Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/306555
maltatoday, SUNDAY, 4 MAY 2014 X JAMES DEBONO THE third MaltaToday survey on voting intentions for elections for the European Parliament due on May 24 shows the PL leading the PN by 8 points, up from 4 points last month. This suggests that the PL has re- versed losses in last April's survey, which saw the gap between the PL and PN reduced from 7 points in March to just 4 points. The survey confirms Alfred Sant as Labour's front-runner for the race but for the first time shows incum- bent Marlene Mizzi in second place before newcomer Miriam Dalli. Among PN voters, Roberta Metsola and David Casa are clear favourites, with no clear favourite emerging for a possible third seat for the party. The increase in Labour's lead can be attributed to an increase in unde- cided respondents, which is equiva- lent to the PN's losses in the survey. Moreover, the percentage of PN voters in 2013 who are now unde- cided has increased by 4 points since last month. The survey also shows PN leader Simon Busuttil losing 6 points in his trust rating and a 16-point gap be- tween the two leaders, up from 10 last month. Moreover, although only 1% of 2013 PN voters intend changing their vote to Labour on May 24, 6% of these voters have more trust in Muscat than in Busuttil. The survey was held after the PN's controversial abstention on civil un- ions and the start of the electoral campaign. This indicates that the party's abstention on the bill has dis- oriented a segment of PN voters. For the first time, the party is also expe- riencing a small shift to Alternattiva Demokratika. The survey shows no significant shifts from PL to PN and vice versa and both parties are still struggling to recover their full 2013 voting base. The survey shows both parties recov- ering 80% of their 2013 vote base. But the survey shows a small de- crease in segment of Labour voters who are still undecided or intent on not voting in next May's election and an increase in this segment among PN voters. The survey indicates that if Labour manages to motivate more of its 2013 voters, the party's lead could be even greater. PL enjoys 8 point lead While the PN has seen its sup- port decrease by 6 points since last month, the PL has lost one percent- age point. Surprisingly, two weeks after the start of the campaign, both major parties have lost some support amidst an increase in undecided voters and respondents who would not reveal their intention. This could suggest that a segment of the electorate is not enticed by a full blown electoral campaign where political parties are organis- ing daily activities. The survey also shows small gains by AD, which is attracting a small 3-point shift from the PN and a smaller 1-point shift from the PL. The survey shows no significant shifts between the two main par- ties. In fact, only 1% of PN voters and 1% of PL voters in 2013 intend switching sides. But compared to last month, the percentage of PN voters in 2013 who intend to vote PN again in May has decreased by 5 points. This was accompanied by a cor- responding increase in the per- centage of undecided voters in the cohort of PN voters in the last gen- eral election. This reverses the gains experi- enced by the party in the last sur- vey, which saw the percentage of PN voters intent on voting again increase by 10 points from March. This suggests that recent political events, like the abstention on the civil union bill, have demoralised a segment of PN voters. On the other hand, the percent- age of PL voters in 2013 who in- tend to vote for the PL again on 24 May has increased by 4 points. This means that support among the PL's 2013 cohort of voters has increased from 69% in March to 79% now. While the PN started the race with the advantage of attracting more of its core voters than the PL, the survey now shows both par- ties attracting around 80% of their 2013 voters. This suggests that Joseph Mus- cat's constant appeals to the party's core voters – whom he referred to as the 'soldiers of steel' during his May Day address – is paying off. But the PL still has to convince 4% of its voters who have already decided not to vote in MEP elec- tions. Less than 2% of PN voters are of the same opinion. But the percentage of Labour vot- ers intent on not voting has shrunk from 11% in March to 4% now. Moreover, the survey shows an increase in the number of switch- ers who intend to vote Labour again. 50% (up from 37%) of voters who voted PN in 2008 and PL in 2013 have decided to vote PL again. Marlene Mizzi surpasses Dalli in Labour camp The survey shows former Labour leader Alfred Sant and incumbent MEP Roberta Metsola retaining their position as the front runners of their respective parties. While Metsola's has lost 2 points, Sant registers a 3-point decrease. But the survey shows Miriam Dalli losing ground in the Labour camp, being surpassed by incumbent Mar- lene Mizzi, who was just 2 points be- hind in the last month's survey. Both Mizzi and Dalli enjoy a wide lead over other Labour candidates. Although Sant, Mizzi and Dalli are emerging as the favourites for La- bour's probable three seats, other candidates could return in the game if they benefit from vote transfers from Alfred Sant. The survey also suggests that Clint Camilleri retained his support among Gozitan respondents. In the PN camp, in this survey the two incumbents (Metsola and Ca- sa) remain firmly in the lead. This month's survey shows a three-way race between Therese Comodini Cachia, Norman Vella and Francis Zammit Dimech for the party's pos- sible third seat. Due to the margin of error, it is very Europe 2014 mt survey Labour 8 points ahead Campaign start for MEP elections sees Labour widening lead from four to eight points, as Simon Busuttil loses six points in trust rating after abstaining in civil unions vote. Electoral fatigue sees increase in respondents who are either undecided or who refused to reveal voting intentions April May % Change 85.1 80.2 -4.9 2.1 0.9 -1.2 0.7 2.6 +1.9 - - - 1.4 1.7 +0.3 6.4 10.3 +3.9 4.3 4.3 - April May % Change PN 31.7 25.6 -6.1 PL 35.3 34 -1.3 AD 1.8 2.3 +0.5 Others 0 0 - Not voting 5.2 5.8 +0.6 Don't know 17 20 +3 No reply 9 12.3 +3.3 April May % Change 1.6 0.6 -1 75 78.8 +3.8 0.5 1.3 +0.8 - - - 4.3 3.8 -0.5 15.3 12.9 -2.4 3.3 2.6 -0.7 For which party will you vote for in MEP elections due on 24 May? PN voters in 2013 PL voters in 2013 All voters Between Simon Busuttil and Joseph Muscat who do you trust most? April May %Change Joseph Muscat 43.7 43.2 -0.5 Simon Busuttil 33.7 27.7 -6 None 11.5 16.5 +5 Don't know 11.1 12.6 +1.5 Trust Barometer according to respondents' vote in 2013 election PN voters PL voters Switchers Joseph Muscat 6.1 92.4 66.6 Simon Busuttil 81.6 0.8 11.1 None 8.2 5 11.1 Don't know 4.1 1.8 11.1