Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/670480
maltatoday, SUNDAY, 24 APRIL 2016 16 MaltaToday Survey JAM ES DEBONO MALTATODAY'S survey for April – car- ried out in the week since a motion of no confidence was filed by the Opposition, which the government carried – suggests that Prime Minister Joseph Muscat has managed to widen the gap between him and Busuttil from four points last month to seven points now, which is slightly lower than the gap between the two lead- ers registered in February. The fluctuations between the two sur- veys are also within the survey's margin of error. Prime Minister Joseph Muscat has strengthened himself among core Labour voters. In fact the survey shows that 92% of respondents who voted Labour in 2008 trust Muscat more than Busuttil, up from 86% last month. Compared to last month the percentage of PL voters in 2008 who now trust neither leader has declined from 9% to 5%. This suggests that the motion of no confidence presented by the PN in parlia- ment on Monday may well have had the unforeseen effect of boosting Muscat's standing among Labour's core vote. The survey shows that the PM has largely emerged unscathed from the no- confidence vote presented by the oppo- sition last Monday, with his trust rating increasing by nearly six points over last month. In an indication of the worsen- ing polarised climate Busuttil has also seen his rating rise by two points. The increase in trust in both leaders comes in the wake of a 12-point drop of respond- ents who were undecided when choosing between the two leaders last month. The percentage who trust neither leader has also gone up by five points. Both leaders registered an increase in support among voters of their respective parties. Muscat's trust rating increased from 78% to 83% among PL voters while Busuttil's trust rating increased from 87% to 89% of PN voters. While the survey shows Muscat leading Busuttil by seven points (up from four points last month) the PN is trailing the PL by just two points (up from one point last month). But the survey still shows that 40% of switchers trust neither leader while a third trust Muscat. Only 17% of switchers trust Busuttil more than Muscat. Busuttil has also improved his trust rat- ing among PN voters but at a lower rate than Muscat did among his own support- ers. Among PN voters in 2013 Busuttil has seen the percentage of those who trust him over Muscat increase from 87% to 89%. Despite the wider gap in Muscat's fa- vour, the survey shows Simon Busuttil registering his highest ever trust rating in a MaltaToday survey. It also shows Mus- cat gaining his highest trust rating since January 2015. But rather than reflecting a surge of popularity for either leader, these results must be seen in a context of worsening political polarisation, which has made people more willing to express their trust in either of the two leaders. But respondents remained lukewarm when asked which party they would vote for. In fact both leaders are more popular than their party. While Busuttil is three points more popular than the PN, Mus- cat is eight points more popular than his own party. But this suggests that the PL, which is leading by just two points, has greater room to grow among the larger percentage of respondents who trust Muscat more than Busuttil, than the PN does among those who trust Busuttil more than Muscat. PL leads by 2 points The two-point gap between the two big political parties remains within the sur- vey's +/-4.3 point margin of error which means that either of the two parties could be leading. The survey shows the PN losing 2% of its 2013 voters to the PL and the PL losing 5% of its 2013 voters to the PN. This suggests that the PN is still mak- ing inroads among different categories of Labour voters. One fifth of switchers (20%) are now intent on voting PN while a slightly higher percentage (23%) will vote PL again. But the PN is also attract- ing a small but strategic number of tra- ditional Labour voters. The survey shows 3% of Labour voters in the 2008 general election would vote for the PN. The PN makes significant inroads among non- voters in the 2013 election. While none of these voters would now vote PL, 16% would vote PN. Confidence motion retrenches Labour core and boosts PM's trust Present voting intentions of different categories of 2013 voters 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 For which political party would you vote if an election were held tomorrow? 2.4% 3.6% 2.2% 2.6% 89.2% 76.5% 5.3% 9.7% 6.6% 0.4p -0.8p -0.1p -0.3p -1.1p -0.1p CHANGE OVER MARCH 34.8% 32.7% 1.2% 11.2% 10.2% 8.7% PL PN AD Not voting Don't know No reply 30% PN VOTERS in 2013 PL VOTERS in 2013 SWITCHERS in 2013 ALL RESPONDENTS 26.7% 20% Methodology The survey was held between Tuesday 19 and Thursday 21 April. The results were weighed to reflect the age and gender balance of the population. 803 respondents were contacted. 500 respondents accepted to participate in the survey. The survey has a margin of error of +/-4.3 points. For which party respondents said they voted in 2013 PL 43.5% PN 31.7% AD 1.7% Didn't vote 6% Under-18 1.7% No reply 15.4% Labour has greater room to grow among the larger percentage of respondents who trust Muscat more than Busuttil, than the PN does among those who trust Busuttil more than Muscat 23.3% The motion of no confidence presented by the PN in parliament on Monday may well have had the unforeseen effect of boosting Muscat's standing among Labour's core vote