Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/699546
maltatoday, SUNDAY, 3 JULY 2016 15 Interview Has Europe become a neo-conservative prison from which one can never really escape? Prof. Roderick Pace, of the University's European Institute, on the wider implications of 'Brexit' PHOTOGRAPHY BY CHRIS MANGION any time you like…' sense that other countries will be discouraged from following suit. But let's not forget we are deal- ing with a country that has had 43 years of relationship with the EU, and which is now looking to con- tinue some kind of relationship in future. After 43 years of mar- riage, one side has no right to use its strength to demolish the other, just because they have separated. Especially not if the intention is only to teach the next wife a lesson to 'stay put'…" The question of how fast the UK should withdraw, however, be- comes more complicated on closer scrutiny. "We face problems and challeng- es on many counts. The first chal- lenge is for Britain to have a stable government, so that Europe can negotiate with someone who has the approval of parliament. That is why Cameron set himself three months to prepare for the next general conference to elect a new party leader, so that his successor would have the full constitutional authority to lead negotiations. Sec- ondly, things have to calm down. It is important for the EU that Brexit is negotiated quickly, but also properly. The logical sequential process should be: first the UK be- comes a non-member; then, a new form of relationship is negotiated. We also have to acknowledge that, though many voted in haste or in anger, many also voted on convic- tion. When I see Nigel Farage on TV, I don't agree with his views… many of them make me laugh, to be honest… but in a democracy, those views have to be respected, whether you agree with them or not." Speaking of the forthcoming Brexit negotiations… implicit in the reaction to Brexit is the wide- spread view that Britain has just 'shot herself in the foot'. Certainly the immediate impact – on the sterling, on Britain's stock market, etc. – has been dire. But the euro- zone has arguably been harder hit over the years… and the EU still faces an unresolved debt crisis, not to mention skyrocketing youth un- employment. Why is there the assumption that Britain is in a weaker negotiating position than the EU? "I don't think the UK is in a strong position. Quite the contra- ry, because she now has to negoti- ate some form of agreement from the outside. 63% of the UK's agri- cultural products, as well as goods and services, go to the EU. What happens now? As an outsider, will the UK be able to export its goods and services in the same way as be- fore? Also, the UK will still have to adopt around 80% of EU law with- out participating in their approval and amendment from here on." But trade is a two-way affair, and the question can be turned on its head. Is it in the EU's interest to lose the source of 60% of its im- ports? And France, for instance – the second largest EU economy – is a major exporter to the UK. Doesn't the UK have a case when it says that it is in the EU's own inter- est to continue trading with her? "For one thing, I think it will be hard for the UK to reach a deal on agriculture, because of the re- formed Common Agricultural Pol- icy. But leaving that aside: what I think will happen is this. The EU is going to say: 'look, I spend so many billions in my regional and social policies, from a budget to which you [the UK] are not contribut- ing'. So, as is the case with the Eu- ropean Economic Area – Norway, Iceland and Switzerland – the EU will ask for a direct contribution from the UK. The way I see it, both the UK and the EU have need of each other…. but the EU is going to insist that the UK will not have free access to the internal market without contributing to its budget. That's the cost. Now, each mem- ber state will do its own sums, and see how its own economy will be affected. A country like France, for instance, might conclude that the loss of its UK export market, in the event of no agreement, could be offset by diversion of trade. But these are guesses. The real picture isn't clear… not to the British, nor to the rest of Europe. Least of all to me…" There is another problem with predicting the outcome of fu- ture negotiations with the UK. As Brexit itself shows, the EU is still technically at the mercy of any one member state when it comes to taking decisions. Any one member state, for whatever reason, can ve- to any deal struck between Britain and the EU. Isn't this a flaw in the system? And if so: doesn't it also mean that 'democracy' is the flaw? "If it is a flaw, it was introduced in the treaties, which are after all an accord between states. States insisted they wanted to have the last word on any treaty reform, in accordance with their own consti- tutional set-ups. The EU is a union of states, and also a union of peo- ples. So the anomaly you mention can never really be removed, be- cause states will always argue that it is their sovereign right to retain it…" Brexit itself was an example of sovereignty in action, too. The British people exercised their sov- ereign right to take a national deci- sion, and they voted to pull out… "Yes, but they cannot pull out and continue to enjoy the advan- tages of membership. It works both ways. This also means that if a country decides, for whatever reason, to veto the new agree- ment… it can. It is a drawback of the system and I cannot see how it can be straightened. To use an analogy: in our system, we elect a government every five years, but what that government does from day one, to the last day of its man- date… the citizen has no control whatsoever, because it is left to his representative in parliament. Citizens and civil society can ex- ert pressure on MPs, and get is- sues discussed. But most times this doesn't happen – in practical terms, the citizen is completely cut off from the decision-making process, except during elections. There is a democratic deficit built into the system. We talk of the EU's democratic deficit, but we don't talk so much about our own. Some of these deficits are inherent to the political systems, and are not easy to remove."