Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/998504
maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 27 JUNE 2018 6 NEWS ANALYSIS IN an interview with Lovin Malta, PN leader Adrian Delia insisted that he won't resign after next year's MEP elec- tions even if he loses by 100,000 votes. "We can lose the MEP elec- tion by 90,000 votes or we can lose it by 100,000 votes, we can win all the battleground local councils or we can lose them all, but I won't even consider resigning. Politics isn't a game". Why is he saying this? The an- swer is simple. He is sending a clear message to those within the party who have not ac- cepted him as party leader and who still hope that the party will replace him if he is trashed by Muscat in next year's elec- tions. What Delia is saying is that he is here to stay until the next general election which he considers as the real test for his leadership. "Irrespective of the numbers next year, our plan is for the next general election. Next year's elections will be our first real survey – to redirect us if things go amiss or strength- en us if things go according to plan." So, Delia is seeking to down- play the importance of these elections by comparing them to a survey on the basis of which he will define the party's strat- egy, possibly by strengthening his hand in the party, irrespec- tive of the result. In so doing Delia is also send- ing a clear message to those PN voters who may be tempted to abstain in next year's contest in the hope that defeat will trigger the election for a new leader. For the very rumour that De- lia will resign if the margin be- tween the two parties contin- ues to increase over and above the 35,000 (40,000 if PD votes are excluded) in the last gen- eral election may well further dampen the PN's prospects. This is because Delia is fight- ing on two fronts. The lat- est MaltaToday survey shows that while 92% of PL voters in 2017 will vote Labour again in a forthcoming election, only 65% of PN voters will vote for their party. A substantial 16% will not vote. On the other hand less than 1% of PL voters in 2017 have switched to the PN. This means that Delia is not only failing to make any in- roads among Labour voters but is also losing support to absten- tion. PN insiders confirm that a category of voters, particularly in localities like Sliema, remain antagonistic towards the new leader and may be tempted to abstain. Delia does have an advantage in these elections. Anti-corrup- tion voters who fail to see De- lia as their leader may still vote for candidates like David Casa who are perceived to be closer to Delia's predecessor, Simon Busuttil. Yet the risk for Delia will be a disjointed campaign where the party is perceived by voters as divided and faction-ridden. Calling the shots The fact is that while Delia benefits from plurality of candi- dates making a pitch to differ- ent categories of voters he must also be seen as the leader calling the shots. He needs to keep both the voters of those who still want to continue what Busuttil had started while luring voters who were never impressed by Busut- til's 'good governance' preten- tions. Delia desperately needs the party to unite behind him simply because divided parties are always punished by voters. In this Delia is right. If they re- ally want the party to start re- covering lost ground, the Bu- suttil faction have to let the new leader call the shots. That is why Delia was quick to chide his predecessor for tweet- ing on last week's ECJ decision on trapping before the party is- sued its stance. That is why he has unambigiously committed his party to support Muscat in the standoff with Italy over ir- regular migrants. One may disa- gree with Delia's stance on both issues but at least voters know where the PN stands. Some will probably not feel at home any- more in the party while others will start feeling more at home in it. But ultimately, no party can recover lost ground if its leader is not allowed to call the shots. How the PN lost its edge The problem for Delia is that by saying that he won't resign even if he loses by 100,000 votes, he is sounding irrational. For any party leader, the leader- ship of any party leader losing by such a margin is untenable. Just as Muscat may be postur- ing by hinting that he will re- sign after a fourth consecutive electoral victory, thus creating an unnecessary leadership vac- uum which could damage the party, Delia could be postur- ing to quell internal revolt fully knowing that he won't stay on if he is humiliated. As Delia is keen on saying, a day in politics is a long one and we still have to see Delia as a campaigner. But to make pro- gress Delia needs to instill con- fidence and hope rather than resignation. Yet to get there, Delia needs both an inspiring team and an inspiring unifying message. The problem for Delia is that his leadership team is even weak- er than that of Busuttil. While Busuttil was flanked by Beppe Fenech Adami and Mario de Marco, Delia is flanked by Da- vid Agius and Robert Arrigo, two successful constituency politicians who, however, lack the political depth of their pre- decessors. When one considers that Busuttil's team was itself weaker than that of Gonzi and Fenech Adami, one can't help feeling that the PN is a party in decline. Delia is not to blame for this. The PN electorate did not renew the party in the last general election by electing a new dynamic front bench. Where's the beef? Moreover, Delia still struggles to reconcile the different pri- orities and values of PN voters, let alone come with a message which can win over new vot- ers from the other side. Lack- ing a clear battle cry after partly ditching Busuttil's emphasis on good governance, Delia has opted to return to more con- servative values on issues like IVF while resorting to simplis- tic notions on foreign workers Why Delia is bracing for While Muscat has expressed his intention to leave the political scene after winning MEP elections which he is expected to win hands down, Delia is insisting that he won't leave even if he loses by 100,000 votes. JAMES DEBONO asks what lies behind Delia's survival-at-all-cost strategy Some will probably not feel at home anymore in the party while others will start feeling more at home in it. But ultimately, no party can recover lost ground if its leader is not allowed to call the shots