Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/750768
maltatoday, SUNDAY, 13 NOVEMBER 2016 17 MaltaToday Survey According to how respondents voted in 2013 PN voters in 2013 PL voters in 2013 Switchers in 2013 76.2% 7.1% 14.8% 2.9% 85.3% 2.9% 8.9% Trust Barometer November 2016 All respondents [change over Sept 2016] 39.6% (-1.3p) 13% (0.9p) 14% (0.8p) Present voting intentions of different categories of 2013 voters 32.8% (-0.4p) PN voters 2013 PL Voters 2013 Switchers 2013 PN voters 2008 PL voters 2008 PL 1.5% 66.1% 28.6% 6% 73.3% PN 80.9% 6.8% 17.8% 65.5% 7.3% AD 2.9% 0 0 2.4% 0 Marlene Farrugia 1.5% 0 0 2.4% 0 Others 0 0.9% 0 0 1.1% Not voting 2.9% 14.7% 39.3% 11.9% 8.9% Don't know 7.4% 7.3% 14.3% 9.5% 4.4% No reply 2.9% 4.2% 0 2.3% 5% Methodology The survey was held between Monday 7 and Thursday, 10 November. The results were weighed to reflect the age and gender balance of the population. 881 respondents were contacted. 500 respondents accepted to participate in the survey. The survey has a margin of error of +/-4.3 points For which party respondents said they voted in 2013 PL 44.5% PN 32.4% AD 0.8% Didn't vote 3.8% Under-18 3.8% No reply 14.7% tional Labour voters than among switchers. In fact 7% of PL voters in 2008 (up from 4% in September) would now vote PN. But the PN's inroads do not add up sufficiently to overturn Labour's overall lead. In this sense the survey confirms the emergence of a small category of switchers who voted for Alfred Sant's Labour in 2008 who not only reject Muscat's party now but are willing to vote PN and prefer Busuttil to Muscat. This shift may explain why the PN leader has been making a concerted effort to ap- peal to these voters by focusing on issues like increasing the minimum wage. Simon Busuttil himself is slightly more popular than his party among Labour vot- ers of 2008. While 8% of these voters pre- fer Busuttil to Muscat, 7% of these voters would vote for the PN now. But the survey confirms that the PN has not entirely blocked the haemorrhage of votes to Muscat's Labour, which started in 2008 after the election of Muscat as PL leader. 2% of PN voters who voted for Gonzi's party in 2013 have now shifted to Labour while 3% of these voters prefer Muscat to Busuttil. This suggests that Muscat has not entirely lost the power to seduce a segment of the Nationalist electorate. This may also be a reflection of the party's pro-business stance and its appeal to segments and lob- bies traditionally closer to the PN. Moreo- ver 6% of PN voters in 2008 will now vote for the PL and 7% of these voters trust Mus- cat more than Busuttil. The survey also shows a 4.4% intent on voting for third parties. But the third-party vote is split between those intending to vote AD (2.1%), Marlene Farrugia's Democratic Party (1.3%) and other small parties (1%). Support for third parties has remained at the same level as in September. But the sur- vey shows the PN losing more support to AD (3% of its 2013 voters) than to the PD (1.5%) while the PL loses 1% to an assort- ment of other parties. Four out of 10 switchers not voting Not voting remains a more appealing op- tion for voters. In fact while 4.4% intend voting for a small party, a tenth of voters are intent on not voting. Significantly four out of every 10 people who switched from the PN to the PL in 2013 are now saying that they will not vote. Another significant segment of non-vot- ers are PL voters from 2008, 9% of whom will not be voting. The percentage rises to 15% among the whole cohort of 2013 vot- ers, who include both switchers and 2008 voters. Moreover 15% of Labour voters in 2013 trust neither Muscat nor Busuttil. This suggests that Labour is facing three main problems: disgruntlement among switchers reflected in 39% of this catego- ry intending not to vote, disgruntlement among traditional Labour voters reflected in 9% of its 2008 voters intending not to vote and the inroads of the PN among both 2008 Labour voters and switchers. But these losses are compensated in a de- crease in decided Labour voters from 13% in September to just 4% now. In fact Labour now retains 66% of its 2013 vote share, up from 64% last month. jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt 28.6% 21.4% 7.1% 42.9%