Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/943656
maltatoday SUNDAY 18 FEBRUARY 2018 9 News A system to stop M5S? The voting system approved last October ensures that 64% of seats will be elected by proportional representation, while the rest will come from winner-takes-all districts. The election will be probably decided in the first-past-the post seats. The system was designed to favour coalitions on both the left and the right, which may stand a better chance in a winner-takes-all scenario, over the solitary M5S which has no allies. But the failure of the PD to form a wide coalition means that only the centre-right is reaping the benefits of the new electoral law. It would still need 40% of the vote to have a chance of a parliamentary majority.The centre-right is strongest in the industrial north, and will battle with M5S in the poorer south where the anti-system party is stronger. Latest polls Coalition Centre Right 37.5% 5 Star Movement 27.6% Centre Left 27.2% Free and Equal 6% Seat estimates Centre-Right 295 Centre Left 151 Five Star Movement 147 (Seats required for overall majority 316) M5S is set to become the largest party with 27%-29% of the vote, but will probably not be able to form a government. Berlusconi's Forza Italia is at 16-18% in coalition with the Northern League (13%), Brothers of Italy (5%) and centrist 'Us with Italy' (3%). But the coalition needs to get closer to 40% to secure an outright victory. On the left, Renzi's centre- left alliance should manage a combined 26-28%. Polls show that 38% of voters are undecided. If these swing to M5S as they did in regional elections in Rome in 2016, we could be in for a surprise. The respectable face of M5S? Luigi Di Maio. The election is a three-way race between his party, the centre-right coalition led by media mogul Silvio Berlusconi, and the centre-left coalition led by Matteo Renzi year in power, followed by another 400,000 during the rest of his five-year adminis- tration. Luigi di Maio advocates a citizenship income for all, conditional on retraining and a minimum pension of €780. Matteo Renzi's main pledge is to increase the minimum wage and to raise the budget deficit to 3% of GDP so as to cut taxes and increase invest- ment. Who will actually govern? Short of an outright victory of the centre-right, which may be within reach if the Berlusconi-led coalition gets closer to the 40% mark, the most likely outcome could be a coalition of the two main- stream parties: Forza Italia and the Democratic Party, in what could be a replica of Germany's grand coalition. Aaron Farrugia considers this to be the most likely out- come. "With no party likely to achieve an overall major- ity, it is expected that a new coalition government will be formed, which will require time consuming and unpre- dictable negotiations as we have seen most recently in Germany." Arnold Cassola also sees the prospect of a grand coalition between Renzi and Berlusconi as the most likely scenario. "Since Berlusconi has just declared that his party would not govern with M5S, the post-election scenario could well see the centre-right coa- lition trying to negotiate with Matteo Renzi's decimated PD for a centre-right-PD coali- tion. Having already expe- rienced how unscrupulous Renzi can be in order to get to power, I would not exclude that he would negotiate, but this, I believe, would further split the PD." Yet in the unlikely scenario that the M5S single-handedly manages to get more votes than the other two coalitions, the Italian President will have to ask Di Maio to form a gov- ernment. This may raise the pros- pect of a populist coalition between M5S which is allied to the anti-EU UK Independ- ence Party in the European Parliament with the North- ern League. An analysis by VoteWatch indicates that this potential coalition "is likely to pursue a more confrontation- al stance on Eurozone reform and strengthen ties between Rome and Moscow." The impact on Malta The election of a govern- ment harbouring the anti- immigrant Northern League may well spell disaster for Malta, re-opening the im- migration floodgates, as Italy reverts to its past reluctance to accept migrants rescued in Malta's vicinity. "My strong belief is that Muscat and Renzi, who are two of a kind, had a personal agreement that bypassed both the Italian and the Maltese parliaments, with regards to migrant survivors in the Med- iterranean, whereby Italy took all on board," says Arnold Cassola. Although Italy's decision to take all migrants rescued in the central Mediterranean route precedes Renzi's gov- ernment, the friendship be- tween Muscat and Renzi was underlined by two visits by the Italian leader to affirm his political support for Mus- cat, first before the 2014 MEP elections and on the eve of the 2017 general election. But with Matteo Salvini be- coming part of a future poten- tial Italian government this may change. "One can expect Salvini's strong and vulgar rhetoric about Malta having to take in immigrants to be translated into concrete facts." Yet there was a time when the Northern League wel- comed Muscat's strong mi- gration stance. In August 2013 the party's newspaper La Padania praised Muscat's tenacious stance to refuse en- try to a tanker carrying 102 migrants rescued at sea in the Libyan search and rescue re- gion. Parliamentary secretary Aaron Farrugia is more opti- mistic, noting that common interests are likely to prevail irrespective of who wins. "The only prediction I am willing to make is that re- gardless of the eventual out- come Malta and Italy's strong special relationship will be unaffected." This is because besides being Malta's nearest neighbour, "Italy is amongst our strongest allies in Europe." The minister who faced the Lega As Malta's home affairs minister under the Gonzi administration, Carmelo Mifsud Bonnici had a direct experience of dealing with a counterpart hailing from the Northern League – Roberto Maroni, a moderate com- pared to Salvini. During that time Malta and Italy repeatedly squabbled over responsibility of mi- grants rescued in the vicinity of Malta and Lampedusa. Contacted by MaltaToday, Mifsud Bonnici described the situation as one which was "full of intense political ten- sion". Mifsud Bonnici, now the Opposition's spokesperson for foreign affairs, recognises that "the decision taken by the Italian government led by the Democratic Party", through which Italy is taking responsi- bility for "all persons request- ing assistance and who were rescued around us" has led to "greater stability". Yet Mifsud Bonnici antici- pates a radical change if the Northern League is re-elected to government in an alliance led by Silvio Berlusconi, es- pecially if the hawkish anti- immigrant party is given back the Home Affairs Ministry as was the case when Mifsud Bonnici was minister. "This will represent a big challenge for Malta… The only way forward is for Mal- ta and Italy to immediately tackle this issue by striking a deal which anticipates future problems. In the absence of a clear deal, the future would be beset with difficulties, prob- lems and complications." Mifsud Bonnici augurs that politicians learn from past mistakes and open their eyes. The fact that Malta and Italy remain "very close to each other with regards to Euro- pean and Mediterranean poli- cies," could help in avoiding past mistakes. jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt Not happy at all: former Italy PM Matteo Renzi's Democratic Party leads the centre- left coalition, but former colleagues unimpressed with his style have not joined him, and are now polling 6% with their 'Free And Equal' grouping