Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/294639
maltatoday, SUNDAY, 13 APRIL 2014 16 JAMES DEBONO THE second MaltaToday survey on voting intentions for next May's elec- tions for the European Parliament shows Labour leading the PN by 4 points, down from 7 last month. This suggests the PN has cut La- bour's 12-point lead in the last gen- eral election, by eight points. But rather than a shift from PL to PN, the result reflects a higher rate of indecision and abstention among Labour voters in the last general election. In a sign of rising political tension, both parties gained ground, with the PN increasing its support by six points and the PL by three. But with no significant shifts between the two main parties, the decrease in the gap from the 2013 election result can be solely attributed to a segment of La- bour voters who are still undecided or intent on not voting in next May's election. In fact the survey shows that while the PN has managed to consolidate its core of 2013 voters, the PL is struggling to motivate its voters. 85% of voters who said they voted PN in 2013, are sure of voting PN again; only 75% of PL voters will do like- wise so far. But the survey also shows that if Labour motivates its 2013 voters, it can yet extend its lead, because 2% of those PL voters will vote PN and these are counterbalanced by 2% of PN voters who will now vote PL. The bad news for the Labour is that a segment of their voters have lost trust in party leader Joseph Muscat, who faces the first internal trouble in his party following a Cabinet reshuf- fle that followed the resignation of health minister Godfrey Farrugia. Muscat's trust rating has not only fallen by four points, but 8.2% of La- bour voters in the last general elec- tion now trust neither party leader. Simon Busuttil on the other, who stays 10 points behind Muscat, gets the trust of 91% of PN voters. PN cuts lead to four points While the PN's support increased by six points since last month, La- bour only registered a three-point increase, while undecided respond- ents fell by 9 points. There were no significant shifts be- tween the two main parties, with 2% of both PN and PL voters intending to switch sides in May. The PN consolidated its 2013 vote by 10%, now commanding the sup- port of 85% of these voters. But La- bour's increased by six, from 69% in March to 75% now. This suggests that the PN is being more successful in mobilising its core voters while making small in- roads among switchers (who voted PL in 2013 and PN in 2008): among this category, 11% now intend to vote for the PN. The good news for Labour is that the percentage of its 2013 voters in- tent on not voting has shrunk from 11% to 4%, but the percentage of non-voters remains higher among Labour voters, since only 1% of PN voters are intent on not voting. And 15% of Labour voters are still undecided, compared to just 6% of Nationalist voters, suggesting that the PN starts with a more solid block despite having a restricted vote base. Additionally, 42% of voters who voted PN in 2008 and PL in 2013 – switchers – remain undecided, sug- gesting their allegiance cannot be taken for granted. Alternattiva Demokratika has re- covered the support it had in the last general election (2%), attracting a small segment of switchers and PN voters, while retaining most of its previous voters. Marlene Mizzi gains ground in Labour camp Former prime minister Alfred Sant and incumbent MEP Roberta Met- sola have consolidated their front- runner status for MEP. The latter's position amongst PN voters remains unchanged, while Sant increases La- bour votes by five points. In second place are David Casa (PN) and Miriam Dalli (PL) albeit losing some ground in their respec- tive camps. Among Labour voters, it is Mar- lene Mizzi who is emerging as the strongest candidate for the third seat, gaining seven points among Labour voters at Dalli's expense: she now is just two points behind Dalli in the Labour race. Compared to last month, Mizzi gains seven points among current PL voters at the expense of Miriam Dalli. Mizzi is now just two points JOSEPH MUSCAT'S TRUST RATING FALLS BY FOUR POINTS, 20% OF LABOUR VOTERS SAY THEY ARE UNDECIDED European elections, Labour four points ahead 16 mt survey ! " # #" #! # ! ! # ! " !" " ! " " ! "# " $%&' ()'*' " *'+' " '%,'' *'*-- .,+%,'/' +'0' %,'' ,,'+ ! $%&' *'+' " *'*-- ,,'+ ! " ! ()'*' '%,'' .,+%,'/' ! +'0' " "" $ " ! "# $ % 1*2/' &+322 4 12 12 /) /+) *'/" " " ! "# $ & 1*2/' &+322 4 1*2/' &+322 4 "% 1*2/' &+322 4 5,6*%'%' " ! " # #" #! # ! ! # ! " !" " ! " " ! "# " $%&' ()'*' " *'+' " '%,'' *'*-- .,+%,'/' +'0' %,'' ,,'+ ! $%&' *'+' " *'*-- ,,'+ ! " ! ()'*' '%,'' .,+%,'/' ! +'0' " "" $ " ! "# $ % 1*2/' &+322 4 12 12 /) /+) *'/" " " ! "# $ & 1*2/' &+322 4 1*2/' &+322 4 "% 1*2/' &+322 4 5,6*%'%' " Alfred Sant Roberta Metsola Miriam Dalli David Casa Marlene Mizzi Therese Comodini Cachia Norman Vella Arnold Cassola Clint Camilleri Others Don't know 32.6 14.0 8.1 4.2 4.1 3.7 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.2 5.3 ! " # #" #! # ! ! # ! " !" " ! " " ! "# " $%&' ()'*' " *'+' " '%,'' *'*-- .,+%,'/' +'0' %,'' ,,'+ ! $%&' *'+' " *'*-- ,,'+ ! " ! ()'*' '%,'' .,+%,'/' ! +'0' " "" $ " ! "# $ % 1*2/' &+322 4 12 12 /) /+) *'/" " " ! "# $ & 1*2/' &+322 4 1*2/' &+322 4 "% 1*2/' &+322 4 5,6*%'%' " 75 15.3 85.1 1.6 25.5 31.7 32.7 35.3 1.3 18.0 5.3 5.2 2.1 0.7 0.5 1.4 4.3 6.4 4.3 3.3 25.5 17.0 9.2 9.0 0.5 0 PN PL AD Not voting Don't know No Reply PN PL AD Not voting Don't know No Reply PN PL AD Others Not voting Don't know No Reply PN PL AD Others Not voting Don't know No Reply 6.2 2.6 0.5 -0.1 -8.5 -0.2 -0.5