Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/321747
maltatoday, SUNDAY, 1 JUNE 2014 10 A double dip recession generally occurs when austerity measures in- tended to cure a sick economy result in an even greater depression, which intesifies the downward spiral. Surely over the past few months the PN has managed to show signs of life by presenting itself as a compact and determined Opposition in parlia- ment, which was able to create diffi- culties for government on a number of occasions. On its own, this raised expectations of a slow but steady recovery. But last week's result has dashed these hopes away, giving the impression that the party's attempts to re-invigorate itself during the past year have all been in vain. Could the result itself trigger a dou- ble dip effect, ushering more internal bleeding in the years to come? One of the greatest fears of Na- tionalist strategists is that the gap between the two main parties con- firmed in last week's election fuels the perception among Nationalists that Labour is here to stay for the long haul, and has thus supplanted the PN as the country's natural party of government. For the best part of the past three decades, the PN came to be regard- ed not just as the dispensers of pa- tronage, but it also gave its leaders the aura of statesmen... something which, in the mind of PN voters, al- ways gives their leaders the benefit of the doubt in the face criticism. The PN actively cultivated this perception while in power, not just by morphing party and government into a powerful electoral machine, but also by presenting its leaders as statesmen rather than simply politi- cians. This was a problem faced by Sant's Opposition, which was constantly belittled as a nuisance factor. This perception was only shaken by the defections from the Gonzi camp, which constantly eroded the PM's authority. Still, among rank-and-file Nation- alists, while Gonzi was endowed with the attributes of a statesman, Joseph Muscat was still regarded as an up- start with no political depth. What happened after March 2013 dispelled some of the worst fears among Nationalist voters, some of whom feared a return to the divisive policies of Dom Mintoff's party. Moreover, the PN's apocalyptic pre-election warnings have so far been contradicted by a buoyant economy and the PL's ability to hon- our its pledges to cut income tax and to reduce energy bills. At the same time, many of these voters were already desensitised by the PN's own record in government, to the PN Opposition's constant com- plaints of low standards of govern- ance and lack of meritocracy. They did not cringe at Muscat's betrayal of 'Malta Taghna Lkoll' simply because they were used to the same standards when the PN was in government. This is why nobody baulked at the numerous occasions when Muscat's meritocracy mask fell. In bed with the enemy? Moreover, in their everyday life, many Nationalists are already getting used to the idea of a Labour govern- ment as an interlocutor rather than an adversary. Not only are more Na- tionalists discovering that Labour- ites are not the monsters depicted in Nationalist lore, but some may even find Labour more accommodating and attentive to their needs, espe- cially in those sectors, like MEPA, where the late Gonzi administration had tightened the screws. Moreover, while the pro-business, pro-hunting and pro-development policies of the government may turn off that category disgruntled PN voters who may flirt with the idea of voting for AD, the PL's ideologi- cal transformation may be viewed positively by rank-and-file PN voters who genuinely believe in privatisa- tion and that government should in- terfere less in the economy. Many of these voters probably do not give a toss about hunters and overdevelop- ment. Moreover, the PL has also kept its appeal among liberal PN voters by introducing civil unions and starting a discussion about decriminalisation of drug use – a strategy that could make these voters turn a blind eye on other abuses. Surveys carried out in the past few months show that a sizeable catego- ry of PN voters in the 2013 general election have already warmed to the Labour government. A MaltaTo- day survey held at the end of last year ahead of the start of the cam- paign showed that 6% of PN voters expressed a positive judgement on Muscat's government. Moreover only half of Nationalist voters ex- pressed a completely negative judge- ment, with the rest expressing a so- so judgement. Moreover, even before elections, nearly 5% of PN voters claimed that they had more trust in Muscat than in Busuttil. Most of these respondents did not commit themselves on who they were going to vote. This could indicate that after losing around a tenth of its voters before the 2013 election, the PN now risks losing another segment of its already restricted voting base without recov- ering any substantial amount of vot- ers from the other side. This could force the PN into a double dip reces- sion. It's