Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/832512
maltatoday, SUNDAY, 4 JUNE 2017 11 News from the judicial front, he may well face a snowball ef- fect, with his trust waning. He will probably realise that he will ignore the message only at his own peril and he may have cold feet on reappointing Mizzi and Schem- bri. But he may also choose to present his victory as one against all odds, blaming the "establishment" and the media for any vote losses. Busuttil In this scenario Busuttil is likely to stay on as PN lead- er. He would have been defeated but not vanquished. He will also be leading a stronger opposition in parlia- ment. But one would expect some soul searching in the party. The party may well feel that having halved the gap, Busuttil can lead the party to an election victory in 2022. Busuttil will also have more time to present a credible alternative to Muscat's government. Much depends on whether the election will bring with it a generational change in the PN group, endowing Busut- til with a more convincing front bench than the present one. A tight win for Labour Labour wins by fewer than 10,000 votes. This would mean that the gap between the parties has been cut by two thirds, signifying a massive swing from Labour to the PN but yet not enough to overturn the 2013 victory Muscat The PM will be increasingly vulnerable and will com- mand a smaller parliamentary majority. This may well be a Pyrrhic victory for Muscat who probably aimed for a landslide. Labour voters will be disappointed and blame Muscat for throwing away his super-majority simply to keep his friends close to him. This could turn Muscat into a lame duck, especially if pending magis- terial inquiries find enough evidence for the police to proceed against Keith Schembri. In such a scenario even if absolved from the Egrant allegations, Muscat may still be dragged down by al- legations against Schembri. He may become increas- ingly embittered and resentful, especially when faced by a re-energised and stronger opposition still led by Simon Busuttil. But Muscat may also react by heeding the message and start a new chapter after realising that bad governance is a vote losing issue. The first casualties may well be Keith Schembri and Konrad Mizzi. Competition will grow for the succes- sion as the party starts having doubts on Muscat's abil- ity to steer it again to victory in 2022. Much depends on whether the Labour party recovers its autonomy from Muscat. Busuttil Busuttil will surely remain at the helm of the PN after being acclaimed for reversing the party's for- tunes after just four years at the helm. The party will build on the momentum of the result. The election of Marlene or Godfrey Farrugia in the next parliament would further vindicate Busuttil's coalition strategy. The Opposition leader will grow in stature and will be perceived as a likely contender for becoming Prime Minister in 2022. If Muscat succumbs to a siege men- tality, of which he has shown signs during the cam- paign, the PN will thrive in building new alliances, as was the case in the 1981 to 1987 period. The PN will also have the opportunity of building a new dynamic frontbench, possibly including the Democratic Party and individuals who supported the party in the 2017 campaign. The only snag for the party would be if the judicial inquiries prompted by the Oopposition lead to a dead end. A narrow PN victory This would mean an incredible swing of more than 16,000 votes from the PL to the PN. Such an electoral earthquake is unprecedented in pre-2013 Maltese history Muscat He would have squandered the largest majority in Maltese history since Independence and would have no choice but to resign as he has already commit- ted himself to do. If he reneges on such a promise he would also risk a party rebellion as he would be blamed for inflicting damage to his party by not tak- ing action against Mizzi and Keith. But Muscat may well decide to stay on as MP and, if he is cleared by the Egrant inquiry, Muscat may still contemplate a comeback, especially if the new government faces in- stability. Busuttil He would have achieved a remarkable feat but would find himself leading the country with a small, possibly one-seat majority, as was the case in 1987 when the party won by 4,000 votes. But Busuttil may find him- self unprepared for governing the country, after not having enough time to renew his party in