Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/296073
maltatoday, WEDNESDAY, 16 APRIL 2014 9 News PHOTOGRAPHY BY RAY ATTARD Simon's way out… Unity at any price? impression that Busuttil is pander- ing to popular misconceptions. Ironically, Busuttil's use of the 80% figure gave Muscat the opportunity to appear as a principled leader who is ready to stand up for minorities, even if this goes against the prejudice of the majority. Obviously nothing could be fur- ther from reality than this. Just last summer, Muscat was actively con- sidering the possibility of pushing back migrants to Libya. Moreover, he has consistently pandered to the most volatile sectors of the elector- ate – including hunters, squatters, and building contractors and on this occasion liberal and gay voters. In fact, this move is part and par- cel of Muscat's strategy: to defy the views of silent, and static, majorities who aren't likely to change their vot- ing patterns – despite their views on a particular issue – in order to, in turn, appease minorities who are more likely change their vote over the same issue. Muscat himself has gone a long way from opposing gay marriage and gay adoptions in his first statements on the subject in 2008, to supporting a law which effectively brings about full equality. By the next election, Muscat may well galvanise the lib- eral vote by going one step further: that of institutionalising gay mar- riage, thus leaving the PN in another quandary. In fact, even from purely electoral considerations, Busuttil's stance may well backfire. While it remains true that surveys show a majority against gay adoptions. But the intensity of feeling amongst the minority supporting the new law may well be greater than the luke- warm reservations expressed by a more complacent majority. Moreover, with the church largely silent on this issue, militant opposi- tion to the bill is best represented by nutters like Gordon Manche, whose antics helped to galvanise support for the bill in the past. While the PN has not actively voted against the bill, the doubts it expresses on adoption may well be perceived as a legitimisation of prejudice against children brought up by gay parents. Moreover, it is easier for people with no particularly strong feelings on this issue to identify with the joy in St George Square, than with spoil- sports who could not bring them- selves to vote for a bill whose only consequence is making segment of the population happier. Misunderstanding polls A MaltaToday survey in November showed that only 25% supported the civil unions law in its entirety while 45% supported the new law, except for the clause giving same sex cou- ples the possibility adopt. Only 26% opposed the law in its entirety. On a superficial level, the survey suggests that more than 70% are op- posed to adoption by gay couples but a careful analysis of this survey sug- gests that the PN's abstention may backfire among strategic sectors of the electorate. Significantly, among 18- to 34- year-olds, only 10% are opposed to the new law on civil partnerships. Although a majority of young voters (53%) have reservations on grant- ing gay couples adoption rights, a sizeable 35% support full equality including adoption rights. This sug- gests that any Opposition to the new bill would alienate a large chunk of younger voters. The survey also suggests a split in the educated middle class which traditionally has supported the Na- tionalist Party but in which Labour has made some inroads over the past few years. University-educated respondents tend to be the most polarised cat- egory, being the most likely to favour adoption rights but also more likely to oppose civil unions than respond- ents with a post secondary or sec- ondary education. In fact, among this category, un- conditional support for the new law rises to 37% compared to just 20% among respondents with a second- ary education. But opposition to civil unions is also higher, with 39% of university- educated respondents opposed to the new status. The university educated are less likely to go half way, with only 22% supporting the new law while ex- pressing a reservation on adoption. On the other hand, 45% of respond- ents with a post-secondary education and 51% of those with a secondary education take this middle-of-the- road approach. Support for the new law with adoption rights included is obvi- ously higher among Labour voters (29%) than among Nationalist voters (12%). But the survey also shows a strong- er support for gay adoptions among switchers who voted PN in 2008 and Labour in 2013. Among this cat- egory, 38% support the new law in its entirety. This suggests that Monday's ab- stention left a tenth of present PN voters unrepresented by their party, and could pose a stumbling block for switchers who might be tempted to vote PN again. The survey also showed changing demographics, which suggest that society is becoming more liberal. Although only 25% agree with granting same sex couples adoption rights, this still represents a remark- able increase from 2007 when a Eurobarometer survey showed that only 7% agreed with adoptions by same-sex couples. In fact the survey showed that La- bour Party voters, younger people and the university educated are more likely to support adoption rights for same sex people while Nationalist voters, older respondents and people with a lower level of education are more likely to be opposed. This is problematic for a party which in other historical moments – such as 1987 and 2003 – managed to project itself as being in sync with younger and more educated voters. Changed social imaginary On a deeper level, the PN's absten- tion also represents a failure to com- prehend the worldview of a strategic sector of the educated and liberal electorate. Most damaging to the PN is the fact that this segment of the elector- ate includes highly influential people in the arts, media and cultural sec- tors. Alienating these people may have damaging consequences for a political party struggling to rebuild a political hegemony. Moreover, the PN can easily build inroads amongst this category due to the PL's 'Tea Party' outlook on immi- gration, hunting, fireworks and land use. Ultimately, Monday's vote shows that as leader, Busuttil has man- aged to re-unite his party and to re- invigorate a devastated Opposition. However, he still fails to inspire and reach out beyond the confines of the party's restricted vote base. No wonder the latest MaltaToday survey shows the PN edging closer to Labour thanks to disillusionment among a sector of Labour voters, while at the same time making no significant inroads among Labour voters and switchers. Monday's vote may well have reignited enthusiasm among a segment of younger Labour voters and dented the party's at- tempts to lure switchers. Busuttil also helped project Joseph Muscat as a principled leader, a title which he deserves on this particular issue but which contrasts with his so far abysmal record on meritocracy, planning policies and good govern- ance. It is probably easier for people who don't feel strongly about gay rights either way, to sympathise with those joyous crowd at St George's Square last Monday, than with the Nationalists: effectively spoilsports who could not bring themselves to vote for a bill whose only consequence would be to make a segment of the population happier