Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/643092
maltatoday, SUNDAY, 21 FEBRUARY 2016 12 MaltaToday Survey Present voting intentions of different categories of 2013 voters 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 For which political party would you vote if an election were held tomorrow? 1.4% 6.8% 5.5% 86.3% 74.2% 33.3% 4% 9% 10.7% 0.7p -0.2p -0.1p -1p -5.5p 6.1p CHANGE OVER JANUARY 30.9% 27.4% 0.8% 12.7% 13.1% 15.1% PL PN AD Not voting Don't know No reply 33.3% PN VOTERS in 2013 PL VOTERS in 2013 SWITCHERS in 2013 ALL RESPONDENTS CONTINUES FROM PAGE 1 In the trust barom- eter, Busuttil now trails Muscat by eight points, down from nine last month. This is the lowest gap between the two leaders reg- istered in the past two years. But the PL is now leading the PN by four points – up from three points last month. The PL's gain is accounted for by a small de- cline in the number of PL voters in 2013 who were undecided in the last survey. The gap between the two parties is still a far cry from the 12-point lead the PL en- joyed in the 2013 general election. This is because although the PN is making signifi- cant gains among switchers, while Labour is being heavily penalised in the polls by the abstention of traditional Labour voters. But it is not just the PL which is affected by disgruntlement. In a sign of widespread disgruntlement with the political establish- ment, nine per cent of all PL voters in 2013 and seven per cent of all PN voters in 2013 are presently intent on not voting, while 11% in both parties trust neither Muscat nor Busuttil. The survey also confirms a shift from the PL towards the PN. While just 1% of PN voters in 2013 are presently intent on vot- ing for Labour, 4% of PL voters would vote for the PN. The survey shows the PN con- solidating its vote, losing the least number of votes to the PL since 2013 and Busuttil trusted by 86% of PN voters, up five points from last month. If the PN manages to con- vince PN voters who say they are intent on not voting, it could further close the gap. Moreover while 6% of PL voters now trust Busuttil more than Muscat, only 1% of PN voters trust Muscat more than Busuttil. And 28% of switchers also say they are now intent on voting PN. Muscat leads by 8 points Despite the difficulties he is facing as PM, Muscat retained a strong trust lead but has seen a three-point drop since October and a point since January. Significantly he has seen his trust-rating decline by seven points since March last year. This suggests that diminishing standards of governance have taken a toll on the PM's popularity. Busuttil has slightly capitalised on these losses, increasing his trust rating by a point over last month and two points over March 2015. Overall, while Muscat's ratings have been consistently going down over the past months, Busuttil's ratings have remained stable. The survey also confirms Busuttil's grow- ing appeal to a segment of switchers who voted PN in 2008 and Labour in 2013. Back in March 2015, only 9% of these voters pre- ferred him. Now 28% of switchers prefer him to Muscat. Busuttil has also firmly consolidated his position among 2013 PN voters – 86%, up from 81% in January who regard him as most to be trusted, up from 79% in Octo- ber and 77% in June. This shows that over the past months Busuttil consolidated his position among PN voters while making limited inroads among switchers and La- bour voters. Yet the survey shows that he is making no inroads among traditional Labour vot- ers. In the absence of this it will be very dif- ficult for the PN to win the next election. Muscat seems to have lost his ability to charm a segment of the PN's 2013 voters: only 1% say they now prefer him to Busut- til, down from 6% in October. What will be of concern to Muscat is the confirmation of a numerous segment of PL voters in 2013 who trust neither leader – up from seven to 11% since June. Busuttil stands strong with his restricted electorate, while Muscat faces problems with his elec- torate and has stopped enticing PN voters. PN consolidates vote For the fourth consecutive time, the sur- vey registers a small but significant shift in favour of the PN. Four per cent of PL voters in 2013 say they will vote for the PN; only 1% of PN voters will vote PL. This suggests Labour has lost over 6,700 votes of its 2013 voters to the PN, which is itself losing 1,300 to the PL. In a sign of consolidation, compared to last month both parties are losing fewer votes to each other. But similarly to last month Labour is losing more votes to the PN than vice versa. Moreover for the first time in the past two years the PN has managed to stem the haemorrhage of votes to Labour. The party seems less vulnerable to Mus- cat's appeal to middle-of-the-road voters. In fact the percentage of 2013 PN voters who intend to switch to Labour has de- clined from 5% in October to 3% in Janu- ary to just 1% now. This could be an indi- cation that Muscat's actions over the past months have dented his appeal among all shades of PN voters. Yet the decline of PN voters who would vote PL (from three to one per cent) is corresponded by an increase in those who would not vote (from two to seven per cent). This could be another sign that Labour is now seen as a no go area by PN voters in general. Only a third of switchers sure of voting PL Switchers remain a highly volatile cat- egory. While Labour manages to retain 33% of switchers, 28% will be voting PN. Significantly, 51% of switchers' votes are up for grabs and could determine the outcome of the next general election. But Labour may take a greater share of switchers in an actual election. This is 5.6% Muscat's electoral challenge lies with disgruntled Labour voters For the fourth consecutive time, the survey registers a small but significant shift in favour of the PN Muscat still commands a stronger following than his party. 37% trust Muscat more than Busuttil, when only 31% say they will vote Labour if an election were held now Methodology Survey held between Monday 15 February and Thursday 18 February. 648 respondents contacted and survey stopped after 450- quota sample reached. Margin of error +/-4.6 percentage points. For which party did respondents say they voted in 2013 PL 38.9% PN 26.5% AD 1.2% Didn't vote 3.9% Under-18 1.5% No reply 28% 27.8%