Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/441179
maltatoday, SUNDAY, 4 JANUARY 2015 12 Malta in 2015 IN three years' time the Nationalist Party will go into the general election knowing that regain- ing power is well beyond its reach, unless Joseph Muscat's government presses the self-destruct button. However, 2015 could be a pivotal year for PN leader Simon Busuttil in his quest to regain the people's trust and convince the electorate that the opposition is a viable alternative to Muscat's government. This will not lead to a PN victory in 2018 but if Busuttil is successful in achieving these targets, the opposition will gradually knock Muscat off his perch and be in a better position to give the Prime Minister a good run for his money five years later. However, regaining the people's trust – starting with the PN's core supporters – and defining the party's ethos requires patience and audacity. Busuttil emerged from the year which has just ended as a stronger leader than he was when the PN got another trouncing in the European elections the previous May. Ironically the defeat strengthened Busuttil's position in the party and in recent months, especially his reaction to the shooting incident which led to then home affairs minister Manuel Mallia's resignation, the PN leader grew in stature and in confidence. But benefitting from the government's blun- ders is one thing and regaining the lost trust is another. The brownie points scored in the wake of Malliagate will go up in smoke unless Busuttil offers strong leadership and takes ownership of issues which the electorate can relate to. However, overcoming Muscat's ostensible invincibility is no easy task and regaining the people's trust is intrinsically linked to the gov- ernment's performance. With thousands of vot- ers switching to Labour for the very first time in March 2013, voters will not be easily swayed into being convinced that they made the wrong choice. Yet as shown by the downfall of the National- ist Party in 2013, Labour's seemingly hegemonic force is not eternal, and Muscat's "politics with- out adversaries" will one day implode. The ques- tion is whether the PN and Busuttil will be ready to govern and how soon the electorate will be willing to trust the opposition again. Busuttil's recent showings at the PN's con- vention in October and his Budget speech have shown that he is growing in the role and his per- formances exuded a newly found confidence. But that alone will not win Busuttil any votes. There is an eerie feeling among the PN's core support that Busuttil's backroom staff is inad- equately equipped to counter Muscat's tactical moves, which over the last five years have unre- mittingly caught the PN off-guard and exposed the opposition strategists' ineptitude. The PN's mock sticker album of government appointments and the opposition's decision to abstain in the civil unions bill epitomised the party's weak political shrewdness and Busuttil's lack of leadership respectively. The former strategy showed why the PN has not managed to wash away the perception that some of the party's longstanding strategists who still run the show believe that the PN has a God given right to govern the country and attribute the mammoth 2013 defeat to Muscat's trickery rather than the PN's shortcomings. However, the 2013 election showed that not only the PN is no longer superior to Labour when it comes to winning elections and governing the country but it has lost the moral high ground it once had a claim to. Tactics will only convince voters to turn their back on Labour and tilt the balance in favour of the PN if Labour makes a mess in other sectors, especially the economy. But the probability of that happening any time soon is nigh impossi- ble and if the PN persists with such moves it will only reinforce the perception that it is clutching at straws. On the other hand, the decision to abstain in the civil unions bill exposed Busuttil's inexperi- ence and ill judgement. Not only did he allow the party to be perceived as being in the clutches of the conservative faction but he also missed an op- portunity to shape the party's ethos. Busuttil might well be the first leader since Gorg Borg Olivier who is more comfortable be- ing termed as a liberal rather than as a conserva- tive. But so far he has failed to articulate his vision and convince the conservative majority within the party that the PN must transform itself into a more socially liberal party. While Muscat has made an art out of articu- lating contradictory social-democratic, socialist, neo-liberal, liberal and nationalistic discourses, the PN must come up with an alternative built on a coherent narrative which is representative of the diverse ideological currents within the party. Despite the damage incurred over the last dec- ade, the PN and Busuttil must provide an au- thentic narrative that appeals to the masses while maintaining a dose of intellectual honesty. The PN's claim to be "honest" or at least more honest than the Labour government remains just a claim and in order to convince that the PN is a better alternative than Labour, the opposi- tion must eat humble pie and ring the necessary changes as Muscat did upon being elected La- bour leader in 2008. Local election test 2015 will offer Busuttil with a series of opportu- nities which he could either grasp and take lead- ership in or else let yet another ship sail out of harbour. Firstly, the party will be presented with another electoral test in the local elections. Conspicuously, the government's plans to postpone the 2015 local elections were shelved thanks to the opposition's criticism and pressure but now the PN must stop the haemorrhage and ensure that it does not suffer another electoral drubbing. Three years ago Labour won almost 56% of the vote and obtained a majority of councillors in 19 localities out of 35. On the other hand the Na- tionalist Party obtained 41.8% and Alternattiva Demokratika 1.9%. In the 2012 round of elections, which unlike this year included PN stronghold Sliema, Labour obtained 15,341 votes more than the PN and won a majority in two important localities for the very first time, namely St Paul's Bay and Qala. Normally, parties in government fare badly in mid-term elections but the majority of the 34 localities are Labour leaning and the PN would do well to shorten the gap and score important victories in St Paul's Bay, Mosta and Qala. This would dent Muscat's mantra of invinci- bility and help the opposition gain some mo- mentum going into the 2018 general election, however, if the PN suffers another drubbing and doesn't make any inroads in what was previously perceived as the PN's natural voting base, further uncertainty will creep in the party's grassroots and Busuttil's position will be in the balance. Referendum quandary In all probability, the local elections will be held together with the referendum on spring hunting which could result in the removal of the spring hunting season. So far, Busuttil has been very cautious on the matter and has refused to com- mit himself. Understandably, Busuttil is reluctant to turn the referendum into a political showdown be- tween the two major parties, because if the gov- ernment and Muscat are forced into taking a po- sition and mobilise Labour supporters, it would be hard to envisage a victory for the anti-spring hunting campaign. However, this could be a perfect opportunity for Busuttil to shape the party's ethos and place the party squarely on the same side of socially liberal voters. If he instead chooses to sit on the fence he will only enforce the notion that the PN is a soulless party which is petrified and immobi- lised by the fear to ring the changes. Constitutional reform One issue the PN can take ownership of is Constitutional reform, which both major par- ties promised in their electoral programmes. The PN could start by making a series of proposals in Parliament to change the process through which public appointments are made. Another issue the PN can make its own is the employment of MPs, who instead of being employed on government boards should be given institutional roles in par- liamentary committees grilling government min- isters, CEOs, chairpersons and regulators over their annual work. Busuttil could also advocate the introduction of digital rights, the revision of Malta's neutrality clause and a thorough reform in the police force 2015: The year of reckoning PN leader Simon Busuttil still lags behind Prime Minister Joseph Muscat in public opinion but will 2015 be the year in which the opposition will transform itself into a credible alternative to Muscat's government? By Jurgen Balzan A perfect opportunity for Busuttil to shape the party's ethos will be the hunting referendum: if he sits on the fence he will only enforce the notion that the PN is a soulless party petrified of change The Sheehan affair: an example of the 'anything goes' culture Busuttiyl has attacked