Opposition. Still, after performing the most improbable feat in electoral history, his hand would be strengthened. He will surely face contradictory pressures from the Nationalist electorate, some expecting a return to the pre-2013 days and others expecting him to fully honour his good governance pledges. With either Marlene Farrugia or Godfrey Farrugia as representa- tives of the Democratic Party in a one-seat majority government, there would be a major test for Busuttil's ability to reconcile different views, especially if pres- sures to keep the economy booming conflict with en- vironmental considerations. jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt 6 Qormi, Siggiewi, Luqa QUOTA Name Party 1 2 3 XUEREB Saviour AB _____________________________ GALEA Simon AD _____________________________ BORG DUCA Graziella MPM _____________________________ ABELA Robert PL _____________________________ BORG Ian PL _____________________________ CUTAJAR Rosianne PL _____________________________ GALDES Roderick PL _____________________________ GULIA Gavin PL _____________________________ SCHEMBRI Silvio PL _____________________________ ABELA Amanda PN _____________________________ AGIUS Monique PN _____________________________ AQUILINA Karol PN _____________________________ CALLUS Ryan PN _____________________________ CAMILLERI SCHEMBRI Elaine PN _____________________________ CASSAR Kevin PN _____________________________ FARRUGIA Godfrey PN _____________________________ MICALLEF Peter PN _____________________________ MUSCAT George PN _____________________________ PSAILA ZAMMIT Alessia PN _____________________________ PULI Clyde PN _____________________________ 5 Birzebbugia, Kirkop, Imqabba, Hal Farrug, Qrendi, Safi, Zurrieq, Bubaqra QUOTA Name Party 1 2 3 ALOISIO Pascal AD _____________________________ BORG Simon MPM _____________________________ FERRIGGI Johann MPM _____________________________ BEDINGFIELD Glenn PL _____________________________ BONNICI Owen PL _____________________________ BUSUTTIL Luciano PL _____________________________ CACHIA Roderick PL _____________________________ CALLEJA Mario PL _____________________________ CUTAJAR Joseph PL _____________________________ FARRUGIA Joe PL _____________________________ FARRUGIA PORTELLI Julia PL _____________________________ MICALLEF Edric PL _____________________________ MUSCAT Joseph PL _____________________________ MUSCAT Sebastian [Bastjan] PL _____________________________ SAMMUT Rita PL _____________________________ STIVALA Carlo PL _____________________________ ZRINZO AZZOPARDI Stefan PL _____________________________ BEZZINA Anthony [Toni] PN _____________________________ CAUCHI Shirley PN _____________________________ FARRUGIA Marlene PN _____________________________ GALEA Noel PN _____________________________ REFALO Nick PN _____________________________ RIZZO NAUDI Mario PN _____________________________ SCHIAVONE Hermann PN _____________________________ VELLA Mary Grace PN _____________________________ VELLA Norman PN _____________________________ ZAMMIT Stanley PN _____________________________ QUOTA Name Party 1 2 3 CACOPARDO Carmel AD _____________________________ BATTISTINO Henry MPM _____________________________ FALZON Desmond MPM _____________________________ FLORIAN Stephen MPM _____________________________ SCICLUNA Norman MPM _____________________________ BONELLO Charles PL _____________________________ BUONTEMPO Stefan PL _____________________________ CAMILLERI Byron PL _____________________________ CILIA Joe PL _____________________________ ELLUL Andy [Andrew] PL _____________________________ FEARNE Chris PL _____________________________ GRECH Etienne PL _____________________________ GRIMA Dominic PL _____________________________ MIZZI Konrad PL _____________________________ PARNIS Silvio PL _____________________________ SAMMUT Rita PL _____________________________ AZZOPARDI Jason PN _____________________________ BARTOLO Ivan PN _____________________________ BONAVIA Lawrence PN _____________________________ COMODINI CACHIA Therese PN _____________________________ FARRUGIA Catherine PN _____________________________ GALEA Caroline PN _____________________________ MICALLEF PICCIONE Aaron PN _____________________________ SAMMUT Mark PN _____________________________ SCIBERRAS Liam PN _____________________________ Fgura (part of), Gudja, Paola, Santa Lucija, Tarxien 4 scenarios: Who stays, who goes?