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MT 14 May 2017

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10 CONTINUED FROM PAGE 1 This explains why the margin between the two parties has remained constant over the past months, despite significant PN gains among other categories such as switchers, a small but significant segment of traditional Labour voters, and non-voters in 2013. In fact the survey shows 6.3% of Labour voters in 2013 shifting to the PN list, up from 5% last week. But this is partly compensated by a 3% shift of PN voters to the PL, up from 1% last week. In actual figures this would translate in the PL losing some 10,500 votes to the PN and the PN losing circa 3,800 votes to the PL over the 2013 election figures. The percentage of non-voters in 2013 now shifting to the PN has also increased by six points over last week, while new voters still tilt towards the PL. The PN also gains eight points among switchers who voted PN in 2008 and PL in 2013. This category is now evenly split between the two parties. MaltaToday's latest survey was carried out among 750 respondents contacted between Monday and Thursday. The survey has a margin of error of +/-3.6 points. This means that the difference between the two parties still lies within this margin, even if Labour's margin has been confirmed in the past three successive surveys. When the margin of er- ror is taken into account its result could range from 33.4% to 40.6% for the PN, and Labour could range from 37.3% and 44.5%. This means that it is still possible that the PN could be in the lead. The survey still shows the Greens below the 1-point mark at 0.6%. The overall per- centage of respondents who would vote for PD candidates on the PN list has now dou- bled from 1% last week to 2%. These amount to 6% of current PN voters, up from 4% last week. But the PD only takes a minimal 0.3% share of the PL's vote of 2013, including 2.1% of switchers. On the other hand AD is no long- er taking any votes from the PN but takes 0.8% from Labour's 2013 vote base. Muscat retains 5-point lead Overall when asked who of the two leaders they trust most, 38.4% chose Busuttil while 43.7% chose Muscat. Compared to last week Busuttil has gained 2.1 points while Muscat has gained 2.7 points. While gaining a bit less than Muscat, the PN leader now registers his highest ever trust rating since being elect- ed PN leader. Muscat's trust rating is now equivalent to what it was in January 2015. Among Labour voters in 2013, Muscat has seen his trust rating increase from 73.7% before the start of the election campaign to 78.8% during the first week of the campaign to 85% in the second week. This is another sign of retrenchment among Labour voters. On the other hand Busuttil's trust rating among PN voters in 2013 has practically remained the same. The survey now shows both leaders being trusted by 85% and 86% of their respective party's voters in 2013. Compared to last week the percentage of Labour voters in 2013 who trust neither of the two leaders has dropped from 8% of its 2013 voters last week to 5% this week. The percentage of Labour voters in 2013 who are undecided on whom to trust has also declined from 5% to 3%. This suggests that Muscat has continued to consolidate his position in the Labour cohort. But significantly 7.2% of PL voters in 2013, including 38% of switchers and 4% of PL vot- ers in 2008, trust Busuttil more than Muscat. This suggests that Busuttil has consolidated his appeal among a segment of Labour vot- ers. In fact the percentage of switchers who trust him more than Muscat has increased from 25% last week to 38% now. But Muscat also appeals to a segment of PN voters of 2013, 4% of whom trust him more than Busuttil. This confirms Muscat's continued ability to attract a portion of Na- tionalist voters. PL leads by 4 points As regards voting intentions the survey shows the PN increasing its support by 2.8 points over last week points and Labour by 3.6 points. The survey shows a 4-point drop in undecided voters and a 2-point drop in non-voters. But significantly when compared to last week, while the percentage of PN voters who are now undecided has shot up from 7.1% to 8.4%, the percentage of PL voters has decreased from 15.3% to 8.8%. This suggests that the PN has considerable room to grow if it recovers undecided 2013 voters. The survey confirms inroads made by the PN among Labour voters in the last election. In fact the percentage of PL voters shifting to the PN-PD alliance has increased from 5.3% last week to 6.3% now. But the percentage of PN voters who will now vote PL has also increased from 0.9% in last week's survey to 2.9% now. This suggests that the PN has not entirely blocked the haemorrhage of votes to the PL, as suggested by last week's survey. The survey also suggests that switchers are finally making up their mind, with 34% choosing the PN and 34% choosing the PL. While Labour has retained the same per- centage as last week the PN has registered a 13-point increase in support in this strategic category of voters. Only 6% of switchers are intent on not voting while 21% are undecid- ed. The percentage of undecided switchers has dropped by 12 points over last week. The survey also confirms the existence of a new category of switchers, those who have voted Labour in 2008 and who have now switched to the PN. These amount to 3% of PL voters in the 2008 general election, the same amount as last week. maltatoday, SUNDAY, 14 MAY 2017 MaltaToday Survey +3.61pp +2.8pp 0.2pp n/c -1.7pp -3.5pp -1.3pp CHANGE SINCE 7 MAY 2017 • *PD's vote included in PN vote 0.6% 0.2% 3% 11.9% 6.4% AD Patriots Not voting Don't know No reply 40.9% 37% PL PN* For which political party would you vote if an election were held tomorrow? Labour electorate retrenches, switchers evenly distributed On the campaign trail: Simon Busuttil has made inroads with the switcher vote over the past weeks PHOTO: JAMES BIANCHI

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