Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/950286
maltatoday WEDNESDAY 7 MARCH 2018 News 6 FOR weeks opinion polls had clearly indicated that the cen- tre-right coalition was on track to win most seats and votes but without the parliamentary ma- jority required to form a gov- ernment. What polls had not foreseen was the shift in the balance of forces in the centre right; with the hard right taking the lead over Forza Italia – a member of the European People's party along Angela Merkel's Chris- tian Democratic Union and the Nationalist Party in Malta. Moreover the combined sum of the anti-immigrant Northern League (18%) and the post-fas- cist Fratelli d'Italia (4%) totals 22% compared to just 15% who voted for EPP members Forza Italia (14%) and Noi con l'Italia (1%). This result has reversed the traditional dominance of Forza Italia over its more right-wing allies. After giving legitimacy to the hard right by embracing it, the octogenarian Berlusconi has been reduced to becoming the Lega's junior partner. This could well be seen as a cautionary tale for moderate right-wing forces in other Eu- ropean countries like France who may be tempted to team up with the far right to have a chance to win. What the Italian result indicates is that the mod- erate centre is not automatically dominant in such coalitions especially when immigration eclipses all other issues. Berlusconi's gamble of proposing the mod- erate EU parliament president Antonio Tajani as his candi- date for Prime Min- ister while embrac- ing his right-wing allies has backfired. For voters may have seen through Ber- lusconi's double insurance policy, that of allying himself with the far right while keeping a window open for a post- electoral deal with the centre left in case no clear winner emerged. Tajani may well have been the key to such an agreement. But the result kills any pros- pect of a grand coalition of moderates in the German vein since the major casualties of the Italian election were the repre- sentatives of the two major Eu- ropean families: the European Popular Party and the Socialists and Democrats. They do not even have the numbers to form a government. What distinguishes Italy from the rest of Europe is the emer- gence of the post ideological populist party; the 5-Star Move- ment which contains elements of both right-wing and left-wing populism, distinguished by its commitment for introducing a citizenship income while op- posing citizenship for those born in Italy. Twinkle twinkle bigger stars While it was expected that the party would become the largest single party, by surpassing the 30% mark, the party has surpassed a symbolic threshold which turns the protest party in to a major player. The party has also won the entire first past the post seats in southern Italian re- gions including Sicily, Sardinia, Basilicata, and Puglia and a majority in Calabria and Campania. This is clear indica- tion that the lack of job prospects, corruption and stagnation in the southern re- gions have pushed voters to seek a radical break with the past. Italy is now divided between a north dominated by the right and a south dominated by the 5-Star Movement. While the centre right has won most of the north including the majority of seats in Emilia Ro- magna which used to be a com- munist stronghold, the centre left has only managed to win by a whisker in Tuscany and to win convincingly in Trentino Alto Adige thanks to its regional ally – the South Tyrolean People's Party which forms part of the European People's Party. What are the President's options? The success of the two anti- establishment parties militates against any grand coalition be- t w e e n the two weakened centrist par- ties which command the sup- port of only a third of Italians. But the result leaves a number of options open for the forma- tion of the next Italian govern- ment. It is up to the President of the Republic, Sergio Matarella, to pave the way forward and find someone who can form a government. One of his first dilemmas would be whether to start by giving an explora- tory mandate to Matteo Salvini as the new leader of the largest coalition in parliament or to Luigi Di Maio as the leader of the largest party in parliament. So what are Matarella's options? A Salvini-led minority government Although not obliged to do so, Italian President Sergio Matarella may feel duty bound to give the leader of the center-right coalition the first chance to form a government. Since the Lega is now the larg- est party of the right, as agreed beforehand with Berlusconi, it falls on them to choose the coalition's candidate for the premiership. But since the centre right lacks the numbers to form a govern- ment, it will need to find al- lies. Since all other MPs hail either from the Left or from the 5-Star Movement, this looks like an impossible task. One possibility would be to find common ground with the 5-Star Movement but this is unlikely for two reasons; the animosity of the 5-Star Move- ment towards Silvio Berlusco- ni and Forza Italia and the fact that the 5-Star Movement would only be asked to form a government if the centre right fails to do so. Understanding political earthquake While one in every two Italian voters voted for two insurgent Eurosceptic parties, barely a third voted for the two mainstream parties represented in the two largest European political families; the European People's Party and the Socialists and Democrats. What has led to this political earthquake? led to this political earthquake? JAMES DEBONO Matteo Salvini Luigi di Maio