Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/311673
maltatoday, WEDNESDAY, 14 MAY 2014 7 News be playing a very old game in Mal- tese politics: that of securing pa- tronage through an abstention. Since political parties are given the names of all those who abstain, these voters will be in a better posi- tion to be taken care of before the 2018 general election. Another problem for Labour is how to win back traditional vot- ers while retaining its appeal among switchers. The compari- son between Engerer and soldiers of steel may have mobilised some traditional voters, but it may have also irked middle of the road voters. Muscat has certainly been careful to address some of these voters' concerns. For example, faced with a motion by the Opposition, the Ta' Hagrat permit was withdrawn months after being approved on ap- peal by a planning board appointed by the present administration. Muscat's migration boomerang On migration, Muscat has also been wary of using the same rheto- ric he used last year when he invited Europe to wake up and smell the coffee, something which made him more popular in society at large but evoked strong revulsion among a strategic segment of educated lib- eral voters. Yet by being so hawkish last year, Muscat may well have helped in creating a monster which has now spun out of his control. Surveys have consistently shown that mi- gration now tops the concerns of Labour voters. Muscat's dramatic change in tone on migration – which includes a vague commitment to ban child migration – also reflects the reality of contesting under the European Socialist's banner whose leader Martin Schultz made the case for legal migration in front of a crowd of Labour supporters used to con- sider migrants as a burden. While this was one of the most positive aspects of Labour campaign, the sudden change of heart may be disorienting to those who last year wanted to take to the streets to sup- port Muscat's pushback threat. Moreover, while it is highly un- likely that Schultz will be the EU's next Commission president, it is even unlikelier that all member states will accept Schultz's propos- al of a common migration policy where each of the 28 member states are obliged to share responsibility. In this sense, the emphasis given to Schultz's speech on the Labour may lead to even greater disappoint- ment in the future among Labour voters who are being groomed to demand 'more Europe' on migra- tion and 'less Europe' on practically everything else, even on topics dear to the European Socialists, like the proposed tax on financial transac- tions to finance the EU's budget. Moreover, by still emphasising the issue despite the decrease in arriv- als, Labour continues to fuel the perception that migration is a do- or-die issue for the country. The stakes for the PN The campaign has also brought the worse and the best of Busuttil. He still appears unwilling to embark on any bold move like supporting the spring hunting referendum and he lost a once in a lifetime chance to send an unequivocally positive message to the gay community and liberal voters. Busuttil has certainly not taken any risks, which could further erode the party's support among core traditional voters. Busuttil's hopes seem to hinge on Muscat dropping the 'taghna lkoll' mask. So far, the mask has fallen on a number of occasions without gen- erating the wave of moral outrage expected by the PN. Partly to blame for this is the record of the past PN government, which has desensitised the nation to bad governance. Still, the campaign has also stood testimony to the perseverance of a leader who a year ago assumed leadership of a sinking ship but who over the past months has been able to mount a solid – albeit negative – Opposition. In some ways, these elections have truly brought Busut- til out of his shell. While clearly not a natural in political theatre like Muscat, Busuttil has improved his delivery, and manages to contrast Muscat's highly personalised and flamboyant style of leadership with a more collegial Opposition. The PN's decision not to put up any billboards may be dictated by the party's poor finances, but it further serves the purpose of high- lighting Labour's dominant posi- tion and the PN's position as an underdog. In fact, the advantage for Busuttil in this campaign is that he starts the election as a severely injured under- dog facing an adversary who retains an aura of invincibility. It is in this context that Busuttil is emphasis- ing his party's humility in contrast to Labour's perceived arrogance. This means that any reduction in Labour's lead will consolidate Busuttil's hold on his party. This certainly represents a very short- sighted approach. But for the PN, these elections are a matter of sur- vival. In fact, Busuttil has put only one very realisable target for his party: that of electing three seats, which is the most likely