pipeline to support energy-sector decarbonisation by 2030. Despite these measures, the NAPCP acknowledges that closing the emissions gap re- mains uncertain. Malta's insistence on flexibility A central feature of Malta's approach is its request for flex- ibility under the EU's National Emission Ceilings (NEC) Direc- tive, departing from the stand- ard linear reduction trajectory required between 2020 and 2030. Instead, Malta is applying a non-linear path that converg- es with the required emissions trajectory only after 2025. This approach is justified by a national socio-economic study which found that a strict linear pathway would impose an "ex- cessive additional burden" on low and middle-income house- holds. The government argues that such rigidity would risk disproportionate social costs, conflicting with the directive's requirement that environmen- tal measures remain economi- cally balanced. Crucially the term "exces- sive burden" is not defined by a specific monetary threshold or a set of criteria; rather, it is presented as a finding from a national high-level socio-eco- nomic study. This study de- termined that the measures required to meet Malta's 79% Nitrogen Oxide (NOx) reduc- tion target by 2030 through a strictly linear path would have significant socio-eco- nomic impacts. In this context, "linear trajectory" refers to reducing emissions by a con- sistent amount each year. The study found that forcing this straight-line progress would be too financially punishing for vulnerable households. But the alternative scenario of com- pensating this 'burden' with other social measures is not considered. While the flexibility mech- anism is explicitly grounded in socio-economic consider- ations, it also leaves Malta re- lying heavily on delayed con- vergence and incentive-based measures. This raises broader questions about the level of po- litical appetite for more restric- tive interventions in a context where private car dependence remains deeply entrenched. The revised approach there- fore seeks to balance economic and social pressures with en- vironmental obligations, but the programme itself concedes that even with these flexibili- ties and additional measures, achieving the 2030 target is not guaranteed. 5 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 15 JULY 2026 NEWS The road transport sector remains the dominant source of NOx pollution, accounting for 42.6% of national emissions in 2023 Latest air pollution plan shows Malta remains far off EU nitrogen oxide limits, relying on f lexible timelines and incentives as road transport continues to dominate emissions JAMES DEBONO jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt Malta set to miss 2030 NOx emission target