Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/448091
maltatoday, SUNDAY, 18 JANUARY 2015 18 JAMES DEBONO THE first MaltaToday survey held after the sacking of then Home Af- fairs Minister Manuel Mallia in December shows opposition leader Simon Busuttil trailing Prime Min- ister Joseph Muscat by 15 points in the trust barometer, with Busuttil showing a slight decline compared to November. The survey also shows the Prime Minister registering the lowest ap- proval rating (44%) since April 2013, suggesting that the political earthquake which ultimately led to Mallia's sacking, may have damaged Muscat without eroding his trust lead over Busuttil. The survey was conducted among 500 respondents between Wednes- day 7 and Tuesday, 13 January. In an indication of disgruntlement with the entire political system, one fifth of voters say that they trust nei- ther of the two political leaders. Compared to November Muscat has slightly widened his advantage from 14 points in November to 15 points now, even if his approval rat- ing has since slipped by a point. Significantly, the survey shows that while 12% of PN voters in 2013 trusted Muscat more than Busuttil, only 5% of PL voters (mostly former PN voters) trust Busuttil more than Muscat. The survey shows the PL leading the PN by nine points, and while Busuttil has gained some ground among switchers (people who voted PN in 2008 and PL in 2013), with 18% of them now preferring him to Muscat, the latter is still eating into the PN's 2013-vote base, a trend confirmed by respondents' present voting intentions. For the survey shows that while 4% of those voting for the PL in 2013 will now vote for the PN, 6% of PN voters would vote PL, suggesting that the PN is still losing more votes to Labour than it is gaining. 44% approve Muscat's performance Muscat's approval rating has con- tinued to slip over the past weeks, decreasing by a point since Novem- ber. Muscat had seen the percentage of respondents who judge his per- formance positively slip from 59% a month to 51% in October 2013. Since then his approval rating has slipped further to 45%. The latest survey shows the highest percentage ever of respondents who judge his performance as 'so-so' (35%). The survey shows that 49% of re- spondents either judge Muscat's performance negatively, or as 'so- so'. But his approval rating remains substantially higher than that of Lawrence Gonzi in the 2008 to 2013 period. The highest ever approval rating for Gonzi stood at 38% in 2009. In subsequent surveys Gonzi's approval rate hovered between 20% and 25%. But despite seeing a steady decline in his approval rating, Muscat's per- formance is still judged positively by 15% of those who voted for the PN in 2013. This suggests that the PN's elec- torate is split between a substantial minority (15%) who express a posi- tive judgement of the new govern- ment and a solid core (34%) that express a negative judgement. The majority of PN voters (47%) express a so-so judgement, suggesting that the PN's electorate is not a homoge- neous entity. It may also suggest that PN vot- ers may appreciate Muscat's repo- sitioning of his party to the centre- right on certain issues. Moreover the positive judgement of some PN voters may be the result of the posi- tive economic results of the gov- ernment, coupled with the power of incumbency, through which the new government holds the reins of patronage. The survey shows some signs of disgruntlement among Labour vot- ers. 4% of PL voters in 2013 judge Mus- cat's performance negatively and a significant 16% of PL voters judge his performance as so-so. Among switchers a tenth judge the gov- ernment's performance negatively, while 36% give a so-so verdict. This suggests that while Muscat has alienated a large segment of switchers he still manages to offset these losses by charming voters who opted for Gonzi in 2013. Busuttil trailing by 15 points The survey clearly shows that the small gains Simon Busuttil is mak- ing among switchers and some La- bour voters, are being offset by more substantial losses among 2013 PN voters. In fact the survey does bring Bu- suttil some good news from the switcher front. The survey suggests that one fifth of 2008 PN voters who defected to Labour in 2013 now prefer Busut- til to Muscat. Still despite this gain, 58% of this strategic category still prefer Muscat to Busuttil. Overall the survey shows that one in 20 La- bour voters in 2013 now prefer Bu- suttil to Muscat. This suggests that Busuttil can ap- peal to a segment of PL voters alien- ated by Muscat. But Muscat offsets these losses by making gains among 2013 PN vot- ers, a tenth of whom prefer him to the Nationalist Party leader. This is further confirmation that Busuttil has not stopped the haem- orrhage of PN voters, which has been ongoing since 2008. Interestingly the percentage of PN voters in 2013 who prefer Muscat to Busuttil is the same as the percent- age of PN voters in 2008 who pre- ferred Muscat to Gonzi in surveys held before the 2013 general elec- tion. Surprisingly the survey shows Bu- suttil registering a small two-point drop, compared to a one-point drop News Muscat 15 points ahead of Busuttil 18 News mt survey January 2015 survey 11.9% 74.1% 2.1% 11.9% 84.3% 5.1% 2.8% 7.8% 57.6% 18.2% 9.1% 15.1% 43.8% 28.5% 19.5% 15.3% 8.2% 43.9% 14.7% 78.1% 54.5% Percentage change from November 2014 Both Muscat and Busuttil lose, and more people say they trust neither leader