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maltatoday, SUNDAY, 19 APRIL 2015 6 News CONTINUED FROM PAGE 1 But the result in Maltese localities shows that Mus- cat's strategy of turning local elec- tions into a vote on his performance in government was not entirely suc- cessful, and the PN believe this is his first electoral setback. Muscat saw declines in support and corresponding PN increases in Marsa, Marsaxlokk, and Birzebbugia – towns burdened by power plants and industrial complexes – where La- bour campaigned heavily on energy. In Marsaxlokk and Birzebbugia, the PN increased its vote count by 60% and 70%, maybe a sign that Labour has over-reached itself in its zealous over-confidence and negative cam- paigning. For Simon Busuttil, the referendum turnout meant that even in traditional hunter country, he was rewarded. Far from the knock-out blow that was ex- pected, Busuttil survived by the skin of his teeth to halve the PL-PN mar- gin down to some nine points. Labour's vote is now two points higher in the same 34 localities whose elections were last held in 2007 and 2008, the latter coinciding with the PN's wafer-thin majority during the general elections. Hunting and misplaced triumphalism Irrespectively of his vote in favour of spring hunting, Busuttil benefitted from higher turnouts in PN-leaning towns that registered a strong vote against spring hunting. Attard and Balzan had turnouts of 15 and 17 points higher than in 2012, and these increased the PN vote count by 50% over 2012; the same goes for Swieqi, with a higher turnout of 10 points, in- creasing the blue vote count by 68%. But the result puts Busuttil in a quandary: he wins in 'anti-hunting' localities and loses in Gozo, which carried the day for the hunting lobby in the referendum; he may have an- gered rank-and-file Nationalists who disagree with his 'yes' vote on hunt- ing, but the party now is in trouble in Gozo. Busuttil's attempt at keeping hunters on board by supporting the derogation from the spring hunting ban failed, and he gets penalised for it. The PN's triumphalism over its small gains made in some localities was overblown when many of these gains were attributed to a higher turn- out among PN voters keen on voting in the referendum, rather than enthu- siasm for the party's leadership. It is Busuttil's leadership that gets some respite, but taking too much comfort from these small gains may backfire on the PN. Questions linger on the effectiveness of Busuttil's lead- ership because his party has still suf- fered another resounding defeat, but the result buys him valuable time. Satisfaction over this result shows the PN has strengthened its elector- al machine, but its leader is still less trusted than Muscat. His own performance during the campaign, marked by a mediocre showing in the TimesTalk debate, was far from convincing, especially after refusing to engage with the me- dia in the last week. His pre-recorded comment after the referendum fur- ther undermined his standing with PN voters, even if this had no impact on the result. Ultimately the result shows the PN itself is more resilient than its own leader. He can bank on resilience in PN heartlands, as was the case in Swieqi, where the party increased its vote by nine percentage points, and also in unlikely localities such as Mar- saxlokk, where the party increased its vote by 10 points. Even where the electorate had a choice of voting for AD, as was the case in Attard, the PN still increased its vote share. Busuttil's next electoral appoint- ment is the 2018 general election, where he must accelerate the pace of change rather than feel comforted by these elections. PN secretary-general Chris Said, who must be credited with rebuilding the party machine, has presided over major losses in Gozo, his own elec- toral district, which nearly offset the gains made in the mainland. But a large number of new candi- dates and holding the government accountable on a number of cases may have weakened Muscat's moral legitimacy, pumping some vitality in the PN. Deputy leaders Mario de Marco and Beppe Fenech Adami both have a stake in Busuttil's leadership. And while Busuttil's chances of becoming prime minister in 2018 appear far off at best, new candidates touted to be lining up for a stab at the party lead- ership include MEP Roberta Metsola Triccas and Claudio Grech. But their post-2018 chances would be seriously hampered if the PN does not show any clear signs of recovery by the next general election. The signs coming from this round of elections are at best mixed and in the case of Gozo negative. Victory at what price? Muscat yesterday refused any cor- relation with his referendum effort, but the positive result again is linked to a strong showing in Gozo where he reaped dividends for supporting the hunting lobby and where the PN was shaken to its foundations by the works-for-votes scandal. It is yet to be seen whether his strong Gozo showing is a rebellion against political patronage or just the entrenchment of new networks of fa- vouritism. Labour's pro-hunting agenda could have neutralised any inroads he was making among PN voters: the elec- tion shows that Muscat's star is wan- ing among the pale blue voters he has been courting, but he is compensated by the eternal gratitude of the hunt- ing lobby. In this sense the result con- firms the geographical divide emerg- ing in the hunting referendum. The 10-point gap between the two parties tallies with the gap between the two parties in MaltaToday's lat- est survey, which had shown Labour leading by eight points. The survey had asked respondents how they would vote in a general election and was based on a national sample. Elec- tions were only held in half the coun- cil localities. One has also to consider that this round of localities is more favourable to Labour than Malta as a whole. In fact Labour had won local elec- tions in the same localities by 52% in 2007 and 2008, when the PN was stronger than in 2012. But the same surveys showed Muscat enjoying a trust lead of 15 points. Another victory for Muscat It is Busuttil's leadership that gets some respite, but taking too much comfort from these small gains may backfire on the PN PHOTOGRAPHY BY CHRIS MANGION