Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/992522
NEWS 6 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 10 JUNE 2018 JAMES DEBONO LABOUR deputy leader Chris Fearne on Wednesday publicly called on Joseph Muscat to stay on till the next general elec- tion in 2022. Speculation has been mounting since Muscat declared in 2017 he would not run for another general elec- tion. So why is Muscat keeping everyone guessing? Turn back the clock 15 years when Alfred Sant reversed his earlier decision to resign from Labour leader after two consecutive electoral defeats, having been solicited by La- bour crowds to stay on. He went on to lose by a whisker in the 2008 general election. Something similar may be occurring in Labour now, al- beit in completely different circumstances. For now it is Sant's successor, Muscat, who is being solicited to stay on af- ter winning two consecutive superlative victories. Sant was retained despite being widely seen as a liability after a series of defeats, but Muscat is con- sidering resigning after win- ning every electoral appoint- ment. Making history Muscat had already taken a bold commitment, reiterated in 2015. "I always said that we have – that I have – a 15-year plan: five years in Opposition and 10 years in government." Two self-imposed terms, mirroring the legal stay for US presidents, and signaling a departure from his party's his- tory, dominated first by Dom Mintoff serving for 35 years, then by Alfred Sant for 16. Only Karmenu Mifsud Bon- nici bowed down after eight years and two defeats. Muscat's plan looked bold and fresh. It dispelled fears of entrenchment in power. It served as an antidote to his growing personality cult – ac- centuated this week with a rally for his 10th leadership anniversary – which tolerable though it may be, could easily turn toxic if he stays on. Yet the commitment to leave after ten years in office still offered Muscat two options: either retire before the next general election or immedi- ately after it. His first term in office has already been cut by a year, leaving Muscat an- other six years in office, one of which could coincide with a year-long leadership contest after the general election. But in February when inter- viewed by Andrew Azzopar- di, Muscat was categorical: he said he would stick to his word and step down from his- post before the next election. Ever since that declaration, the party has been in fibrilla- tion as speculation mounted on an imminent leadership race possibly immediately af- ter MEP elections to ensure enough time for the new lead- er to settle in. Chris Fearne's intentions It was in this context that Chris Fearne, Muscat's dep- uty leader and one of the candidates widely touted to be interested in his post, ap- pealed to Muscat directly to abscond on his commitment and stay on as leader till the next general election, in an article penned in the Times a few hours before the party was going to celebrate Mus- cat's 10 years as leader at Paola. Why did Fearne do that? He may well be genuinely expressing a feeling among Labourites that Muscat's de- parture before the next elec- tion would be premature. But being interested in becoming leader himself, Fearne could also be trying to curry favour with Muscat's loyalists and the party machine that will have a say on who would suc- ceed the present leader. After all, Fearne was the on- ly one of the three candidates for deputy leader who did not exclude a future leadership bid. And he was also report- edly not Muscat's favourite for deputy prime minister. Fearne may well prefer a contest held after a general election victory, in which he would have had a big role as deputy leader, rather than af- ter the 2019 European elec- tions in which potential rivals like Miriam Dalli are expected to take the limelight. Muscat's guessing game It may well be the case that Muscat himself is leaving eve- ryone guessing as he himself has not yet taken a final deci- sion. Probably his initial com- mitment was based on two calculations. The first was a historical observation that parties in government tend to start losing support after two consecutive terms in office as happened to Gorg Borg Ol- ivier after 1966, Mintoff after 1976 and Fenech Adami after 1992. The PN did manage to win three consecutive elec- tions after 1998. But Gonzi only managed to win by a whisker in 2008. Based on current polls Mus- cat seems to defy these histor- ical odds. The second calculation may have been based on the possi- bility of a top European post, which became increasingly unlikely following revelations on Panamagate and more so, after the assassination of Caruana Galizia. Still weighing on Muscat is Aaron Bugeja's magisterial in- quiry. Muscat has promised to resign if any evidence or sus- picion linking him or his wife Michelle to the secret Panama company Egrant is found. But if the inquiry absolves him, it may either renew the prospect of a European post or increase his staying power as leader. Other inquiries on Keith Schembri and Konrad Mizzi may also drag on during the The Prime Minister has set an expiry date for his tenure. But Muscat, the chess-player, seems to know better than to tell both opponents and pretenders when he will actually leave Muscat keeps them guessing Please Don't Go. Labour deputy PM Chris Fearne may well be genuinely expressing a feeling among Labourites that Joseph Muscat's departure before the next election would be premature PHOTO JAMES BIANCHI