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7 News maltatoday, WEDNESDAY, 25 SEPTEMBER 2013 Angela's pyrrhic victory Angela Merkel won her party the best result since 1990, but with the liberals evicted from parliament, Germany's most popular politician is short of an automatic parliamentary majority. What options does Merkel have to govern? JAMES DEBONO ANGELA Merkel's Christian Democrats have won their best result since 1990, when her party, led by Helmut Kohl, was riding high on a wave of patriotism generated by the country's reunification. Led by the divorced and remarried, East German, Protestant leader, the CDU has become less conservative in social mores and more centrist in economic policy, two factors which would make a grand coalition with the social democrats a natural outcome of last Sunday's election, which saw the SPD gaining a miserly 26% of the vote and the free market, liberal FDP evicted from parliament. Over the past decade, Merkel dismissed comparisons with the British 'Iron Lady' Margaret Thatcher by steering away from the free market agenda pushed by her more liberal allies and the moral conservatism of her Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union. Contrary to what happened in Malta in March, it was the relatively clean bill of health for the economy which ultimately decided the fate of the election. But while Gonzi was unable to navigate the troubled waters of a single party – albeit one with a one-seat majority – Merkel managed to increase her share of the vote, despite splitting power with social democrats during her first five years and with liberals in the second five years. Moreover, it was her coalition partners who ended up paying the cost of Merkel's increased popularity. Angela Merkel A choice of partners Yet while Merkel's re-election as dominant coalition partner was never put into question during the campaign, it was the fate of the CDU's traditional allies (the liberal Free Democrats) which offered some hope to the social democrats in their bid to return to power, albeit as reluctant junior coalition partners. But any such role may well prove to be a poisoned chalice. For after Merkel's first term, her Social Democratic coalition partner recorded its worst election result since World War II. With the liberals evicted from parliament for the first time since 1948, numbers exist for three different coalition arrangements, namely a grand coalition of the two big parties – the Christian and Social Democrats – a After Merkel's first term, her Social Democratic coalition partner recorded its worst election result since World War II coalition between the CDU and the greens and an alliance between the three left-wing parties. Technically, despite her personal triumph, Merkel can still be ousted from power by a coalition composed of Social Democrats, the left and the greens, which would have enough seats for a majority. But both the SPD and the greens have ruled out entering a coalition with the left. The left party is still shunned for its association with the East German regime. Technically, the party is the successor of the SED, even if its leaders include prominent lawyer Gregor Gysi, who used to defend East German dissidents. Moreover, bad blood still runs deep due to former SPD leader Oskar Lafontaine's role in the merger between the East German communists and disillusioned social democrats in the west, after rebelling against Gerhard Schroeder's government. But the electoral consistency of the left party, which is now Germany's third largest, could well mean that the social democrats will never be in a position to govern if they keep excluding the left party. A green-black coalition? One other possibility is for Merkel to enter a coalition with the greens. Similar coalitions have existed at local level, with the greens teaming up with the CDU and liberals in 'Jamaica coalitions' in Hamburg and the Saarland, but neither of these experiments survived an entire legislature. Although Merkel's decision to ditch nuclear power makes such an alliance a greater possibility, the prospect remains unlikely, due to profound ideological and cultural differences. Despite the fact that both parties appeal to the middle-class constituencies, the greens are markedly more liberal on social values and more left wing in fiscal and social policy. Through the election, the greens advocated higher taxes for highincome earners and distinguished themselves by proposing weekly 'veggie days' in canteens – a proposal which attracted the scorn of the tabloid press in the sausage-loving nation. In fact, the greens have struggled hard to reconcile their left-wing roots with their increasingly middleclass appeal, following an explosion in support in 2011, when for months the party was running neck-in-neck to the SPD in the polls. While the election result offers the greens the chance to play king makers after a long spell in opposition, the party is not keen on a coalition which would deepen internal rifts. Though Merkel has hinted that she will at least sound out the greens as she seeks to build a coalition, there is little appetite on either side for an alliance. Indeed, Horst Seehofer, the head of the Christian Social Union (the Bavarian sister party to Merkel's Christian Democrats) ruled out a partnership with the greens in an interview with Der Spiegel: "I can only say that a flirtation with the greens, particularly in its current costellation, would immediately strengthen the extremist right wing." Recent history shows that Merkel's coalition partners suffered in subsequent elections, with the social democrats losing heavily in the 2008 election after serving in a grand coalition and the liberals losing parliamentary representation after scoring a record 13% in the 2008 election. The return of the grand coalition This means that the most probable outcome for Germany is an uneasy grand coalition between Christian and Social Democrats. Yet this time around, the Social Democrats will struggle hard to push their social agenda. But with Merkel riding high on a strong personal victory, it would be hard for the socialists to distinguish themselves. Once again, they risk playing second fiddle to the Christian Democrats. As Der Spiegel notes, this is a pairing Germany has seen before, most recently from 2005 to 2009. "And now, it is looking increasingly likely that a redux is looming – to the point that prominent SPD politicians are starting to draw their red lines for European policy." In comments to Der Spiegel, Martin Schulz, president of European Parliament and a leading member of the SPD, appealed to Merkel to take the social hardships facing many across Europe more seriously. He said more needed to be done to address high youth unemployment in EU countries in Southern Europe that have been hard-hit by the debt crisis. In fact one consequence of a grand coalition would be greater German sensitivity to the plight of struggling European nations and a strengthen- ing of the Berlin-Paris alliance. But a less assertive German policy in Europe could further boost the eurosceptic Alternative for Germany party, which advocates the dismantling of the euro and is opposed to bailouts for countries like Greece. One of its campaign adverts featured outraged (though pleasantlooking) citizens: a father and his daughter, a newspaper-reading businesswoman and a cyclist, looking thoughtful while asking questions. "Why is all our money going to Greece instead of being invested in damaged streets and bridges?" "Why are pensioners left with an ever-smaller amount of money in their wallets?" Manfred Güllner, head of German polling institute Forsa, has warned the political establishment not to dismiss the new party. "They are not just a single-issue protest party, or else they wouldn't have made it this far. They are a socially acceptable organisation with clear right-wing affiliations – that is an extremely dangerous combination." In fact, the party's anti-euro stance is accompanied by anti-immigrant rhetoric. One of its slogans, "Immigration according to qualification, not welfare" is reminiscent of a similar line used by the right-wing, extremist NPD. Yet the new party drew voters from across the political spectrum – 230,000 AfD voters had previously supported Chancellor Merkel's center-right Christian Democrats and 150,000 their center-left Social Democrat challengers. A further 150,000 AfD voters hadn't voted in the previous elections.

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