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10 LABOUR leader Joseph Muscat's road to winning the next European elections by a huge margin will certainly give the Maltese Prime Minister more serenity to decide on his personal political future. For the PN's leader Adrian Delia, any failure to narrow the gap could well be the prelude to mutiny. Muscat has given a personal twist to the MEP elections in 2019. Af- ter declaring he would not be run- ning in another general election, a speech to supporters in Qormi last Sunday has galvanised Labour vot- ers to make the European elections a manifestation of support for him to stay on… even if, another out- standing victory actually makes it simpler for Muscat to depart in glory. For Delia, narrowing the gap in these elections is a do-or-die ques- tion, making it vital for him to win over a segment of voters that still voted for Labour in 2017 despite allegations of corruption levied constantly at the Muscat adminis- tration. So for Muscat, the MEP elections are all about keeping all his options open. For Delia, a question of sur- vival. Muscat in a corner? Joseph Muscat is a genius in po- litical strategy. Rarely has the man put himself in a corner or limited his options with no space for ma- noeuvre. Indeed, his ability to keep all options open and have enough elbow room when taking decisions, even in an occasional U-turn, has been his main political skill. His third public declaration that he will not run another general election sounded out of charac- ter. He may have simply repeated what he has said for years, namely that he would only serve two terms and step down, but the political dynamics changed after Caruana Galizia's murder. Not only did this event – which sent shockwaves in Europe – dampen Muscat's chanc- es of clinching an institutional post in the EU, but it prompted Muscat to affirm his role as the strong na- tional leader at a time of crisis. Concurrently, appeals for Muscat to change his mind started gaining traction. So was Muscat caught off-guard when he told presenter Andrew Azzopardi that there was no turning back on his decision, or was he testing the ground on his imminent exit? For it took only a week for Mus- cat to declare that he was definitely leading the party in the next MEP elections, without saying anything on what would happen after, at the very least rekindling hopes among Labour supporters that he may have a change of heart. The logic? Muscat playing on emotions, in- jecting a sense of urgency in the 2019 elections for those who want him to stay on. For irrespective of whether he stays on or not, Muscat needs a strong affirmation in MEP elec- tions next year. If he departs early he has to do so in a moment of glory, without leaving the party in some anguish of an unlikely but possible defeat. In short, the party can't afford to go in succession mode, with the PN narrowing the gap, and ambitious aspirants to the post chipping away at his author- ity. But to stay on he equally needs an electoral boost, one that would further exorcise the spectre of the Panama Papers and the ghosts un- leashed by Daphne Caruana Gali- zia's assassination. Keeping all windows open So what would be Muscat's op- tions after MEP elections next year? It could all depend on three main variables: the extent of his victory in these elections and the result of magisterial inquiries on Egrant and related cases that touch his closest allies. One option is for Muscat to stay on as Prime Minister till the end of the legislature and preside over constitutional reforms while the party elects a new leader, who would only take on the constitu- tional reins of the country after the next general elections. It is a logical, albeit too alien concept for the Maltese psyche, which gives the impression of confusion and can be easily exploited by the Op- position. But if Muscat embarks on such a course he would still continue call- ing the shots, paving the way for a constitutional opening that can see his return to Maltese politics as president in the not-so-distant future, after testing the ground for a possible post in European insti- tutions. Muscat may also hope in a clean bill of health from the Egrant in- quiry, becoming eligible once again for a European post (he is being touted for chief of the European Council of ministers) even if this may still remain in doubt thanks to other inquiries on close associ- ates like his chief-of-staff Keith Schembri and doubts surrounding Caruana Galizia's murder. Muscat may also choose to call it a day a few months after MEP elections and let the new leader be- come Prime Minister. This could also mean the new PM might lack legitimacy from the polls. Past leaders like Karmenu Mifsud Bon- nici and Lawrence Gonzi, who be- came PMs after winning internal contests, later suffered at the polls, with the former being defeated in his first electoral test and the latter winning by a wafer-thin majority in 2008. And after 2009, nothing was ever normal for the Gonzi ad- ministration. Ironically, while many Labour maltatoday SUNDAY 25 FEBRUARY 2018 European elections 2019 News How MEP elections could determine the leaders of 2022 MEP elections next year have become intertwined with the fate of Malta's two main political leaders. How will the dynamics of the election impact on the leadership of Muscat and Delia? JAMES DEBONO Top: If Muscat's former One News colleague and now MEP Miriam Dalli – perceived to be close to Muscat – emerges as a frontrunner in the MEP elections, she could build on the momentum gained at the polls to galvanise support among Labour delegates and members who would elect the next Labour leader