Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/621909
maltatoday, SUNDAY, 3 JANUARY 2016 News 13 PREDICTING how things will turn out in Europe during the New Year probably makes less sense than describing what are the challenges – or crisis points if you like – that need to be faced. These have been piling up over the past 18 months. They have strained political cohesion within the EU and undermined its economic effectiveness. Top on the list, as interlinked but separate issues, come terrorism and immigration. The "new" terrorism is ostensibly a reply to French and British military involvement in the Middle East. In reality it is fed by Europe's failure to economically and culturally integrate strata of young, unemployed Muslims, born in Eu- rope of immigrant parents and living in marginalised and deprived communities. The huge surge in immigrant numbers that occurred in 2015 is likely to continue in 2016, especially if Libya's prob- lems persist and Turkey slackens its commitment to restrict refugee outflows. Germany is reaching the limit of what it can reason- ably absorb in the short term. It will press oth- er member states to assume more of the burden. Since in the view of some, Germany was instrumental in encouraging the refugee build-up, this pressure will be resisted. No wonder that EU member states are still divided over a common response by way of: anti-terrorist military action; effective cooperation on security matters; management of external border controls; maintenance of freedom of circu- lation within an already fractured Schengen zone, as well as inside the Union; the repartitioning of refugees by country quotas; concerns related to human rights and "European" values; financial back-up for enhanced security measures and refugee support inside and outside the Union; the main- tenance or otherwise of Dublin II arrangements. All these dilemmas plus others raise fractious uncertainties. Meanwhile, the economic sit- uation remains problematic. Deflation is undermining recovery and investment, despite the quantitative eas- ing programme being run by the European Central Bank for the eurozone. Too many economies are either stagnant or registering slight growth. Un- employment among the young is too high. As a whole, the EU is recording big trade surpluses with the rest of the world, while internal consumption stays flat. Austerity has succeeded in driving eurozone budgets within the guiding limits set by the Stability and Growth Pact, but at tremendous political and social costs. It has failed to trigger significant growth, except arguably in Spain. The momen- tum to "complete" the economic and monetary union has weakened considerably. Unsurprisingly, the divergence between north and south continues to deepen. Greece has been brought back under economic and social tutelage following the brief revolt of the Tsipras administration. However, a new breakdown in the Greek "bail-out" programme cannot be excluded. Fragile majorities Meanwhile, EU member states will negotiate changes to the UK's membership terms. Some accommodation be- tween the British and the rest should be possible. It could require compromises that will not be to the taste of all. Turmoil could result from the referendum in Britain on the country's continued membership of the EU, which should follow. It will come hot on the heels of another referendum in Holland during the spring, focusing on EU-Ukraine rela- tions. The latter, and the stand-off with Russia that has devel- oped as a result, will again threaten political cohesion among EU member states. Inherent differences of national interests and appreciation regarding Russia have been smoothed over up to now. They could be sharpened by terrorist and im- migration issues, in the absence of a modus vivendi on the Ukraine that would be acceptable to all. All this amounts to quite a long agenda of woes. It requires the EU to operate in firefighting mode. Yet on a national level, traditional parties of the mainstream left and right are facing huge difficulties. Globalisation and the European "project" have over the years brought the traditional main- stream left and right to endorse convergent policies. However, these now seem powerless on the economic and immigration fronts. Voters are increasingly turning towards more radical proposals on left and right, delivering fragile governing majorities. This has happened in Greece, Hol- land, Denmark, Finland, Portugal and Spain. Quite possibly, France is next in line. The year 2015 has not been a good one for Europe. Unfortunately, the chances that 2016 will record an im- provement appear still to be quite slim at the time of writ- ing. EU and regional security LIBYA has become an ever-shifting quagmire of power politics, and it is incredibly difficult to predict how the civil war will develop in 2016. I do expect to see more welcome gestures of peace – more agreements, treaties, handshakes and ceremonies – and perhaps Malta will once again be used as the base for these events. However, it will be incredibly naïve to hope for any real solution to the civil war to be found next year, or the year after, or perhaps even in the next generation. Yes, the UN has now proposed a new unity government but any solution proposed by the international commu- nity for peace in Libya will always frustrate some factions as much as it pleases others. Do not expect any miracles to take place in Libya next year. The crux of the Libyan problem is that it was never truly a nation state. Muammar Gaddafi ran the country as a one-man show and didn't develop any democratic institutions. It will take time and require trial and error for the Liby- ans to develop institutions that the people can trust. Try- ing to enforce a quick-fix solution from outside will only push current factions underground. The presence of ISIS in Libya has added a dose of ur- gency for a solution to be found, but even there we must reframe our understanding of the group's presence in the country. What we know of ISIS is actually a continuation of Gaddafi; ISIS militants based in Sirte are actually his former soldiers and police force. Sirte was Gaddafi's stronghold, but it was razed to the ground during the Arab Spring, and the leader's once- powerful supporters became zeros overnight. Of course they are now filled with hatred and a desire to regain their lost power, and the consequence has been the rise of ISIS. It's a similar situation in Iraq really, which was always Sunni- controlled until a Shia government came to power following the fall of Saddam Hussein. Saddam's former army and supporters now want their power back, and have flocked under ISIS' flag to regain it; indeed ISIS's Iraq base is in Anbar – a former Saddam stronghold. Of course, the Libyan civil war is not simply an inter- nal war, and global powers and weapons dealers all have their own interests in the country. Governments have become weaker in a globalised world, and arms dealers now form part of a fully-fledged transnational industry. International powers – Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, USA, UAE – will continue to play their parts, financing and arming the Tripoli and Tobruk factions to create a delicate and constantly oscillating balance. Russia will probably develop more of a presence in the region, as usual acting as a thorn in the United States' sides in for- eign countries of US interest. Expect the renegade General Khalifa Haftar to play a key role too; he is supported by Egypt, who wants Libya to be a military-run state. Libya has become an interna- tional battleground, and the level of analysis is now very blurry. As told to Tim Diacono Alfred Sant, Labour MEP and former prime minister Arsalan Alshinawi, senior lecturer in international relations, University of Malta Voters are increasingly turning towards more radical proposals on left and right, delivering fragile governing majorities 'Chances that 2016 will improve things for Europe are slim' 'It will be naive to expect a Libyan solution any time soon' Expect the renegade General Khalifa Haftar to play a key role too; he is supported by Egypt, who wants Libya to be a military-run state