Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/490723
maltatoday, SUNDAY, 5 APRIL 2015 News 11 Seeking a plebiscite? Initially Muscat wanted to avoid this mid-term test by postponing this round of local elections to 2019. But after changing his mind and bowing down to criticism on the proposed postponement (thus appearing hum- ble and receptive to criticism), Mus- cat has campaigned tirelessly to win these local elections, turning them into a referendum on his perform- ance in government rather than an election where citizens simply elect their local representatives. This indicates that Muscat is seek- ing a strong mandate which would enable him to push through his agenda in the next months with the least opposition possible. Unlike Eddie Fenech Adami, who at the peak of his popularity always refused to give a national dimension to local elections, Muscat is doing the exact opposite. It was Gonzi who first departed from Fenech Adami's sober ap- proach to local elections by trying to manipulate the results when he withdrew candidates from Marsa and Zejtun in 2006, thus implicitly recognising the national importance of these elections. The reason why Muscat is hyping local elections into a national contest could be his assessment that Labour voters may be keener on voting to show support for him, than to elect the party's local representatives. Moreover Muscat has banked on his higher trust rating over the op- position leader and on the feel good factor generated by his successful performance in managing the coun- try's economy. He may also still be benefiting from the dividends of sub- stantial social reforms like the intro- duction of civil unions and universal and free child care services while still appealing to the centre-right by posturing to business interests, thus managing to occupy the spectrum traditionally occupied by the PN. But Muscat does face increasing discontent over his government's lack of transparency and his policy of rewarding stalwarts like Cyrus En- gerer by giving them lucrative posts. The latest MaltaToday survey shows Muscat's approval rating as PM slipping to 42%, in a clear sign that the electorate is showing the first signs of restlessness. Muscat's greatest fear is that if this discontent is reflected in the polls it could well have a snowballing effect, fatally wounding his reputation for invincibility three years before gen- eral elections. In fact for some voters the local elections may well provide a chance to cut Muscat down to size, either for voting for a PN candidate they like, voting for the Greens or by stay- ing at home. One advantage for the PN is that disgruntled voters who have yet not warmed up to Simon Busuttil may find it easier to vote for the friendly boy or girl next door who is stand- ing as a PN candidate. This is exactly what Labour wants to avoid by turn- ing these elections into a clear choice between Simon Busuttil and Joseph Muscat. Labour's negative campaign In fact the overdose of negative campaigning targeting Simon Busut- til (#simoneggativ) suggests a degree of unease within Labour's ranks and a tacit recognition that the opposi- tion leader is a force to be reckoned with. For despite the government's nine- seat majority, Busuttil's hard-line opposition pushed the government's hand on a number of occasions, such as when Muscat was left with no op- tion but to sack his home affairs minister, Manuel Mal- lia. Moreover while Busuttil dis- appoints in TV debates, he has given his best in parliament, where he is a constant thorn in the government's side. Labour's spots sneering at Busut- til suggest that the party in govern- ment still has an advantage over the PN when it comes to wit and intel- ligent campaigning. But hitting out at Busuttil's negativity with negative campaigning may backfire. This is because Labour's attitude towards Busuttil is reminiscent of the PN's media shenanigans' dismissive at- titude towards Alfred Sant before 1996, immortalised in the "ma tistax tafdah" billboards. By belittling the leader of the op- position Labour is showing signs of a superiority complex just two years after being elected to power. A land- slide in local elections would well strengthen this tendency. But so far the electorate's misgiv- ings on Muscat have not resulted in any gains for the opposition or its leader. This is because Labour re- tains one major advantage: Muscat still outperforms Busuttil in televised confrontation. Milking Giovanna Moreover by harping on cases in- volving former PN ministers like Giovanna Debono, Muscat has suc- ceeded in deflecting criticism on the Café Premier bailout, the SOCAR hedging deal and Engerer's appoint- ment to an €85,000 ambassadorial post. MOR voters may increasingly no- tice the contrast between Muscat's outrage at the actions of past PN ministers and growing signs of cro- nyism on his watch. But other voters, especially switch- ers, still feel vindicated by cases like that involving Giovanna Debono. Muscat may still be benefiting from the natural tendency of switchers to defend the choice they made in the last general elections. In its bid to recover their vote, the PN seems to forget that converts tend to be more fanatical in defending their choices than true believers. The Giovanna Debono case also vindicates one of Muscat's landmark reforms: the introduction of whistle blower legislation. But the real test for this important piece of legislation will be when it is used to expose abuse done on Mus- cat's watch. For this would show whether whistle blowers denounc- ing cases involving the government currently in office feel safe enough to come forward. Chronicles of a victory foretold Like Busuttil, Muscat has avoided setting any tangible benchmarks ex- cept for saying that he wants to go in the history books as the first PM to win local elections. But this comes across as an easily predictable feat. After winning two consecutive elections by a 35,000 vote margin, Muscat is the sure winner of next week's local elections. But any gains by the PN, even if modest, over their performance in the previous round of local elections may be interpreted as a setback for Muscat. On the other hand if Muscat wins by a similar margin he would once again have dealt a blow to the opposition. This would enable Muscat to ride roughshod over the opposition in the next months. For if Muscat manages to strengthen his majority at this stage, this may well be seen as a sign that he is immune from any criticism on lack of transparency. Muscat's greatest difficulty in these elections may well be disgruntlement among Labour voters. Rather than defections to the PN, the greatest problem for Muscat may well be ab- stentions on his own side that could result in a lower turnout in PL-domi- nated localities. Yet the past suggests that it is PN voters, especially those in affluent areas, who are less likely to vote in local elections. Probably Muscat is banking on a high turnout of PL voters and a low turnout for the PN to retain the par- ty's 55% majority. But the dynamics of the parallel Spring hunting refer- endum may thwart this design, rais- ing the turnout in both pro and anti hunting localities. Muscat's referendum dilemma Muscat has refrained from actively campaigning for the hunting lobby but has twice broken his word to stay out of the fray by reiterating that he will be voting yes. Interestingly, Muscat has always spoken on this is- sue while speaking in Gozo. This may suggest that Muscat has made a strategic calculation: that speaking on this issue in Gozo may help him in his bid to retain Qala and perhaps make inroads in other PN dominated localities. The dilemma for Muscat is wheth- er his pro hunting declarations will alienate a category of liberal, animal loving and bourgeois voters, whom the party targeted before the 2013 election. Moreover Muscat's unsubstanti- ated accusation that Busuttil was privately supporting the no camp after having said that he had sup- ported the yes camp, may well have been one of his lowest moments of the campaign. Surely Muscat is never keen on los- ing and will only speak up on an issue if he can milk some political capital out of it. But it remains unclear whether Muscat's readiness to stick his neck out for the hunters is his way of hon- ouring his obligations to the hunting lobby in the face of an inevitable de- feat, or a sign that Muscat considers the referendum winnable for the yes camp. For Muscat may well be shielding himself from accusations that he let hunters down by not actively cam- paigning for them in the referendum even through a few token gestures. For if the no camp wins, it would mean that spring hunting will be abolished on Muscat's watch. Hunt- ers may never forgive him for not do- ing enough for their cause. But if the referendum is winnable by the yes Muscat may well consider it as a golden opportunity to give a knockout blow to the green lobby, before the government embarks on a number of controversial projects like land reclamation, the proposed planning amnesty, the extension of ODZs and the Gozo airstrip. exam JOSEPH MUSCAT Joseph Muscat, tireless campaigner