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9 2013 in review maltatoday, SUNDAY, 29 DECEMBER 2013 MaltaToday called it! mt survey After correctly predicting the outcome of last March's general election, MaltaToday's monthly surveys – conducted by JAMES DBEONO – continued to explore the altered fabric of the social and political landscape after an epochal change in government Chronicles of an election foretold THE 12-point advantage Labour enjoyed over the PN tallied with the 11.7 point difference predicted in the last pre-electoral MaltaToday survey. MaltaToday was the only media outlet to publish surveys during the election campaign. A total of eight surveys gave Labour a lead that ranged from 10 to 14 points, confirming that the PL had attracted a significant amount of Nationalist voters. Support for AD ranged between 1.5% and 2.5%, which roughly tallied with the 1.8% garnered in the general election. MaltaToday had previously correctly predicted the results of the 2008 general election, the MEP election in 2009 and the divorce referendum. Leading with 11 points in January, Labour increased the gap to 14 points in the third week of the campaign in the wake of the oil scandal. Over the fourth week of the campaign, the gap was cut from 14 to 12 points. The last two surveys saw a stabilization at 12 points. The last survey showed the PN losing 9.5% of its 2008 voters to the PL, and a further 2.5% to AD. This Meritocracy betrayed? March 6 29.4 41.1 2.5 2.6 24.4 lating into a loss of 12.6% of its percentage support in 2008. And for the first time, Muscat was more trusted than Gonzi. Do you agree with the law through which non-EU nationals would acquire Maltese citizenship by paying €650,000? dropped by nearly 10 points since May, with only 36% now believing that Labour was honouring its central electoral promise. Those who believe that Labour was 'not always' honouring increased by 10 points, while those who said the pledge was not being honoured increased by 5 points. Significantly, a third of Labour voters and 40% of switchers were not convinced Labour was implementing its promise in full. Over two-thirds of PN voters said Labour was disregarding it entirely. Yes Only if accompanied by investment No Don't know In its appointments is Labour honouring its 'Malta Taghna Lkoll' pledge? May 46 16.4 20.2 17.4 means that the PN was losing 12% of its 2008 voters to the other two parties. The election result showed the PN losing 6.2 points since 2008 – trans- February 24 30.7 41.8 2.3 3.7 21.5 The citizenship debacle THOSE who believed Labour was honouring its 'Malta Taghna Lkoll' pledge Yes Not always No Don't know January 13 26.9 37.9 1.5 2.6 31.1 PN PL AD Not voting No answer November 26 9.8 53.1 11.1 December 25.7 14.3 49.1 10.9 TWO surveys held in November and December showed widespread disagreement with the proposed Individual Investor Programme, which will allow non-EU nationals to become Maltese citizens by €650,000, buying a €350,000 property, and €150,000 in government stocks. Only 26% agreed with the scheme, but the latest survey showed a small four-point drop in outright opposition to the scheme and a five-point increase among those who would like the €650,000 donation to be accompanied by a more tangible investment in the Maltese economy. But a strong 49% majority were against the scheme, despite the removal of the controversial secrecy clause. 39% of switchers and 22% of Labour voters remained firmly opposed to the scheme. December 36.3 27.1 25.1 11.5 Simon Busuttil's struggle to reach out beyond the core AFTER the PN's leadership contest, only half of PN voters in 2013 felt Simon Busuttil was the best choice for the party to reach out to voters who deserted the PN in the last general election. Moreover, only 7% of switchers and 6% of Labourites were of the same opinion. The survey confirmed the trend emerging before Busuttil's election, where those who voted PN in 2013 preferred Busuttil, a majority of Labourites and switchers preferred contender Mario de Marco. The following electoral result among party councillors in the first round of the election reflected the support the two front-runners enjoyed among Nationalist voters. The trust gap between Joseph Muscat and Simon Busuttil confirmed the latter's difficulty to reach out to switchers and Labour voters: one reason is Busuttil's role as Lawrence Gonzi's 'Number 2' throughout the general election campaign. Was Simon Busuttil the best choice to reach out to voters who deserted PN in last general election? (May) All 23.3 53.3 23.4 Yes No Don't know New government, new