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WE live in an uncertain world. It feels as if every month a new crisis hits the headlines. In re- cent years the outgoing Sec- retary-general of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres, has repeatedly described the cur- rent situation as "dysfunction- al". The 2026 World Economic Forum Risk Report identified "uncertainty" as the defining theme of the current global out- look. Over the past six years I set out to investigate precisely this topic through my PhD research. In particular, I sought to un- derstand how key stakeholders around the world perceive the evolution of global affairs. To this end, I read through 332 speeches delivered by mem- bers of the G20 at the United Nations General Assembly be- tween 1990 and 2022, tracking their perspectives, concerns and commentary to try to un- derstand the causes of this un- certainty, and what they think is going wrong. At the outset, a straightfor- ward finding emerged vividly from these speeches. Govern- ments have long felt that their needs, expectations, and in- terests aren't being met. They point towards a perceived lack of results, the snowballing of transnational challenges, absent solutions, and the elusiveness of international peace and secu- rity. I classify this sentiment of dissatisfaction as a 'responsive- ness deficit'. In this respect, the uncertainty we are experiencing today is not something new or sudden. Rath- er, what changed is the framing. Whereas in the 1990s govern- ments optimistically tolerated this responsiveness deficit as part of a broader transition in international politics, by the mid-2010s discourse becomes increasingly alarmist—a crisis narrative emerges. The West and the Rest At a theoretical level, the dom- inant school of thought is that this uncertainty is a result of shifts in the distribution of pow- er following the 2008 financial crisis—the decline of the West and the rise of 'the Rest'. This led to fragmentation and an un- easy equilibrium of competing interests and influences. On the one hand, Western countries are going through a crisis of identity—Westlessness. Electorates, who feel they are the losers of globalisation, po- larised societies, alongside in- creasingly populist governments pursuing incoherent agendas and short-sighted foreign poli- cies which often amplify uncer- tainty, rather than mitigating it. On the other hand, emerging powers believe that they deserve more of a say in global affairs. Their speeches reflect palpable resentment driven by a sense of inequality—a sense that West- ern actors promote policies in- consistently (double standards), and that they seek to obstruct the economic development of the Global South. Meanwhile, even as analysis on the apparent decline of the USA flourishes, others point out that in terms of global influence what we are seeing is the oppo- site, a re-invigorated, embold- ened USA; a superpower ready to pursue policies even if they are potentially unpopular or risk alienating allies. John Ikenberry, a leading the- orist on the subject of global or- der writes about how the over- lap of competing perspectives, interests, and ideologies leads to "a crisis of purpose". More colloquially, some would say the world lacks leaders, and a lack of leadership leads to a lack of cer- tainty, what Ian Bremmer refers to as a "G-Zero world". Antagonism and status-based competition At a deeper level, the issue here is that as a symptom of this shift in the distibution of power, rela- tions between key stakeholders have become increasingly an- tagonistic. This is arguably the key driver of uncertainty. If rela- tions between the great powers deterioriate, if relations become adversarial rather than coop- erative, if they are unwilling to work together to solve global challenges, then international life becomes more uncertain. In his Theory of International Politics (1979) Kenneth Waltz, put forward the analysis that in a world where there is no over- arching authority compelling states to behave appropriately, orderly, predictable relations are hindered by a lack of "coac- tion" driven by mistrust. There is certainly a case to be made that governments are operating in a palpably low trust environ- ment today. Illustrating this trend, dis- course at the General Assembly has become increasingly adver- sarial, characterised by govern- ments making more and more accusations against each other. Moreover, rather than taking a step back to de-escalate and trying to find commonalities it seems, oddly enough, as if key stakeholders are almost content with this antagonism, fuelling division, exploiting crises and divergences. My research suggests that in fact, such antagonistic behav- iour is at least partially driven by competition over status. Re- searchers today recognise that status is not simply a product of hard power but a product of perceptions. The status of a country depends upon whether other actors recognise them as having such a status, good or bad: A bridge builder, a regional power, a principled defender of international law, a disruptor, a vassal state, a pariah state. An effective way of influencing perceptions is through the pro- motion of a narrative, project- ing a certain image. Often, this is done with a particular target audience in mind—domesti- cally, or internationally. In this sense, governments seeking to enhance their profile are target- ing crises strategically in order to promote certain narratives, situating themselves as champi- ons of a particular cause or allies of a particular government. In this respect, a key conclu- sion emerging from my analysis was that cleavages and prom- inent areas of divergence are targeted strategically by actors to elevate their status. They do so knowing that such behaviour may amplify division, obstruct cooperation, prolong problems and lead to more uncertainty. While we would hope that inter- national crises would bring gov- ernments together, seeing the bigger picture, in fact they are often exploited for short-term political gain. At a European level, the poli- cy pursued by some leaders to publicly criticise Spain due to events in Ceuta to scoop up po- litical points, rather than show- ing solidarity reflects this kind 4 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 13 SEPTEMBER 2026 OPINION Jonathan Engerer Why does it seem like the world becoming more uncertain? First Secretary, Ministry for Foreign and European Affairs