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maltatoday, WEDNESDAY, 21 MAY 2014 9 News EU elections: Abstention set to determine result OVER the past few weeks, MaltaTo- day's polls have put the PL's lead at between 4 and 8 points. This seems to indicate that next Saturday's poll will see a decrease in Labour's 12- point lead in the 2013 general elec- tion. Polls also seem to indicate that both major parties are set to win three seats each. If such a result is confirmed by the actual polls, both major parties are set to declare 'victory' next Sunday, with the PN achieving its mission of electing three seats and securing its undeclared goal of reducing La- bour's lead, and the PL going down in the footnotes of history as the first party to win these elections while in government. But it is the gap between the ma- jor parties which will solicit most interpretation on Sunday night. For by retaining most of its 2013 lead, the PL would have struck another demoralising blow to the PN. But it would be a completely different sto- ry for the PN if it manages to cut the lead by more than half, in the space of 13 months. But the major news item on Sunday may well be the level of abstention – something which is hard to predict in polls – because of the propensity of non-voters to reply 'Don't Know' or to give no answer to questions on voting intentions. Which party will lose most votes? Surveys show that the size of the gap between the two parties de- pends on the level of abstention in both camps. Surveys suggest that an 85% turn- out among PN voters in 2013 against a PL turnout of 80% in same election will yield a gap of 4 to 5 points in fa- vour of Labour. On the other hand, an 80% turnout in both parties will yield a 7 to 8 point gap in Labour's favour. Another factor is the behaviour of undecided respondents on Satur- day. It is probable that this segment also includes respondents who will not be voting. One major factor which makes the gap between the two parties hard to predict is the large number of respondents who trust Muscat more than Busuttil but remain un- sure who to vote for next Saturday. This category represented 6% of respondents in the latest MaltaTo- day survey. This means that if this category turns up to vote on Sat- urday, Labour's margin of victory would be closer to the 2013 election result. But if a large section of these voters abstain, Labour may win with a relatively small margin. It is in this context that both major parties seem keen on encouraging abstention on the other side, while seeking to mobilise core voters. That explains Simon Busuttil's call on voters to show Muscat the yel- low card and Muscat's pleas to the party's "soldiers of steel". But it is not just Labour which faces disgruntlement or a lack of in- terest among its voters in these elec- tions. The latest MT survey showed that around 20% of both PN and PL voters in 2013 are either undecided or won't vote. But while former PL voters are more likely to trust Mus- cat, most undecided PN voters trust neither of the two leaders. Moreover, a previous survey showed the PN closing the gap to 4 or 5 points when it managed to mobilise 85% of its 2013 voters. On the other hand, the gap increased to 7 points when the percentage of 2013 PN voters who will vote for the PN again fell to 80%. Therefore the scale of Labour's victory will not only depend on how many former Labour voters turn up to vote but also on how many former PN voters will stay at home. Although a low turnout on Satur- day may well indicate problems for Labour, much depends on the turn- out of PN voters. Moreover, while surveys indicate a small shift from the PL to the PN, the shift is more significant among switchers. This shows that in its at- tempts to mobilise its core vote, the PL may well have alienated switch- ers who voted PN in 2008 and PL in 2013. The latest survey also shows a small shift among this category to- wards Alternattiva Demokratika. But overall surveys indicate that support for all third parties com- bined is under 4%. Support for AD seems to be close to 3% while support for the far right oscillates between 1% and 2%. But support for third parties may be un- der- or over-represented in surveys due to the 4-point margin of error. Surveys also tend to underestimate support for the far right, as people may not be keen on any public as- sociation with notorious candidates like Imperium Europa's Norman Lowell. This is because in surveys the world over, respondents are not likely to admit to what others may perceive as anti-social bahaviour. Who will grab the PN's third seat? Surveys provide no clue on who will win the PN's third seat. As things stand, a probable third PN candidate will be the last one to be elected, probably without securing a full quota. When it comes to the choice of candidates, the survey indicates that within the PL camp Alfred Sant, Marlene Mizzi and Miriam Dalli are the most likely to get elect- ed, although a large vote for Sant would mean that other candidates may come back into the game after Sant's surplus is distributed. A dis- proportionate share of Sant's vote to any candidate will alter the dynam- ics of the elections. MaltaToday's survey gives incum- bent Marlene Mizzi a small advan- tage over newcomer Miriam Dalli for the runner-up position. But even this battle seems to be too close to call. The donkey vote which penalised Mizzi in the 2004 MEP elections may also play a role this time round, as a segment of candidates tends to choose a particular candidate and then proceed by voting all the party's candidates in the same al- phabetical order as they are listed on the ballot sheet. As regards the PN, the only cer- tainty is that Roberta Metsola and incumbent David Casa start as fa- vourites for the PN's – two sure seats, while a possible third seat will be determined by the complex sys- tem of vote transfers. In the PN's case vote transfers from eliminated candidates may play a more decisive role than in Labour where Sant is set to win a greater portion of votes than either Metsola or Casa. Moreover, although both major parties are likely to win three seats each, their designs could be thwart- ed by voters who vote for one or two candidates only. A segment of voters may be im- pressed by the qualities of strong personalities like Sant or Metsola but may use their vote to express their disillusionment at the quality of other candidates. The number of these voters may be an important factor in the final seat allocation. Others may also give their first preference to either of the two big parties and continued on AD or another party. Some may even be tempted to choose candi- dates among all the parties on the list. Voters may feel more free to experiment with their vote in an election where the government of the country is not at stake. Appeals for a block vote may well backfire on these voters. This will probably result in a situ- ation where one – or even two – candidates will be elected without reaching the required quota. The quota itself may also be reduced thanks to a low turn out. In such an eventuality, even third party candi- dates with a significant number of first preferences may get back in the game. But their survival will depend on the number of transfers they re- ceive from candidates belonging to the big parties. Different turnouts, different results Poll Date Turnout of PN and PL voters in 2013* Labour's lead April 13 85.1% (PN) 75% (PL) 3.6 May 4 80.2 (PN) 78.8% (PL) 8.4 May 11 84.1 (PN) 80.8 (PL) 5.1 May 17 80.8 (PN) 78.6 (PL) 7.2 * percentage of PN and PL voters in 2013 who would vote for respective party on 24 May With few voters shifting from one party to the other, it is the level of abstention in both camps which is set to determine the size of the gap between PN and PL. How will abstention weigh on next Saturday's poll, JAMES DEBONO asks?