concerns THE election of a Labour government resulted in growing concerns about the environment, jobs and immigration and transport-related issues, and a lower concern for the cost of living and utility bills. Concern about the environment shot up from 5% to 12% in June, as one of the two top concerns for respondents. Immigration went from 2% before the first arrivals of the year to 11% in December 2013. Concern about the cost of living, expressed by 67% of respondents in 2009, had already fallen to 27% in June, and now to an all-time low of 13%. Moreover, concern on utility bills, Labour's electoral trump card, feel from 50% in 2010 to 20% in June and just 7% now – a confirmation perhaps, that respondents are reassured by the new government's plan to reduce these bills. Environment was a top concern of 16% of PN voters, compared to just 6% of Labour voters; migration was a top concern for 13% of PL voters and only 7% of PN voters. Significantly, concern about employment has now emerged as the top concern of the Maltese people. This is a complete reversal of the situation under the previous administration, when concern about jobs was always surpassed by the cost of living and utility bills. Concern about health services has also risen dramatically, by eight points Muscat's enduring popularity SURVEYS held between April and December showed Joseph Muscat's performance as Prime Minister being judged positively by a majority of respondents. But his approval rating dipped from 59% immediately after the election to 42% in July. It show up again after the summer to 51% in October, only to fall to 47% in December. Muscat also enjoyed a higher degree of trust than new opposition leader Simon Busuttil, whose trust rating increased from 26% in June to 31% in October, reflecting his consolidation among the PN's grassroots after being elected leader. But Busuttil trailed Muscat, who enjoyed an advantage of between 13 and 17 points. While Muscat's popularity endured, some members of his cabinet have already reached the pits. In October, barely 28% approved Anton Refalo's performance as Minister for Gozo. from just 2% last year, to 11% now. And a greater diversity of concerns expressed by respondents has seen 27% (up from 19% in June) saying they were worried about roads, traffic and public transport. Green is back? In July, 60% said they were against spring hunting and favoured the demolition of the illegal Armier shacks – suggesting widespread support for a ban on spring hunting if a referendum on this issue were to be held. Only 28% would vote against removing hunting in spring. Significantly, 78% of university-educated respondents, 71% of those aged PN voters 49.5 23.8 26.7 PL voters 5.7 80.3 14 between 18 and 34 and 63% of PN voters said they would vote against spring hunting. On the other hand, a smaller majority against spring hunting exists among the secondary educated (56%), persons aged 35 -54 (52%) and PL voters (49%). A slim majority – 52% – would prefer to improve or retain the existing sea transport between Malta and Gozo rather than building a permanent link between the two islands, an idea that is supported by 46% of respondents. Moreover, while 47% think that a bridge would spoil the view of the Gozo channel, 38% believe that a bridge would enhance the landscape. Fear of invasion Following a botched pushback of migrants to Libya, in August the Mal- Switchers 6.8 76.9 16.3 tese were shown to be mostly fearful of being "invaded" by boat people, or seeing their country "taken over" by migrants. This 'siege mentality' was evident in about a fifth of the Maltese population, mostly without a university education and having voted Labour in 2013. 55% supported the pushback, mainly Labour voters and lacking a tertiary education; while a majority of Nationalist voters and tertiary-educated voters rejected this solution, decreed illegal by the European Court of Human Rights. 33% estimated the number of migrants still living in Malta to between 3,000 and 6,000; but a substantial 27% believed more than 12,000 migrants lived in Malta. These misinformed respondents were more likely to support the pushbacks. How do you rate Joseph Muscat's performance as Prime Minister? Positive Negative So-So Don't know April 59 5.6 13.4 21.9 June 46.4 9.5 28.7 15.5 July 42.1 8.4 26.3 23.2 October 50.6 14.7 23.4 11.3 December 46.6 16.4 20.2 17.4 Between Simon Busuttil and Joseph Muscat whom do you trust most? Joseph Muscat Simon Busuttil None Don't Know June 43.3 25.9 9.2 21.6 July 39.7 26.7 8.4 25.1 October 47.4 31.1 7,2 14.3 December 46.4 29.6 11.2 12.8