Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/946236
11 voters would be hoping that a strong vote for their party would convince Muscat to stay on, in reality it would give their leader more peace of mind to leave: any losses would make it harder for Labour to have an orderly transi- tion in a party molded in Muscat's image. Moreover, Muscat needs a strong affirmation to be in a posi- tion to condition the succession to his leadership. If his former One News colleague and now MEP Miriam Dalli – perceived to be close to Muscat – emerges as a frontrunner in the MEP elections, she could build on the momentum gained at the polls to galvanise support among Labour delegates and members who would elect the next Labour leader. A woman at the helm of Labour could well be the next logical step for Labour's 'progressive' revolution. Whether or not the former Labour leader and MEP Alfred Sant pips her at the 2019 polls, could be a factor in how Muscat reshuffles his card. What if losses to the PN affect Muscat's decision? Such a scenar- io may well galvanise the chances of another candidate who can be seen as the representative of change, someone least connect- ed to the Castille clique. Deputy prime minister and health minis- ter Chris Fearne may well become that agent of change. With him, a major incognito are the futures of minister Konrad Mizzi and Mus- cat's chief-of-staff. Would Mizzi stay on with Fearne as leader, es- pecially knowing the political dif- ferences between both fourth dis- trict rivals? Muscat may also interpret an outstanding victory in the 2019 elections as a sign from voters that they want him to stay on. But if the PN does gain ground in any substantial way, Muscat may well interpret this a sign that the party needs him more than ever and that he can't afford to leave his party orphaned. It is clear that it was never Mus- cat's plan to depart in a moment of difficulty. This is why Muscat cannot afford to see the PN gain- ing traction in next year's elec- tion. It would be easier for a new leader, especially one perceived to be a Muscat loyalist, to face a van- quished PN than a resurgent Op- position. Delia's survival at stake For the PN to narrow the gap, Delia has to gain ground among voters who voted Labour in 2017, making it vital for him to win over moderates, floaters and some tra- ditional Labour voters. With re- gard to retaining the third seat that was clinched by luck in 2014, without increasing the PN's vote share, that may be very hard. Through his latest antics, vet- eran MEP David Casa may have strengthened his position among those who doubt Delia's creden- tials and want the party to carry on with Simon Busuttil's legacy. Retaining these voters is vital for Delia. Yet it is doubtful whether Casa is eating into Labour's share of the vote or into leading PN MEP Roberta Metsola's share in the re- stricted PN vote. Casa may well be fighting for his own political future in a party which may be turning its back on Busuttil's legacy. Whether newcomer Frank Psaila can present himself as the PN can- didate who appeals to floaters and moderate voters remains to be seen. What is sure is that for Delia to close the gap he needs a variety of candidates to appeal to a diver- sity of electoral niches. Delia's major problem is that while being too vocal on good gov- ernance risks alienating some cat- egory of voters, including business lobbies, being absent on this issue risks further alienating voters who are still angry on Panamagate and its aftermath. One major factor will be Delia's campaigning skills. If he translates his human touch into votes, Delia may well be here to stay. But any failure to register gains in these elections may prove lethal to De- lia. It may re-ignite doubts on his viability as PN leader. But the fear of another crushing defeat and the prospect of giving Muscat carte blanche on constitutional change, may reunite the party behind its new leader. One major obstacle for Delia may be the performance of third party candidates who win over PN voters turned off by Delia, or disgruntled Labour voters. This would ensure that any drop in La- bour's share of the vote does not translate into a narrowing of the gap between the big parties. This means that while MEP elections may have a bearing on Muscat's decision to stand down, this elec- toral test has even greater conse- quences on Delia's future than on Muscat's. In this way the elections may well determine the leaders who would face each other in the 2022 general election. Will the next general election see Delia pitted against Muscat or against a new Labour leader? Or will the PN itself end up having to choose a new leader? 2019 might hold this very answer. jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt maltatoday SUNDAY 25 FEBRUARY 2018 News One major factor will be Delia's campaigning skills. If he translates his human touch into votes, Delia may well be here to stay. But any failure to register gains in these elections may prove lethal to Delia Deputy prime minister and health minister Chris Fearne may well become Labour's new agent of change. With him, a major incognito are the futures of minister Konrad Mizzi and Muscat's chief-of-staff. Would Mizzi stay on with Fearne as leader, especially knowing the political differences between both fourth district rivals? "Hi, I want your job..." - Joseph Muscat is greeted by European Council president Donald Tusk. The Maltese prime minister's ambition for an EU post is known, but he will need a strong electoral victory and a good showing by European socialists in 2019 to carry him through