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maltatoday, SUNDAY, 31 JULY 2016 10 News Trump's potential path to the White House The question everybody is asking is whether Donald Trump can win the US presidential election in November. JURGEN BALZAN looks at why and how the maverick Republican candidate can be handed the keys to the Oval Office W hen Donald Trump announced he would be running for US president in June 2015, many thought it was a joke. Just over a year later, the maverick businessman is the official Republican candidate and what at first looked like an impos- sible feat has now turned into a nightmare for many in America and abroad. While Trump has been branded a clown, a homegrown dem- agogue, a narcissist, insane, racist and even a fascist, he enjoys wide support and a Republican victory is far from impossible. Ultimately it will boil down to which candidate can mobilise most supporters and inspire most people to go out to vote, and after two terms in office it will take a gargantuan effort from the Democrats to recreate the enthusiasm seen in the past two elections, which saw Barack Obama win on the back of huge popular support. Obama has recently warned Democrats to be "worried until all those votes are cast and counted because you know, one of the dangers in an election like this is that people don't take the challenge seriously. They stay home. And we end up getting the unexpected." Up to a few weeks ago, Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton held a healthy lead in the polls but following the shootings of police officers in Dallas and the terrorist attacks in France and Germany, which potentially play into Trump's gloomy narra- tive, the Republican candidate has a slender lead in the poll averages. But as shown in last year's election in the UK and the 2012 US election, pollsters do not always get it right and with Clinton expected to regain her lead following this week's Democratic convention, all is set for a close result. With polling just 100 days away, anything can happen be- tween now and then and a number of indicators do not bode well for the Democrats and Hillary Clinton. Voters want change When voters demand change, they normally overlook the new candidate's shortcomings and the experienced candidate is subject to more scrutiny. One of Trump's strongest arguments is that he represents change and Clinton does not. The former First Lady is widely seen as the establishment's candidate and November's election is taking place in a year of unprecedented insurgency. Trump is definitely not establishment and Clinton's rival in the Democratic primaries, Bernie Sanders – who describes himself as a democratic socialist – enthused millions of young voters and won over 45% of pledged delegates. Obama's lukewarm job approval combined with mediocre economic growth and second-term fatigue point towards a close race. Moreover in the past 65 years, only one party has won three consecutive terms. According to the trend, after two terms in office the Demo- crats are likely to lose power and normally the electorate seeks change whoever the candidates are. Over the past 65 years, only the Republicans managed to win a third consecutive term. That was in 1988, when Republican George H.W. Bush followed Ronald Reagan's two-term presi- dency. Trump won big in the primaries Some US political analysts believe that primary votes have no bearing on general elections, but others base their predictions on primary election results. Generally, the party with the stronger primary candidate wins the general election and this year Trump won more primaries than Clinton. Hawaii Vt. N.H. Mass. R.I. Conn. N.J. Del. The map putting Trump in the White House In this map, Republican nominee Donald Trump (red) wins five key swing states: Nevada, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire and North Carolina, giving him an equal number of electoral college votes as Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. A tie could lead to a Trump presidency as the decision will be down to the at present Republican-dominated House of Representatives