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maltatoday, SUNDAY, 27 NOVEMBER 2016 News 17 Get your FREE copy with the Maltatoday 4 December, 2016 in the reforms – would be much more fragile and incapable of pro- viding a serious counter-balance should a populist Trump-like lead- er like Matteo Salvini of the Lega Nord gain a majority of votes. But Bagnoli says such a scenario was very improbable in any case. "Grillo is not Trump, with all the defects the latter might have." Local perspective Prof. Arnold Cassola, who holds dual Maltese and Italian citizen- ship and who was an Italian MP between 2006 and 2008 on the Green Party ticket, told MaltaTo- day that he would vote against the referendum because the proposed reforms would give more powers to the prime minister. "The reforms would also see the senate members being nominated instead of being elected by the public, whereas the country should be seeking greater oversight and involvement by the parliament," he said. Cassola said it was not clear what would happen if Renzi loses the referendum and a new government is elected. "Officially nothing will change for Malta, but with Italy currently taking in all immigrants saved or intercepted in our region of the Mediterranean, we need to know if there is a formal agreement be- tween our two countries to this ef- fect," he said. Cassola noted there was no of- ficial agreement between the two countries which stipulated Italy would take in all the immigrants. "If an agreement exists, it's a secret one-to-one agreement be- tween Renzi and (Maltese Prime Minister) Joseph Muscat, and the country needs to know if such an agreement exists and if Malta could be called to start taking in immigrants again." He said that, in the same con- text, the country needed to know if there was such a secret agreement with France as well, in view of the Maltese ministers' ignorance of the presence of French secret service officials operating from Malta, re- vealed following the fatal crash of a Fairchild Metroliner in Luqa on 24 October. Lawyer Joseph Ellis said that the 4 December vote was a constitution- al referendum that had nothing to do with the EU, despite what cer- tain commentators or politicians said. "Whether the result is in favour or against the reforms proposed in the referendum, Italy will not leave the EU, especially in light of all the hassle the Brexit vote has caused the UK." He said the referendum was yet another lame attempt by an Ital- ian government to introduce some constitutional reforms, as Ber- lusconi had also tried to do when prime minister. The reforms proposed would only serve to remove a number of checks and balances currently in place to oversee the government, Ellis said. "It is true that Italian bureaucra- cy is top-heavy, but these are the wrong reforms to put forward," he said. "The country would be better served deciding on what electoral system and legislation to adopt, before a party like the Five-Star Movement garner enough popu- larity and votes to get a majority of seats in parliament." Will the referendum's reforms be passed? If bookmakers and polls are to believed, probably not. At present, Ladbrokes is giving the reforms just a 30 per cent chance of going through. By making the vote personal, Renzi has created the opportunity for a protest vote for the many Italians unhappy about unemployment, austerity and corruption. What's more, the momentum created by the unexpected outcomes of Britain's EU referendum and US election could help the Italian public to envisage a similar rebellion happening in their own country. What will happen to markets if Italy rejects the reforms? Markets hate uncertainty and the shadow of this referendum has been hanging over Italy for months. Unsurprisingly, the Italian stock market is down by about 20% this year to date, the most of any European index. If, as anticipated, the reforms are rejected, then this could be particularly bad news for Italy's embattled banking sector, which has fallen by 50% so far this year. Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS) the world's oldest surviving bank, is currently undergoing drastic cost cutting measures and reportedly looking to raise €5 billion privately after encountering a host of problems including bad debts and low capitalisation. Milan-based UniCredit, meanwhile, is allegedly trying to raise billions of euros to build up its capital buffer. Beppe Grillo – he is not Trump Arnold Cassola – voting against