Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/487054
maltatoday, Sunday, 29 March 2015 18 JAMES DEBONO The latest MaltaToday survey shows both political leaders losing two points in their trust rating when compared to January and Prime Minister Joseph Muscat retaining his strong 15-point lead over oppo- sition leader Simon Busuttil. Two weeks before April's local elections, the survey shows that Muscat remains more popular than his own party, which enjoys an eight-point lead over the National- ist Party in voting intentions on a national level. The survey shows the PN nar- rowing the gap between the two parties by a percentage point as the PN gained four points while the PL gained three points over their re- spective results for January. That was the result comparing February with January. But where it comes to comparing the 2013 elec- tion result, the survey shows the PN losing 6% of its 2013 voters to the PL while the PL is losing 5% of its 2013 voters to the PN. This indi- cates that while the PN is showing signs of vitality attracting a small segment of PL voters, these gains are offset by losses among respond- ents who had voted PN in the last general election. Moreover the trust barometer indicates that the segment of 2013 PN voters who prefer Muscat to Busuttil is greater than the segment of PL voters who prefer Busuttil to Muscat. While Busuttil is more trusted than Muscat by 4% of PL voters in 2013, Muscat is more trusted than Busuttil by 8% of PN voters in 2013. This indicates that Muscat still manages to seduce a segment of PN voters. But while the survey shows Mus- cat as the more trusted leader, it also shows him enjoying the lowest approval rating since the 2013 gen- eral election. The percentage of voters who trust his performance positively has fallen substantively from 58% immediately after the election to 42% now. Muscat's approval rating has fallen consistently since No- vember. This indicates that while Busuttil has made no inroads, himself losing two points in the trust barometer, Muscat is facing the first signs of discontent among a segment of PL voters. Significantly, one in every four Labour voters in 2013 now rate his performance as Prime Minister as "so-so". And 41% of switchers who crossed from PN to PL in the 2013 election also deem his performance as "so-so". 42% approve Muscat's performance Respondents were asked to rate Muscat's performance as Prime Minister. The survey shows Muscat's ap- proval rating slipping over the past months, declining by two points since November and by another point since January. Muscat had seen the percentage of respondents who judge his per- formance positively slip from 59% in April 2013 to 46% in June before the push back of immigrants threat. Muscat's approval rating rose to 51% in October 2013 but declined to 45% a year later and to 42% now. The latest survey shows the high- est percentage ever of respondents who judge his performance as 'so- so' (39%). Despite this dip in approval, which comes in the wake of two damning reports by the auditor general, one on the bail out of the Café Premier and another on the hedging of fuel from SOCAR, only 12% of respond- ents deem Muscat's performance negatively. But significantly for the first time since the general election, the sur- vey shows an absolute majority (52%) of respondents who either judge Muscat's performance nega- tively, or as 'so-so'. But Muscat's approval rating re- mains substantially higher than that of Lawrence Gonzi, his predeces- sor as Prime Minister, in the 2008 to 2013 period. The highest ever approval rating for Gonzi stood at 38% in 2009. In subsequent surveys Gonzi's approval rate hovered be- tween 20% and 25%. Despite seeing a steady decline in his approval rating, Muscat's per- formance is still judged positively by 15% of those who voted for the PN in 2013. This suggests that the PN's elec- torate is split between a substantial minority (15%) who express a posi- tive judgement on the new govern- ment and a solid core (33%) that express a negative judgement. The majority of PN voters (48%) express a so-so judgement, suggesting that the PN's electorate is not a homo- geneous entity. It may also suggest that PN vot- ers may appreciate Muscat's repo- sitioning of his party to the centre- right on certain issues. Moreover the positive judgement of some PN voters may be the result of the positive economic results of the government, coupled with the power of incumbency, through which the new government holds the reins of patronage. The survey shows some signs of disgruntlement among Labour vot- ers. Only 1% of PL voters in 2013 judge Muscat's performance nega- tively. But a significant 25% (up from 16% in January) of PL voters judge his performance as so-so. Among switchers 41% give a so-so verdict. This suggests that while Muscat has alienated a segment of switch- ers and Labour voters he still man- ages to offset these losses by charm- ing voters who opted for Gonzi in 2013. Busuttil trailing by 15 points Respondents were asked which of the two political leaders they trust most. In this survey Busuttil registers his lowest trust rating since June 2013 and Muscat his lowest trust rating since July 2013. The survey clearly shows that the small gains Simon Busuttil is mak- ing among switchers and some Labour voters, are being offset by more substantial losses among 2013 PN voters. In fact the survey does bring Bu- suttil some good news from the La- bour front. While Busuttil is the preferred choice of 9% of switchers who de- fected to Labour in 2013, interest- ingly Busuttil is also preferred to Muscat by 3% of PL voters in 2008. This suggests that Busuttil can ap- peal to a small segment of PL voters who feel alienated by Muscat. Still, despite this modest gain by Busuttil, 56% of switchers still pre- MaltaToday Survey Political leaders lose equal 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Positive Negative So and So Don't know Joseph Muscat's approval rating according to different categores of 2013 voters Joseph Muscat's approval rating 2013-2015 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Jun 2013 Jul 2014 Oct 2013 Dec 2013 Mar 2014 Nov 2014 Jan 2015 Mar 2015 10 20 30 40 50 Jun 2013 Jul 2014 Oct 2013 Dec 2013 Mar 2014 Nov 2014 Jan 2015 Mar 2015 Between Simon Busuttil and Joseph Muscat, who do you trust the most? 2013-2015