Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/797847
maltatoday, SUNDAY, 12 MARCH 2017 11 MaltaToday Survey s, a year before election PN voters in 2013 PL voters in 2013 Switchers Non voters in 2013 PN voters in 2008 PL voters in 2008 4.2% 81.8% 11.2% 78.1% 7.8% 9.1% 48.1% 25% 19.2% 14.4% 19% 54.8% 11.8% 14.5% 68.1% 13.1% 84.2% 5.4 % 7.1% Present voting intentions of different categories of 2013 voters PN voters 2013 PL voters 2013 Switchers Non-Voters 2013 PN voters 2008 PL voters 2008 PL PN AD PD Patriots Others Not voting Don't know No reply 3.5% 73.7% 38.5% 7.1% 9.9% 80% 84% 7.2% 26.9% 19% 71.1% 3.1% 0.4% 0 0 2.4% 0.4% 0 0 1.3% 3.8% 0 0.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0 4.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.2% 7.8% 13.5% 42.8% 7% 6.7% 6% 7.2% 17.3% 21.4% 8.4% 6.7% 1.5% 2.5% 0 2.5% 1.8% 2.3% 40.2% 33.1% 12.7% 14% 0.6pp 0.3pp -0.3pp -0.6pp CHANGE OVER NOVEMBER 2016 Trust barometer: Who do you trust between Joseph Muscat and Simon Busuttil? Stagno Navarra on its media. It may also explain why the party courts potential candidates like Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando, Ian Castaldi Paris and Franco Debono, even if their presence may appear toxic for traditional PL voters. In fact through this shift from the PN, the PL may be compensating for losses among more traditional Labour voters, some of whom are finding a new home in Busuttil's Nationalist Party. The survey shows the percentage of PN voters now intent on voting PL doubling from 2% in November to 4% now. On the other hand the percentage of PL voters in 2008 switching to the PN has remained stable. In many ways these dynamics have been reflected in Labour's shift to the centre-right in its pro busi- ness appeal, and Busuttil's shift to the centre-left on a number of social issues. Labour holds more switchers but non- voters shifting to PN While both parties are trying to appeal to new converts from the opposing camp, switchers who voted PN in 2008 and PL in 2013 remain of strategic importance. The survey shows that while the number of switchers intent on voting PN has risen from 18% in November to 25% now, the percentage of switchers who would vote PL has also gone up from 29% to 39%. This suggests that switchers are increas- ingly making their mind and are now less likely to say that they will not be voting. In fact non-voters among this category have declined from 39% in November to 14% now. This also suggests that the PL has made more gains than the PN among this category in the past months. But while the PN is making limited gains among switchers, it is making substantial gains among another strategic category: non-voters in the 2013 election. In this category while only 7% will be voting Labour, 19% will be voting PN. This suggests that a number of PN voters in 2008 who abstained in the 2013 elec- tion have returned back to the party. The return of these voters to the PN may have a marked impact on PN-leaning districts, which saw a higher level of abstention than PL-leaning districts in the 2013 gen- eral election. 3% opt for third parties The survey shows no shift to small par- ties, with the share taken by third parties dropping by a percentage point since No- vember. This drop can be attributed to the sur- vey's margin of error which weighs heav- ily on the representation of third parties. For the first time the survey shows Mar- lene Farrugia's PD taking votes from the PL and from the PN, but these gains are made exclusively among switchers who had voted PN in 2008. The far right 'pa- triots' take nearly an equal number of votes from both parties as well as from non-voters in 2013. AD takes a fraction from the PN and non-voters while losing a third of its vote in 2013 to the PN. Methodology The survey was held between 1 March and 8 March. The results were weighed to reflect the age and gender balance of the population. 1,187 respondents were con- tacted. The survey was stopped when a quota sample of 700 completed question- naires. The survey has a margin of error of +/-3.7 points. While switchers intent on voting PN rose from 18% in November to 25%, switchers who would vote PL went up from 29% to 39%