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maltatoday, WEDNESDAY, 31 DECEMBER 2014 15 Surveys predict tight race for 2008 election The final MaltaToday survey pub- lished on 6 March, 2008 showed the PN at 36% – barely 2% ahead of the MLP. The PN won the election by a wafer thin 1,500 vote majority. Surveys conducted by MaltaToday consistently showed that Lawrence Gonzi was more popular than Alfred Sant. This was the case in the two years before the election. This was a natural advantage for the PN, which had effectively changed a parliamentary election into a sort of presidential contest. This shows that opinion polls were in fact shaping the nature of the cam- paign and not just predicting the final result. It also shows that the PN's efforts picked up in the first three weeks of the campaign when Lawrence Gonzi took the initiative by promising tax cuts and a MEPA reform. The first electoral survey conducted in the first week of February showed the MLP having a 1.7% advantage over the PN. By end of February the PN was lead- ing with five points but this advantage had nearly evaporated in the last week of the campaign following revelations by Labour on Jeffrey Pullicino Orlan- do's involvement in the development of a disco in Mistra. 12-point majority predicted in 2013 election The last MaltaToday survey before the general election last year showed an 11.7-point gap between the PL and the PN. In the actual test Labour won the election with a similar margin. The PL had enjoyed a gap of more than 10 points in all eight MaltaToday surveys conducted during the elector- al campaign, as well as in most surveys conducted in the previous year. The trust barometer also showed that Joseph Muscat enjoyed a very high trust rating of 44% against Law- rence Gonzi's 31%. All public opinion polls conducted by MaltaToday as far back as Sep- tember 2008, only six months after Gonzi's victory in the 2008 general election, foretold the PN's disastrous result in the 2013 election. Support for AD ranged between 1.5% and 2.5%, which roughly tallies with the 1.8% garnered in the general election. Divorce referendum outcome foreseen MaltaToday surveys were the first to indicate a majority for the introduc- tion of divorce, thus spurring the de- bate on this issue. The first survey registering a 53% majority for divorce was published in April 2010 before Jeffrey Pullicino Or- lando presented a parliamentary mo- tion proposing a divorce law. The ma- jority grew to 59% in July but fell again to 53% of decided respondents in the final surveys before the referendum. MaltaToday surveys had also in- dicated an anti divorce majority in Gozo. MEP election results MaltaToday polls correctly pre- dicted most of the MEPs elected in the 2009 and 2014 MEP elec- tions. The 2009 survey had put Louis Grech, Edward Scicluna and Joseph Cuschieri as Labour's three front-runners and Simon Busuttil and David Casa as the PN's clear favourites. John Attard Montalto, who had got fewer first count votes than Cuschieri but inherited more votes, made it among the first five MEPs to be elected while Cusch- ieri took his seat two years later. In 2011 MaltaToday surveys correctly predicted that Alfred Sant, Miriam Dalli and Marlene Mizzi were La- bour's front runners while Roberta Metsola and David Casa led in the PN's fold. The survey also indicat- ed a tight race for the PN's third place, which was eventually won by Therese Comodini Cachia. Both MT surveys in 2009 and 2014 showed Labour winning with an absolute majority but Labour ended up with an even greater majority than predicted in both surveys. Surveys predict tight race for 2008 election The final MaltaToday survey pub- lished on 6 March, 2008 showed the PN at 36% – barely 2% ahead of the MLP. The PN won the election by a wafer thin 1,500 vote majority. Surveys conducted by MaltaToday consistently showed that Lawrence Gonzi was more popular than Alfred Sant. This was the case in the two years before the election. This was a natural advantage for the PN, which had effectively changed a parliamentary election into a sort of presidential contest. This shows that opinion polls were in fact shaping the nature of the cam- paign and not just predicting the final result. It also shows that the PN's efforts picked up in the first three weeks of the campaign when Lawrence Gonzi took the initiative by promising tax cuts and a MEPA reform. The first electoral survey conducted in the first week of February showed the MLP having a 1.7% advantage over €1.00 MaltaToday App now WIPE OUT VINDICATED 1.8% MaltaToday surveys correctly predicted the results of the 2008 and 2013 general elections, the divorce referendum and the candidates elected in the 2009 and 2014 MEP elections The MaltaToday surveys vindicated €1.00 WWW.MALTATODAY.COM.MT MONDAYt.":t*446&t16#-*4)&%&7&3:8&%/&4%":"/%46/%": 122,547 SINNERS VOTE YES SPECIAL EDITION 2011 DIVORCE REFERENDUM mt survey