outcome, according to experts. But Busuttil also knows that if Muscat manages to confirm the 2013 majority, his party will be served with a lethal blow. Therefore, he is doing every- thing possible to mobilise Nation- alist voters while at the same time hoping for a low turnout of Labour voters. If this happens, he would have accomplished the undeclared goal of narrowing Labour's lead and thus reinvigorating the party in the wake of last year's drubbing. This will remove the perception that the PN is a lost cause, a factor weighing heavily on the party's finances. These elections are also a mat- ter for survival for Alternattiva Demokratika, whose chances to elect a seat in the European Parlia- ment remains small but which has seen an increase in support over the past weeks. Much will depend on whether those disillusioned by the current electoral set up will remain at home or turn out to vote for the greens. More difficult to foresee is support for the far right, which in the past has shown an ability to do better than predicted in surveys. All in all, although surveys seem to indicate two near-certainties – the election of three PN MEPs, and a Labour majority – the scale of Labour's victory will depend on the whims of undecided voters-most of whom voted PL in the 2013 elec- tion, who are likely to make up their minds only in the last days of the campaign. And while both major parties may reach their declared goals, it is the size of the gap between the parties which will weigh heavily on the ac- tions of government and Opposi- tion in the next months and years. Two candidates to start with a 4,000 vote advantage, expert claims JAMES J. PISCOPO TOPPING the list of the main politi- cal parties on the ballot paper means starting the election with around a 4,000-vote bonus, an expert of Mal- ta's electoral system claims. Hermann Schiavone, who analysed the Single Transferrable Vote sys- tem for his doctorate degree, told MaltaToday that according to his estimates, Labour and Nationalist candidates who are on top of the lists always enjoy an average of 250 votes per district. Architect Lino Bianco and en- trepreneur Ray Bugeja are the first names found on the ballot paper for the Labour and Nationalist parties respectively. This estimate is triggered by the so- called 'donkey voting', the practice of numbering the candidates as they appear on the ballot paper instead of numbering them according to one's preference. "This element will persist in the upcoming European elections mainly because they are considered as secondary elections. Substantial numbers want to vote for their party but they do not have any preferred candidate," Schiavone said. Donkey voting will also be crucial in the inheriting of votes. In 2009, Marlene Mizzi lost Labour's fourth seat to John Attard Montalto – who inherited the bulk of Claudette Abela Baldacchino's votes – despite polling 5,000 votes more than him. "2009 was not an exception. The al- phabet inf luences every election and I do not exclude it from having an important say in the upcoming elec- tions as well," Schiavone underlines. He says that from studies he made, usually the electorate meticulously marks the first three preferences, but then continues marking the bal- lot paper randomly, usually in a top- down approach. "In this context, the parties' deci- sion to present a long list of candi- dates for just six seats was unthink- able. A long ballot paper indirectly encourages this style of voting." The Nationalist Party has 11 can- didates, while Labour originally pre- sented 13 candidates before Cyrus Engerer withdrew his candidature last week. According to his studies, Schi- avone concludes that donkey voting is present in every electoral district and irrespective of political prefer- ences. "It is not prevalent in a particular political camp or another, but my es- timates show the 10th district (made up of Sliema, Pembroke, St Julians and Swieqi) has a lower tendency to resort to donkey voting. This may be due to socio-cultural factors, since it is also the same district with the lowest illiteracy rate," Schiavone ex- plains. While concurring that such system discriminates against certain candi- dates, he states that alternatives ex- ist but they also come with several shortcomings. "For instance, it's always a possibil- ity to adopt a rotation system, where ballot papers are printed with candi- dates in no particular order. Ideally every polling booth would have a dif- ferent set up, and that would ensure a fairer scenario to all candidates in regards to donkey voting. But un- doubtedly, that would give rise to a much lengthier counting process," Schiavone admits. jpiscopo@mediatoday.com.mt Lino Bianco (PL) Ray Bugeja (PN) PHOTOGRAPHY BY RAY ATTARD Despite his apparent shortcomings as a leader, the MEP elections may have served to bring Opposition leader Simon Busuttil out of his shell