already happening… in Gozo The election results indicate that the double dip effect is already tak- ing place in Gozo, a district in which voters tend to gravitate towards the party in government. In fact, even in 1987 it was the Gozo district which defied the trend against the en- trenched Labour government. Scarcity of resources also makes Gozitans more dependent on tradi- tionally strong patronage networks. Gozo is the only district which saw a substantial increase in turnout over corresponding elections in 2009. But while the PL increased its voters by 1,054, the PN only increased its votes by 322. Ultimately, the PL increased its lead by 1.4% to win a relative ma- jority of 49.5%, while the PN lost 2 points dipping to 45.5%. Even compared to the general elec- tion, the PL still managed to improve its percentage by 0.4%, despite the growth of small parties. In fact, apart from the first district where Labour increased its vote share by a mini- mal 0.1%, Gozo was the only district where Labour actually increased its voting share. Both parties are bound to have lost votes due to the low turnout since the past general elec- tion. But while Labour got 1,809 less votes than last year, the PN lost 2,900 votes. In other districts, it is harder to decipher whether Labour has gained any new votes from the PN or vice versa. For it could well be possible that any gains made by both parties from each other were counterbal- anced by abstentions or votes to smaller parties, which together ac- count for nearly 7% of the vote. While in the south the indications are that the PN lost a bit more to abstention than Labour, a stalemate situation reigns in the rest of Malta. Moreover, compared to 2009, the Nationalist-leaning tenth district saw Labour losing more votes than the PN despite the low turnout in this district. Into the wilderness? While it is not clear whether the PN is already losing more votes to Labour, the result itself may be the final straw for some voters to defect and surrender to Joseph Muscat's se- ductive appeal. One factor is that people gener- ally prefer riding on the winning cart than soldiering on, especially when the army's generals seem to be head- ing deeper in the wilderness. Another risk is that due to his role as Gonzi's sidekick in the 2013 general election, Simon Busuttil has already acquired a reputation of a loser, something that happened to Sant after losing the 1998 election, the EU referen- dum and the subsequent election. One radical choice for the party would be that of replacing Bu- suttil by a new leader. But this may well further lacerate and weaken the party. Moreover, there is no obvious replace- ment for Busuttil and both depu- ty leaders carry their signature on the defeat. An unwritten pact still seems to unite the PN's troika. Moreover, over the past months Busuttil has adopted an inclusive style of leader- ship, which makes it even more dif- ficult to solely blame him for the bad result. Busuttil had also given himself one realisable target: that of electing three seats of six and by a stroke of luck, he has managed to fulfil it. Neither is there any way to counter the government's power of incum- bency and the inevitable losses to a party which holds the reins of gov- ernment and patronage. As the Panini sticker album epi- sode also demonstrated, singling out anyone appointed by Muscat simply serves to alienate their relatives and friends. The only way for the PN to remain a viable force is that of exploiting any contradictions in Labour's new hege- monic block by becoming attractive to traditional Labour voters. In some ways, the PN has a lot to learn about how Muscat's movement became at- tractive to a number of centre-right voters. One problem is that Busuttil's bag- gage makes it difficult for him to make inroads in the rival camp. Still, Busuttil has shown moments of political wisdom, like support- ing the nomination of Marie Louise Coleiro Preca as President. This was the first time that the party in Op- position supported a nomination made by the governments from its own rank. On its own, this episode disproves Labour's mantra that the Opposition is always negative. But the fact remains that through- out the campaign, the PN failed to News Gozo is the only district which saw a substantial increase in turnout over corresponding elections in 2009 It is also probable that in these southern districts it was AD and Imperium Europa's Norman Lowell who may have gained at the expense of both parties. For example, in the fifth district – which includes Marsaxlokk and B'Bugia – AD increased its vote tally by 241 votes since 2009 The PN's double-dip recession By James Debono By James Debono THE CONFIRMATION OF LABOUR'S 30,000-PLUS VOTE LEAD FUELS THE PERCEPTION THAT LABOUR HAS BECOME THE NATURAL PARTY OF GOVERNMENT, THUS INCREASING ITS APPEAL TO NATIONALISTS WHO USED TO SUPPORT THE PN FOR THE SAME REASON. IS THE PN RISKING ANOTHER HAEMORRHAGE OF VOTES, JAMES DEBONO ASKS?