Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1122313
14 maltatoday | MONDAY • 27 MAY 2019 EUROPE 2019 ALTHOUGH with no clear results at the time of going to print, the Europe- an will mark the beginning of the next five-year European Union (EU) parlia- mentary cycle with a more fragmented set-up than in the past. Commitment to the EU is likely to be broadly undiminished, even with the Brexit saga continuing. The credit rating agency DBRS says that though sometimes messy, EU de- mocracy will continue to deliver need- ed adjustments when a consensus can be found. But getting things done will be more difficult, and the EU's ability to find consensus could be diminished. If opinion polls prove correct, the two main traditional groups – the centre-right European People's Party (EPP) and the centre-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) – are likely to lose their com- bined majority in the EU Parliament. In contrast, the less traditional po- litical factions, including the populist/ nationalist groups and the progressive and liberal pro-EU parties, are expect- ed to increase their share of seats in the Parliament. Adding to this confusion is the still uncertain role of the U.K in these elec- tions. The U.K. will now participate, but newly elected U.K. MEPs might not take their seats on 2nd July, if the U.K. reached an agreement on how to Brexit by that date. This fragmentation reflects the grow- ing public perception that traditional political forces have not been able to meet people's expectations amid globalization, immigration and vary- ing stages of economic convergence among EU regions. "A more fragmented Parliament might have implications for decision- making, starting with the appointment of the President of the European Com- mission, as well as in finding a common agenda to further support the European integration project," DBRS said. Pro-European parties should con- tinue to retain a majority, according to recent polls. The two traditional groups will likely receive fewer votes than previous elections with the com- bined share of EPP and S&D votes like- ly declining from 54% to around 42%. However, the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe group, which could include the En Marche! party, will likely increase its share of seats to around 14%-13% from 9%. When combined with the Greens (7%), there would still be a bloc of pro-European parties at around 64-62%. The U.K. has now committed to par- ticipating in the elections, but this only adds to the likelihood of frag- mentation. The outcome of the lo- cal elections in the U.K. suggests that the new MEPs from the U.K. will come from a range of parties and be less dominated by the major parties. A U.K. exit would shrink the over- all number of seats to 705 from 751. Nonetheless, when excluding the U.K., the Parliament's projected structure is not expected to significantly change. In this case, the S&D's share of seats would decline slightly because of the loss of the U.K. Labour MEPs but this would not have a significant impact on the size of the pro-EU majority. That said, if nationalist/populist par- ties perform better than expected on voting day, their influence could sig- nificantly impact the agenda of the new parliament. They would generally be expected to press for policies that increase the autonomy of individual member states within the EU. Howev- er, this will largely depend on whether they are able to find common ground with each other, which remains far from certain. DBRS said that a more fragmented parliament could require longer and more complex negotiations with poten- tial delays. "Within the potential pro- EU majority, for example, small parties like the Greens and ALDE have politi- cal platforms that do not necessarily align with that of mainstream parties, and the process of setting priorities and reaching consensus could be more chal- lenging. Starting with the appointment of the President of European Commis- sion, this process may not be clear cut and might have implications for other top EU institutional appointments." An early indication of the extent of increased negotiations and less pre- dictability could arise in the selection of the President of the Commission. The current system, introduced in 2014, sees the "Spitzenkandidaten" (lead candidate) of the group obtain- ing the most votes as the most likely candidate. However, if there is not enough con- sensus in both the Parliament and the European Council around this choice, there could be delays. Typically, the Council oversees pro- posing the candidate, but their election also requires the approval of Parliament. With the EPP projected to win the most seats, its Spitzenkandidaten, Manfred Weber, who belongs to the German CSU (Christian Social Union in Bavaria) is most likely to be pro- posed for President. It would then be up to parliament to approve. However, the selection of the President affects top appointments in other institu- tions, such as the ECB president, due to the informal practice of balancing power among members states or be- tween Northern and Southern coun- tries. New EP could be more fragmented – DBRS GRETA Thunberg's climate strike movement has triggered a green wave in a number of European countries, with Malta being a notable exception. This could make the Greens, along with the liberals, kingmakers in the new parliament where both Social- ists and Christian-democrats have de- clined in their seats and do not com- mand a majority together. In Germany, the largest and most represented country in the European Parliament, the left-leaning Greens have overtaken the Social Democrats to emerge as the second largest party after Angela Merkel's Christian Dem- ocrats. Riding high on a green wave triggered by mounting concern on cli- mate change, the German Greens are projected to win 22 seats, six less than the Christian Democrats and seven more than the Social Democrats. The right-wing populist AFD has failed to make further inroads winning less than 11% of the vote and 10 seats. But the far right has won its most im- portant appointment with Marine Le Pen overtaking French President Em- manuel Macron's centrist movement in what could be a setback in his at- tempt to project himself as the leader of a new centre-left alliance between the Socialists and the Liberals. Mat- teo Salvini's Lega has also emerged as Italy's largest party. In Ireland, Leo Varadkar's Fine Gael a member of the EPP under whose watch his country has liberalised abortion laws, is expected to be con- firmed as the largest party with 29% of the vote. The Irish Greens are ex- pected to treble their votes to win 15% and 3 of the country's 10 seats. The green wave also left ripples in Finland (16%), France where the Greens have emerged as the third party with 13% of From green wave to black tide European People's Party is projected to remain the largest party but liberals and greens could be kingmakers as Eurosceptic populist parties win in France, Italy, Hungary, Poland and UK but fail to surge elsewhere