Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/271600
maltatoday, WEDNESDAY, 5 MARCH 2014 News 6 JURGEN BALZAN DESPITE Russian President Vladimir Putin's claims that the use of force in the Ukraine was a " last resort," Russian soldiers yes- terday shot warning shots in an at- tempt to ward off Ukrainian serv- icemen marching on an airbase in Crimea. A dozen Russian soldiers at the Belbek base – which is under Rus- sian control – warned the un- armed Ukrainian soldiers not to approach before firing the warn- ing shots and reportedly threat- ened to shoot if the men marched any closer towards them. Undoubtedly, the root of the unrest in Ukraine is rooted in its financial woes. While on the one hand, the deal offered by the EU is neoliberal, Russia is offering a different kind of deal, including a handsome financial package. Yet, the Russian offer propelled fears that its imperialistic aspira- tions could absorb the Ukraine, and animosit y towards Moscow and extreme right-wing move- ments toppled the democrati- cally elected Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukov ych. The contradictory and confusing signals emanating from the region expose the complex situation, which has seen the US threaten to impose sanctions on Russia if Pu- tin does not withdraw his forces from eastern Ukraine. Russian troops from the Black Sea f leet have seized military bases, airports and strategic lo- cations, including government buildings and broadcast centres. This invasion underlines Mos- cow's longstanding strategic in- terest in Crimea and its intent to undermine the new government in Kiev which is struggling to estab- lish its authorit y over the coun- try's east. After 20 years of relative peace, the crisis poses the biggest threat to securit y in Europe since the Balkan wars, and the west's reac- tion has been somewhat weak, al- lowing Putin to call the shots. Moreover, Russia's swift decision to occupy Crimea gives away its urgency to secure its naval bases in the 'warm water port' in the Black Sea, given the growing pos- sibilit y of the Russian Nav y losing its stronghold in Syria. Back to the Cold War? Roderick Pace, the head of the Institute for European Studies at the Universit y of Malta, explained that EU member states were split in two camps, with one pulling the American line for tough reprisals against Russia and others who opted for a negotiated solution. Speaking to MaltaToday, Pace noted that all EU countries agreed that, "international law must be observed " and that the sover- eignt y of the Ukraine should be respected. "I think Russia's choice to re- solve the issue – which is after all an internal Ukraine one – by force or to threaten the use of force is a no-goer, and the international communit y would do well to react in a tough manner. But not before diplomacy is given a fair chance of succeeding. What does Russia want? Another war in Europe? Is this really what it is thinking?" He added that the current crisis is more than a diplomatic wrangle since Russia went as far as deploy- ing its troops in the Crimea and "carried out some pre-scheduled war games close to Ukraine's East- er border, blocked the Ukrainian f leet in Crimea to humiliate and provoke that country as if we were still living in the times of the Tsar." Pace however said that the con- fusion reigning in the region might blur the underlying issues, noting that Russia wants to draw the Ukraine into the Eurasian Un- ion it is setting up, while the EU provided a counter-offer which does not preclude strong econom- ic relations with Russia. "The people of the Ukraine de- posed their President who op- posed an agreement with the EU. This is an internal political mat- ter. At the same time the Ukraine is a strategic transit country for some of the gas f lowing from Rus- sia to Europe." He explained that the gas f low is important for both the EU and Russia, "which needs to sell its gas". Pace added that both sides must recognise their interdepend- ence and the need for an adequate compromise – but not at the cost of the Ukraine. "Who said that an EU-Ukraine Partnership precludes Russia- Ukraine economic linkages and trade? Are we living on the moon or in a globalised world of free movement of capital, goods, serv- ices and people? I am surprised that despite its size, military and cultural might, the many Rus- sians and their assets abroad in many countries all over the world, Russia still behaves with a siege mentalit y. Don't tell me that Rus- sia risks collapsing should the Ukraine conclude a partnership agreement with the EU?" However, on an optimistic note, Pace said that the crisis will only escalate if Russia, the US, Europe and the Ukraine "are ready to es- calate it". He believes that if Russia with- draws its military forces and stops all military actions, the chances of a negotiated settlement will im- prove considerably. Although praising the caution shown by the new Ukranian gov- ernment and the west, Pace said "the EU and the USA are right in threatening tough non-military action. This will surely make Mr Putin weigh the likely costs of his actions and hopefully take a more reasonable stand. There are peace- ful solutions that can satisf y all, particularly those of the Ukraine which wants to determine its own future". Putin dampens fears of annexation This week, Julia Tymoshenko claimed that the Russian State Duma "has started listening of the draft of the law of annexation of Crimea from the Ukraine. It's only a question of time when it [will] be voted ". Crimea, which was only trans- ferred to the Ukrainian Soviet So- cialist Republic in 1954, is mostly made up of Russians and it is widely expected that the majorit y of Crimeans vote for greater au- tonomy from Kiev. The former Ukrainian prime minister added, "We all know that votes in Duma will be found. That's why Russia is escalating the crisis now. And the world should understand, should realise, that Ukraine on its own won't be able to solve this issue with Russia on its own. Absolutely not possible." However, in his televised press conference yesterday, Putin in- sisted that he was not thinking of annexing Crimea, " but people there should enjoy the right to self-determination". Yet, Tymoshenko's fears are com- pounded by the fact that Crimea's new pro-Moscow premier, Sergei Aksenov, moved the date of the peninsula's referendum on its au- tonomy status to 30 March, which could legitimise Russia's possible decision to annex Crimea. JURGEN BALZAN tempt to ward off Ukrainian serv- icemen marching on an airbase in ing shots and reportedly threat- ened to shoot if the men marched eignt y of the Ukraine should be respected. agreement with the EU?" However, on an optimistic note, The complexities of the Ukrainian crisis Russian soldiers marching into Crimea