Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/761508
13 maltatoday, SUNDAY, 11 DECEMBER 2016 Italy speech hours after the massive defeat which saw 60% rejecting his reform, in which he boosted his credentials as a reformer, by saying that unlike others he will not remain gripped to power. But as Prime Minister Jo- seph Muscat suggested (after speaking to his close ally), Renzi "has the energy and is still young enough to return at the highest levels". This raises the question on whether Renzi himself had factored the possibility of defeat in his high-stakes gamble. For the fear of hubris and chaos may well work in Renzi's favour. His political calculation may be that the 40% who voted "yes" for the proposed re- forms provides him with a solid electoral base, which in the fragmented political landscape may well assure him of victory in an electoral campaign dominated by the prospect of more instability and economic decline. Much will depend on whether Renzi will stay on as leader of the Democratic Party. He now faces a stark choice: either taking a sabbatical until after the next election, or to make a last ditch attempt to win back power by seeking the popular mandate. The risk of the latter course is another high-stakes gam- ble with the country's political future. Sure enough Renzi has made it clear that elections should be held as soon as possible. But with the current electoral system, Italy may well end up with none of Italy's three poles, namely the democrats, the centre-right (allied with the Lega Nord) and the M5S able to form a government. But if he persists in a bid to reclaim power after being rejected by 60% of voters, Renzi risks being exposed as a Machiavellian politi- cian who pushed his country to the brink only to advance his own political fortunes. In this case the result could be fatal, for the only al- ternative to Renzi may well be Beppe Grillo or a reinvigorated centre right, which increas- ingly depends on Salvini's far-right. The other alternative may be as lethal, for deprived of Renzi's charisma and ability to reach out to moderate voters, the five star movement may well emerge as Italy's larg- est party. No wonder Grillo has now changed tack, demanding a tweaking of the electoral reform by applying the Italicum (which grants a majority of seats to the party with the great- est number of votes) to the senate (which is still elected through the proportional system). Ironically such a reform would have the same result as Renzi's constitutional reform, granting unlimited power to the relative ma- jority party. In the current fragmented Italian scenario, this could well mean a party with just 30% of the vote getting power without the need to form a coalition. jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt What is the Movimento Cinque Stelle? With the centre-right unable to recover its past glory when Sivio Berlusconi managed to create an alliance of moderates (including former members of the defunct Christian Democrats and Italian Socialists) with the Lega Nord and post-fascist National Alliance, the most plausible alternative to Renzi's Democratic Party is now the 5-star movement (MS%) The MS5 was started by Beppe Grillo (pictured, below), a popular comedian who was once banned from the RAI after criticizing former Italian premier Bettino Craxi, and Gianroberto Casaleggio, a web strategist, in 2009. While the party owes its origins to Grillo's anti- corruption and environmentalist platforms, initially taking votes from the left by opposing high-speed rails and incineration plants, the party has lately become more ambiguous on civil rights and immigration issues. It is this ambiguity which makes the MS5 an attractive option for both angry right-wing voters attracted by Grillo's euroscepticism and left-wing voters who feel betrayed by Renzi's ideological lurch to the centre. It was this combination of disparate groups of voters which facilitated the election of MS5 mayors in Rome and Turin. For while in the first round the two female candidates, Virginia Raggi and Chaira Appendino, won the support of left-wing voters, in the second round they relied on the support of right-wing voters whose candidate was eliminated in the first round. An example of Grillo's ambiguity was his stance on the civil unions law. When the government of Matteo Renzi was finally poised to pass a law on civil unions, the M5S suddenly withdrew support and members were told to vote according to their consciences, thus dooming the most controversial plank, the one allowing gay couples to adopt. Moreover Grillo himself personally opposed the abolition of a law introduced under Berlusconi, which made irregular immigration a criminal act. But in a reflection of the party's disparate composition, the majority of M5S activists voted in favour of the removal of the law. Their partnership with the UK Independence Party was decided by online voting, although the given options for the choice of a European Parliament group for M5S were limited to: Europe of Freedom and Democracy (EFD), European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and "Stay independent" (Non- Inscrits). The option of joining the Greens/EFA group was not included in the choice. MS5 MPs have distinguished themselves by invective and verbal violence against "the establishment", something which appeals to a broad coalition of disenfranchised voters. One notable instance of such verbal violence involved insults by MS5 MPs directed against the President of the Chamber of Deputies, Laura Boldrini, in 2014. "Two deputies came up and covered me with insults. They were no longer able to control their violence. This is not possible in any place of work," Boldrini denounced. This prompted Corrado Augias, a famous Italian journalist, to compare the violence used by the M5S to fascism. The following day a militant MS5 activist burned books of Augias and uploaded the photos to his Facebook profile, because according to him "Augias offended the movement". The major drawback for the MS5 is lingering doubts on the party's ability to govern. Raggi's performance as mayor has so far been chaotic. This may explain why Grillo wants an election as soon as possible rather than give more time for his party to prove itself in local government. Down in the swamp: Silvio Berlusconi, Beppe Grillo, and Matteo Salvini formed the three poles opposing Matteo Renzi's high-stakes gamble for constitutional reform. Renzi's next moves could determine whether any of these parties ends up in government in a coalition that excludes the centre-left. Cartoon by Mikiel Galea As Muscat suggested (after speaking to his close ally), Renzi "has the energy and is still young enough to return at the highest levels"