MaltaToday previous editions

MT 21 May 2017

Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/826629

Contents of this Issue

Navigation

Page 9 of 71

10 CONTINUED FROM PAGE 1 When losses to abstention and flows be- tween the two parties are taken into ac- count the PN is gaining 6,239 votes over 2013 and the PL losing 9,545 votes. This suggests that while the PN is gaining more votes than the PL, the shift is not enough to overturn Labour's majority. But these figures do not factor in the in- flux of non-voters in previous elections, new voters and respondents who still claim to be still undecided. The survey shows 10% of PL voters in 2013 still undecided, up from 9% last week. This category is mainly composed of switchers who voted PN in 2008 and PL in 2013. In this category 29% are un- decided compared to only 5% of PL voters in 2008. Only 5% of PN voters in 2013 are undecided. This suggests that undecided switchers may have a determining role on June 3. The survey also shows 5% of PN voters in 2013 refusing to reply to the question on voting intentions. Only 0.2% of PL voters said the same in 2013. While the PL is still enjoying a lead among switchers (33.3%), when combin- ing the switchers' vote for the PD with the PN's, it shows the coalition enjoying a lead among switchers. The survey only gives an indication of how non-voters and new voters will be voting on June 3 because the sample of these two strategic cohorts is too small. But the survey confirms a PN advantage among non-voters in 2013 registered in previous surveys. Busuttil also enjoys a strong trust lead among this group. This suggests that the PN is recovering former voters who reg- istered their protest by not voting in the 2013 general election. As regards new voters, the survey suggests a high level of indecision in the group, 39% of whom re- plied "don't know" to the question on vot- ing intentions. While the survey shows a slight lead for the PN in this group, contrary to the trend in previous surveys, it also shows Muscat as the most trusted leader in the same group. MaltaToday's latest survey was carried out among 750 respondents contacted between Monday and Thursday. The dif- ference between the two main parties still lies within this margin. This means that it is still possible that the PN could be in the lead even if Labour's lead has been con- sistent at between three and four points in four consecutive surveys. The survey still shows the Greens below the one-point mark at 0.6%. The overall percentage of respondents who would vote for PD candidates on the PN list stands at only 1.4%, down from 2% last week. The PD also attracts 4% of switch- ers to the coalition, up from 2% last week. Muscat retains 5-point lead Overall when asked who of the two lead- ers they trust most, 39.2% chose Busuttil while 43.9% chose Muscat. Compared to last week Busuttil has gained 0.8 points while Muscat has gained 0.2 points. The PN leader registers his highest ever trust rating since being elected PN leader. Mus- cat's trust rating is slightly higher than it was in January 2015. Among Labour voters in 2013, Muscat has seen his trust rating rise from 73.7% before the start of the election campaign to 78.8% during the first week, to 85% in the second week and third week of the campaign. This suggests that Labour vot- ers have rallied behind the party leader as the campaign progressed. On the other hand Busuttil's trust rat- ing among PN voters in 2013 has practi- cally remained the same during the first two weeks and has gained a point over last week. The survey now shows Muscat trusted by 85% of PL voters in 2013 and Busuttil by 87% of PN voters in 2013. The percentage of Labour voters in 2013 who trust neither of the two leaders re- mains at 5% as it was last week. Only 3% of PN voters in 2013 trust neither leader. 4% of PL voters are undecided on whom to trust between the two leaders, compared to 6% of PN voters. Significantly 6.4% of PL voters in 2013, down from 7.2% last week, trust Busut- til more than Muscat. On the other hand 3.8% of PN voters in 2013 trust Muscat more than Busuttil, down from 4.4% last week. This suggests that both leaders have managed to appeal beyond the boundaries of their respective 2013 cohorts. Over the past week both leaders have lost points among switchers. But while Muscat has lost five points, Busuttil has lost three. Both leaders now enjoy the trust of 35% of switchers. The percentage of undecided among this category has grown by nearly eight points. In this week's survey only 2% of PL vot- ers in the 2008 general election trust the PN leader more than Muscat, down from 4% last week. PL leads by 4 points As regards voting intentions the survey shows the PN losing 0.4 points and Labour losing 0.7 points. The survey shows a two- point increase in 'don't knows' and 'no re- plies' combined. But the percentage of no replies is higher among PN voters in 2013. The survey confirms inroads made by the PN among Labour voters in the last elec- tion. The percentage of PL voters shift- ing to the PN-PD alliance has decreased slightly from 6.3% to 5.7% now. This in- cludes 0.8% of PL voters who will be vot- ing for the PD. Two weeks ago 5.3% of PL voters in 2013 were shifting to the PN. The percentage of PN voters who will now vote PL has also slightly decreased from 2.9% to 1.9% but this figure remains higher than the 0.9% registered in the first week of the campaign. This suggests that the PN has not entirely blocked the haem- orrhage of votes to the PL. The survey also suggests switchers mak- ing up their mind, with 35.3% (up from 34% last week) choosing the PN and 33% (down from 34% last week) choosing the PL. The PN's result in this category in- cludes 4% of switchers who will be voting for the Democratic Party. The number of switchers intent on not voting has now dropped to 0% from 6% of switchers last week but 29% remain unde- cided (up from 21% last month week). While the PN has consolidated its posi- tion among switchers, only 1% of PL vot- ers in 2008 will now opt for the PN, a drop from 3% last week. This suggests that the PN's concerted campaign to attract tradi- tional Labour voters may have hit a snag. Of strategic importance is the PN's ad- vantage among non-voters in the 2013 general election. Among this category, while 30% will vote PN or PD (5 points up from last week), 15% (up from 8% last maltatoday, SUNDAY, 21 MAY 2017 MaltaToday Survey JAMES DEBONO -0.7pp -0.4pp n/c -0.2pp -0.6pp 1.1pp 0.8pp CHANGE SINCE 14 MAY 2017 • *PD's vote included in PN vote 0.6% 0 2.4% 13% 7.2% AD Patriots Not voting Don't know No reply 40.2% 36.6% PL PN* For which political party would you vote if an election were held tomorrow? PD could be key to PN taking switchers' vote Godfrey Farrugia (centre) at a PN rally: is the Democratic Party the key to the switcher vote that chose Labour in 2013 after having voted for the PN in 2008? PHOTO: JAMES BIANCHI

Articles in this issue

Archives of this issue

view archives of MaltaToday previous editions - MT 21 May 2017