Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/594552
maltatoday, SUNDAY, 1 NOVEMBER 2015 16 "I always said that we have – that I have – a 15-year plan; five years in Opposi- tion and 10 years in government," the Prime Minister said quite significantly on Reporter last Monday. Two self-im- posed terms, mirroring the legal stay for US presidents, and signaling a departure from his party's post, dominated first by Dom Mintoff serving for 35 years, then by Alfred Sant for 16. Only Karmenu Mifsud Bonnici bowed down after eight years and two defeats. Muscat's plan looks bold and fresh. But there's a propaganda effect that boosts his immediate goal: winning the next election. For his voters, it addresses the concern that re-election is needed to consolidate the regime; and it counterbal- ances his image as overbearing strongman, condescending towards the Opposition, a factor that dents his image. Limiting his stay to two terms gives the impression that Muscat is not attached to power and that unlike his predecessors, he will let go the reins of power without much ado. So when all is said and done, does this mean Labour gets a new leader in 10 years' time? With Muscat's status as undisputed leader and his highly personalised style of leadership, the transition could be diffi- cult in such a short span of time. Blessed by fortune In 2008 Muscat was given a blank cheque by his party to render Labour electable af- ter three consecutive defeats. He refash- ioned it in his own image, jettisoning the post of secretary-general – which creates a rival power base – and appointed his own CEO and brought in outsiders to fill the ranks of an alternative government. Bolstered by an unprecedented 36,000- vote majority and a nine-seat majority Muscat retains his trust lead over the PN, which is still reeling from the electoral defeat and the baggage of its recent past. Earlier on Muscat had read the signs of the times, challenging the conservative social mores of Nationalist administrations and setting in motion a social revolution by way of civil unions, gay adoptions, and re- laxed drug and censorship laws. He was helped by a more favourable in- ternational economic climate, marked by lower oil prices which back in 2008 crip- pled the Gonzi administration; Muscat has even cushioned himself from any future mishap through the Individual Invest- ment Programme, which has transformed citizenship into a commodity but earned Muscat the pork barrel he may need to win the next election. In so doing he ac- cepted a humiliating contractual obliga- tion to promote Henley's IIP programme abroad; the IIP cash will avoid him the painful choice between increasing taxes and cutting spending, while accelerating the pace of economic growth. His is a short-term approach. Painful reforms like second-pillar pensions don't trouble him while growth fuelled by con- struction and the IIP fit in neatly in his 10- year plan. So does the five-year fixed price agreement with ElectroGas, which expires midway in the next legislature. A united party Without the socialist ideology, Muscat's undisputed and personalised hold over Labour is reminiscent of the caudillo-like Dom Mintoff. Growing concerns on gov- ernance, cronyism and loss of open spaces have so far not seriously eroded his hold on power. Muscat says he leads a 'movement' that includes persons more loyal to him than to the party which he has eclipsed without evoking any reaction. Apart from Marlene Farrugia's principled concern on the environment, there is little dissent in the party. There is no left-wing minority, although that may yet emerge, as happened inside British Labour with Jeremy Corbyn's surprise election by rank and file members rebelling against the drift to the right. But at this point in time there is little discussion in the party about a leadership successor. His self-imposed limit of a dec- ade in power echoes Eddie Fenech Adami's declaration that govern- ments should alternate every 10 years. But unlike Fenech Adami, Muscat has im- posed a shelf-life on himself rather than on his party, which may outlive him by winning a third consecutive election un- der a new leader. In this sense the power networks cre- ated by Muscat may well surpass him. But Muscat has created a system of power that militates against an easy transition to a new leader. Like Tony Blair, who domi- nated his party, he may well end up leav- ing a poisoned chalice to his successor. By fashioning the party in his own im- age and eclipsing it, it has become hard to imagine any successor standing out. With no visible dissent or any real ideologi- cal debate, Muscat could opt to anoint a leader who shares his ideology but lacks his gravitas. To resign before or after 2023? Muscat's declaration evokes two pos- sible scenarios. Assuming he wins the next election, Muscat could serve two full terms as PM and immediately resign af- ter the 2023 election, irrespective of the result. But this would mean that Muscat risks his first electoral defeat, a possibility that could worsen if voters do not know who their PM would be if Labour is re- elected for a third time. This would be a serious liability that creates uncertainty, unless there is a designate-leader… but again, this might create resentment inside the party among those who feel excluded. Muscat may well be aping Tony Blair, who renounced the leadership after three consecutive electoral victories. Blair and Gordon Brown were said to have sealed a pact well before the former became party leader; he later very reluctantly handed over power after securing a third term. It is unclear whether Muscat has a successor in mind, although this allows him to com- mand the loyalty of all potential successors jockeying for his favour in a potential leadership bid. Another option for Labour would be that of electing its new leader some time before the 2023 elec- tion. But any newly elected leader would need time to consolidate his position as leader. This would mean that Labour would be fac- ing a leadership election in four or five years' time, something which is bound to weaken party unity in the next years as prospective can- didates start testing the ground for a leadership bid, and create tension between rival aspirants in the par- liamentary group. Potential candidates could include young, promising lawmakers like Justice Minister Owen Bonnici, who may steer the party to the left, the popular tourism minister Edward Zammit Lewis, who may be more business friendly, and maybe the Muscat has a 10-year plan... Has Muscat opened a Pandora's box in his party by hinting that the party will have to elect a new leader in seven years' time? asks JAMES DEBONO The self-imposed 10-year timetable may well make it unlikely for Muscat to serve two full terms, so he could opt for two shorter, four-year terms, hoping that a third term would give his party a two-year breathing space to elect a new leader News