Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/821520
3 maltatoday, TUESDAY, 9 MAY 2017 News How the surveys compare James Debono compares the MaltaToday and Malta Independent surveys and finds that both indicate an absolute majority for Labour when "don't knows" are removed from the equation REMOVING the 'don't knows' sector from the surveys about the electoral situation con- ducted by MaltaToday and the Independent on Sunday, translates into an absolute majority for the Labour Party. While the MT survey shows Labour with a majority of 52%, the Independent puts that majority at 53%. Both surveys agree on AD's 0.6% result. And while MT puts the PN at 47%, the Independ- ent puts it at 46%. MaltaToday is tradition- ally wary of extrapolations as these are based on the as- sumption that 'don't knows' will split equally between the parties. Historically this has often been the case although pollsters recall that 1996 was an exception. In that particular election the undecided tilted in favour of Sant's Labour party, thus upsetting predictions of a landslide for the PN. If don't knows tilt in favour of any particular party, the end result will be different from the extrapolated one. While the margin of error for both surveys is slightly less than four points when all respondents are included, the margin of error increases to around +/-5 because the extrapolation includes a re- duced sample. This means that the results of the two surveys fall within their margin of error. Moreo- ver both surveys allow for the possibility of a small PN ma- jority. While the Independ- ent survey puts the PN at an- ything between 41% and 51%, the MaltaToday survey puts the PN at between 42% and 52%. On the other hand the Independent survey would put Labour at anything be- tween 48% and 58% while MaltaToday's survey puts it at between 47% and 57%. The surveys only diverge marginally with regard to trust rating. After removing the don't knows Muscat is trusted by 47% in MaltaTo- day's survey and by 48% in the Independent's survey. On the other hand while Busuttil is trusted by 41% in the Mal- taToday survey he is trusted by 39% in the Independent's survey. All these differences fall within the margin of er- ror of the two surveys. Another notable difference, which could have impacted on the results of the surveys, is that while the MaltaTo- day survey was held between Tuesday, 2 May and Friday, 5 May, the Independent survey was held between 25 April and 3 May. This means that the latest Independent survey did not factor in the decision by the inquiring magistrate that the "necessary prerequi- sites exist" for a new magis- terial inquiry into allegations of kickbacks made to the PM's chief of staff, Keith Schembri. As things stand both sur- veys indicate that Labour is heading towards a majority of votes, with the added ad- vantage of Muscat enjoying greater trust than Busuttil. But the undecided – who amount to 23% of respond- ents in MaltaToday's survey – can still change the outcome of the election if they tilt to- wards the PN. Which party will you be voting for on June 3? MT Independent PL 51.8 53.1 PN-PD 47.4 46 AD 0.6 0.6 Others 0.3 0.4 Which leader do you trust most? Joseph Muscat 46.8 48.1 Simon Busuttil 41.3 38.5 None 11.9 13.2 Comparing MT surveys with Independent survey after removing don't knows and no votes PORTOMASOLIVE.COM REGISTER NOW 1 2 3 Register your personal account JOIN DEPOSIT EARN CASHBACK Place your deposit, play & participate in our promotions You're always a winner at Portomaso Live You're always a winner