Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/734031
maltatoday, SUNDAY, 2 OCTOBER 2016 18 MaltaToday Survey JAM ES DEBONO MALTATODAY'S survey for September – conducted after the summer recess and a week after Opposition leader Simon Bu- suttil's address to party supporters on In- dependence day – shows Prime Minister Joseph Muscat still leading Busuttil by 7.7 percentage points, a marginal increase of half a point over the past four months, when respondents were asked which leader they trusted the most. This suggests that there have been very few changes since MaltaToday's last sur- vey held in May, with Muscat only mak- ing a small recovery after the dip in trust he endured after Panamagate but Busut- til also failing to make any significant in- roads during the summer months. As regards voting intentions, the survey also shows Labour leading by 2.7 points in voting intentions, up from one point last month, with Labour gaining half a point and the PN losing one point. The PL's advantage falls within the sur- vey's margin of error of +/-4.3 points. Both political leaders have seen a slight one-point increase in their trust rating, which was reflected in a three-point drop among those who trust neither leader. Both political leaders remain more popular than their party. But while Jo- seph Muscat's trust rating is nine points higher than the support for his party, Bu- suttil's trust rating is four points higher than support for his party. This indicates that Labour has space for future growth among that category of electors who pre- fer Muscat to Busuttil, but who are not committed with regard to voting inten- tions. But while Labour starts with this nota- ble advantage, MaltaToday's survey con- firms a shift in favour of the PN. While only 2% of PN voters in 2013 say they would now vote Labour, 6% of PL voters in 2013 say they would vote PN. The survey shows that the PN has recov- ered a section of switchers who voted PN in 2008 and PL in 2013, while mak- ing small inroads among more traditional Labour voters. In fact 3% of PL voters in 2008 would now vote PN. But the PN's inroads do not add up sufficiently to overturn Labour's majority. The survey also shows a 4.4% intent on voting for third parties. But the third- party vote is split between those intend- ing to vote AD (2.1%), Marlene Farrugia's Democratic Party (1.5%) and other small parties (0.8%). While AD and the PD retained the same level of support as registered in May, sup- port for other parties increased by 0.4%. But not voting remains a more appeal- ing option for voters. In fact while 4.4% intend voting for a small party, a tenth of voters are intent on not voting. Who is switching now? The survey shows that more voters are shifting from Labour to the PN than vice-versa, with both Busuttil and the PN making significant inroads among switchers and to a smaller extent among traditional PL voters (those who voted Labour in 2008). While 2% (up from 1% in May) of PN voters in 2013 would vote Labour now, 6% of PL voters in 2013 (up from 4% in May) now opt for the PN. Moreover 3% of PL voters in 2008 (down from 5% in May) will now vote PN. Significantly 5% of La- bour voters in 2008 trust Busuttil more than Muscat. In this sense the survey confirms the emergence of a small category of switch- ers who voted for Alfred Sant's Labour in 2008 and reject Muscat's party now. This shift may explain why the PN leader has been making a concerted effort to appeal to these voters by focusing on issues like his promise to reverse the increase of housing estate rents if elected. The survey confirms that the PN has not entirely blocked the haemorrhage of votes, which started in 2008 after the election of Muscat as PL leader. 2% of PN voters who voted for Gonzi's party in 2013 have now shifted to Labour while 3% of these voters prefer Muscat to Busuttil. This suggests that Muscat has not entirely lost the power to seduce a segment of the Nationalist electorate. This may also be a reflection of the par- ty's pro-business stance and its appeal to segments and lobbies traditionally closer to the PN. Moreover 7% of PN voters in 2008 will now vote for the PL and 8% of these vot- ers trust Muscat more than Busuttil. This explains the use of Nationalist-friendly faces, such as journalist Karl Stagno Na- varra and former PN mayor Ian Castaldi Paris on the Labour media, in a bid to en- tice and retain former Nationalist voters in Labour's block. The major shifts are occurring among the 'switchers' category. Within this category the PN has con- solidated its position from May, seeing its support rising from 13% in May to 27%. In an indication that these voters are making up their minds, Labour has also seen its support increase from 8% to 20%. Moreover, while 33% of switchers trust Busuttil more than Muscat, only 27% trust Muscat more than Busuttil. In this survey Busuttil registers his best ever trust rating among switchers. This sug- gests that a segment of switchers has gone back home to the PN but it is still not in enough numbers to enable the PN to overtake Labour. This explains why the PN has given so much importance to Salvu Mallia in its Independence Day celebrations, in a bid to create a role model for switchers con- sidering the move back to the PN. The fact that 23% of switchers are still undecided suggests that the PN can still bank on winning more of them over in the next months. Small inroads for PN as more switchers turn back to party For which political party would you vote if an election were held tomorrow? PL PN AD PD Not voting Don't know No reply 31.5% 28.8% 2.1% 1.5% 0.8% 9.6% 14.4% 11.3% Others The major shifts are occurring among the 'switchers' category. Within this category the PN has consolidated its position from May, seeing its support rising from 13% in May to 27% Although the survey shows the PL leading by only three points – which would represent a nine-point drop for Labour when compared to the 2013 election result, Muscat enjoys a trust lead of eight points over Busuttil