Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/832512
25 maltatoday, SUNDAY, 4 JUNE 2017 Opinion state secrets by reminding you all how these have always (and consistently throughout this campaign, too), given Joseph Muscat significantly better results... not only when compared to Simon Busuttil, but even against his own party. Yet when it came to organising its campaign, the PN decided to hinge everything on the issue of who, between Joseph Muscat and Simon Busuttil, is more credible in the eyes of the public. We were presented with very specific claims – eg, that Michelle Muscat is the ultimate beneficiary owner of Egrant; that a company belonging to Muscat was involved in laundering money for the Azerbaijani government, etc – and expected to take them all on trust... to form our opinion on the basis of whom we 'believe' more. Do I really need to point out the fly in the ointment? 'Trust' and 'belief ' are what Joseph Muscat happens to enjoy more of (and by the bucketful, too) than Simon Busuttil. And before you all rush to point fingers and accuse me of being 'on the take', etc... please note I'm not saying this because I myself find one more trustworthy or believable than the other. Quite frankly, I think you'd have to be nuts to trust either at this stage. I am saying this because it is TRUE... demonstrably true... and there is a decade's worth of polls and surveys to prove it. Besides: I am also looking at this purely from a party-political electoral strategy point of view. Was it a clever strategy to build a campaign on a matter of trust, when there is so much evidence telling you that a huge majority actually places more trust in Muscat than in Busuttil? This was the situation at the start of the campaign five weeks ago. And incredibly, up until the moment of writing, the original Egrant allegation – i.e., the one that would land Muscat behind bars for up to 18 years, if confirmed – still remains at the same level of 'faith'. If you're a good, dutiful Nationalist you will believe Muscat is guilty. If you're a good, dutiful Labourite, you will believe he is innocent. I've already pointed out the immediate flaw in the argument. 'Good dutiful Labourites' are in greater supply than their Nationalist counterparts (always, let me repeat, on the basis of our polls). A further difficulty is that some of us out here can't be made to fit into either category. I for one do not take my orders regarding what to 'believe' from a political party. And I find it little short of astounding that anyone in his/her right mind would even expect me to for half a second. But there is another, even more insidious problem than that. Let us for argument's sake accept the view that the corruption allegations have mortally wounded Muscat's previously sky-high trust ratings. Let us imagine – and to be fair, it might not even be imagination; no one's even voted yet, and literally anything can happen – that at this level, the strategy worked to perfection. The Nationalists entered this campaign determined to annihilate Joseph Muscat's personal and political credibility once and for all... and succeeded. How, exactly, does that translate into automatic support for the Nationalist Party? The answer to this one takes us back to the original distinction between 'election' and 'referendum'. If this really were a referendum, where you step into the ballot box and tick either 'INNOCENT' or 'GUILTY' under Joseph Muscat's face... then yes. To be perfectly frank, under those circumstances it would indeed be a winning strategy. Those are not the circumstances, however. The choice facing the electorate is not merely to retain or get rid of Joseph Muscat. It is also a question of what to replace Labour with. And I have to say I find it truly remarkable – shocking, almost – that nobody within the PN's campaign strategy department ever paused to consider the possible consequences of allowing unsubstantiated allegations to remain unsubstantiated for five whole weeks. What if the Egrant inquiry establishes that... no, actually, Egrant does not belong to Michelle Muscat after all? Like I said earlier, I don't have powers of prophecy... who knows what the magistrate will conclude? But I can easily foresee serious trouble if that happens. The trouble will become almost unthinkable if that happens after Simon Busuttil won the election on the basis of that claim. But even if Muscat is PM (as polls indicate will be the case)... what conclusions would we be left to draw about the PN's credibility then? In all honesty, I think it's time we stepped out of our little perspective bubbles here, and start looking at the real picture. That might include confronting some ugly facts you'd much rather didn't exist. Nationalists may have to confront the possibility that their party really did, after all, concoct the mother of all political frame-ups. Labourites may have to accept that their beloved Joseph Muscat may not, after all, be the blue- eyed angel they've all cranked him up to be... and, much more beside, that he may even have to go to jail. Personally, I do not exclude either of those scenarios myself. Neither will come as a shock to me, though I must say I would be bitterly disappointed by both. And yes, by the time you read this, I may have egg dripping all over my own face. Our polls are not infallible; the PN might still win. My entire perspective may have to be revised, too: and with it, the entire gist of this article. But then again... it will not be this election to decide the innocence or guilt or either Joseph Muscat or Simon Busuttil. We will not find out who lied and who told the truth on the basis of how many people voted for which candidate. We will know these things – if ever at all – on the basis of magisterial inquiries that will be concluded in the coming weeks. What the election result will tell us, however, is who between those two party leaders was more 'believed' as of 3 June. And if you don't like the answer we'll be getting today... well, the obvious question to ask yourself is: whose bright idea was it to take this fight to the level of 'belief ' in the first place? (Hint: sure as heck wasn't mine...) Was it a clever strategy to build a campaign on a matter of trust, when there is so much evidence telling you that a huge majority actually places more trust in Muscat than in Busuttil? 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