Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/797847
maltatoday, SUNDAY, 12 MARCH 2017 10 MaltaToday Survey CONTINUED FROM PAGE 1 So now the survey shows the PL leading by four points, up by half a point from last month. The differ- ence is just outside the +/- 3.6 point mar- gin of error, which means that the differ- ence between the parties may range from a 0.4 lead for Labour to a more substantial 7.6 point lead. But the survey confirms inroads made by the PN and its leader among Labour voters in 2008, with Simon Busuttil emerging as the trusted choice of 5% of those who had voted for Alfred Sant's PL in 2008. It also shows 3% of these voters now intending to vote PN. But the survey also shows Muscat and Labour consolidating their position among switchers, that category of voters who switched from the PN to Labour in the 2013 election. While both parties are making gains among switchers amidst a sharp drop of undecided respondents in this strategic category, 27% of switchers will vote PN and 39% will vote PL. And while 48% of switchers trust Muscat more, only 25% trust Busuttil. Overall the survey still shows a favour- able swing for the PN, with 7% of PL voters in 2013 now switching to the Opposition, compared to 4% of PN voters in 2013 who have switched to Labour. This suggests that while the PN is making some gains, these are partly offset by Muscat's contin- ued ability to win over voters from the PN. But amidst a greater polarization, both political leaders have registered a small increase, with Muscat gaining 0.6 points and Busuttil gaining 0.3 points in the trust rankings. Support for third parties has also dropped by 1.7 points. For the first time the survey shows the newly formed anti-immigrant far-right patriot party registering nearly the same support as that registered by AD and Marlene Farrugia's Democratic Party. An extrapolation of the survey, when undecided respondents and those intent on not voting are not taken into account, would put the PL at 51%, the PN at 45.1%, AD at 1.6% and the PD and the Patriots at 0.9%. Muscat 5 points more popular than his party Both political leaders remain more pop- ular than their own party. But while Joseph Muscat's trust rating is five points higher than the support for his party, Busuttil's trust rating is two points higher than support for his party. This indicates that Labour has more space for future growth among that category of electors who prefer Muscat to Busuttil, but who are not committed with regard to voting intentions. But significantly, while among Labour voters Busuttil is slightly more popular than his party (8% of PL voters in 2013 say they trust him more than Muscat com- pared to 7% who say they will vote PN), Busuttil is slightly less popular than his party among switchers, 27% of whom say they will be voting PN compared to 25% who trust Busuttil. 7% of PL voters shifting to PN While Labour starts with this notable ad- vantage, which sees Muscat leading Busut- til by seven points, MaltaToday's survey confirms a shift in favour of the PN. While 3.5% of PL voters in 2013 say they will now vote PN, 7% of PL voters in the same election say they will vote PN. This would mean that while the PL is losing 12,062 votes to the PN, the PN is only los- ing 4,634 votes to the PL. Although this shift is considerable by Maltese standards, it is not enough to overturn Labour's 35,000-vote majority. Basically Labour starts the election with an advantage which can only be over- turned by a greater shift than the one sug- gested in this survey. Moreover, when non-voters and unde- cided voters are taken into consideration, while the PN retains 84% of its votes, the PL retains only 74% of its votes. This sug- gests that the PN has a greater ability to retain 2013 voters than the PL. But the difference is less marked when it comes to Busuttil's and Muscat's trust in their respective camps. While Busuttil is trusted by 82% of PN voters in 2013, Mus- cat is trusted by 78% among PL voters in the same election. Of significant importance is the fact that while only 4% of PN voters in 2013 will not be voting, non-voters increase to 8% among PL voters in the same election. If this pattern is confirmed in an actual elec- tion, 13,067 Labour voters and 5,561 PN voters would be staying home, giving the PN the opportunity to further decrease the gap between the two parties. The PN's chances depend on whether these voters will stick to their guns or whether they will be lured back by Labour. Labour would be facing even greater diffi- culties if some of these voters end up vot- ing PN. New Labourites, new Nationalists Of strategic importance for Labour is its continued ability to attract National- ist voters. The survey shows the party still retaining 10% of PN voters in the 2008 general election. Moreover 14% of this category trust Muscat more than Busuttil. And Labour also attracts nearly 4% of PN voters in the 2013 general election. This explains why Labour continuously uses Nationalist-friendly faces like Karl Labour leads by four poi nt MaltaToday Survey shows PL losing 7% of its 2013 votes to PN and PN losing 4% of its 2013 votes to PL An extrapolation, removing the undecided and those intent on not voting, would put the PL at 51%, PN at 45.1%, AD at 1.6% and the PD and the Patriots at 0.9% JAMES DEBONO 2.6pp 2.1pp -1pp -0.5pp 0.8pp -1pp -1.4pp -4.6pp 3.1pp CHANGE OVER NOVEMBER 2016 1.1% 0.8% 0.8% 0 8.6% 10.6% 12.5% AD PD Patriots Others Not voting Don't know No reply 34.8% 30.8% PL PN For which political party would you vote if an election were held tomorrow? The PL may be compensating for losses among more traditional Labour voters, some of whom are finding a new home in Busuttil's Nationalist Party. The survey shows the percentage of PN voters now intent on voting PL doubling from 2% in November to 4% now