Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1140325
his firm belief that politicians have an expiry date: two terms for PMs and 20 years for MPs. But not resigning now, Muscat has gained more time to ensure an orderly transition for his party which is no longer faced with the bleak prospect of Muscat's sudden departure. He may now stay on as PM com- pleting his term in office, while the party elects a new leader ready to lead the party in to the next election. But going back on his word by contemplating a third term, would give the impression that remaining in office in Malta is a fallback after failing to get what he wanted in Europe. Muscat is now duty-bound to commit himself to complete his term in office while ensuring a seam- less transition to a new leader- ship. 3. Staying on after 2022 risks strengthening the personality cult, made tolerable by his im- minent exit By saying that he would only serve for a decade, Muscat found a balance between the strong leader die-hards love, and the less overbearing PM appreciated by liberals and MOR voters. In this way Mus- cat could nurture his own per- sonality cult while giving the impression this was harmless in view of his imminent depar- ture. If he uses the pretext that party supporters want him to stay on, Muscat would move his leadership to a new level: one where he would have to in- creasingly succumb to the cult- ish devotion surrounding him. 4. He will lose the chance of moving out graciously at the right moment Despite the scale of his vic- tory in MEP elections and two consecutive victories against two different PN leaders, Mus- cat has so far only served six years as PM. This means that he is not even near the closure of the 10-year cycle in office. Both Labour in the 1980s and the PN in the 1990s started de- clining after completing this cycle. The disastrous state of the Nationalist opposition may tempt him to linger on to add Adrian Delia's scalp in his trophy cabinet, next to that of Lawrence Gonzi and Simon Busuttil. Labour's scale of victory could well be obscuring signs of disenchantment in the elec- torate not yet on the surface due to the lack of political al- ternatives. One may also argue that the best time for a party in government to elect a new leader is in the serenity offered by a large electoral margin and a distant general election. After 2022 the PL may well be fac- ing a different ball game, one which would require a new leader boosted by an electoral mandate. 5. Labour must debate its fu- ture. Muscat may be an obsta- cle to this debate After the next election, La- bour will probably need a leader who can address the undesirable consequences of Muscat's economic model. Muscat will be leaving a toxic inheritance of environmental and social problems coupled and the complete lack of moral leadership in addressing the corruption issue. To address these problems Labour may well need a less "pro-business" leader than Muscat or one less compromised y Muscat's po- litical alliances to clean up the Augean stables. But Muscat's towering pres- ence inside the party he has led for the past 11 years may stand in the way of a debate on La- bour's future direction. While none of the aspirants for lead- ership are questioning Mus- cat's neoliberal drift, some of them may lack the intellectual depth to address these issues. Still, the race may at least trig- ger some introspection on La- bour's direction. One may well ask: why change direction when the Muscat model has worked so well in electoral terms? Yet this dis- cussion could also anticipate future challenges by address- ing rising concerns on land use, inequalities and precari- ous jobs. If these problems are swept under the carpet, Labour may well face the same identity problems, which plagued the PN since 2003. 6. The next leader must have an electoral mandate Muscat may still honour his commitment to serve 10 years by winning the next election and resigning a year after, the same way as as Eddie Fenech Adami did in 2004. In so doing Muscat would avoid a divisive leadership battle before the next general election. Yet by stepping down be- fore the next election, Muscat would ensure that the next La- bour leader would be elected Prime Minister by an electoral mandate, avoiding a scenario in which Malta's new prime minister would have been promoted through an internal party decision. Leaders elected in this way, namely Karmenu Mifsud Bonnici and Lawrence Gonzi struggled with the per- ception that they were not the choice of the electorate. Appointed two years after the controversial 1981 elec- tion, KMB failed his first elec- toral test in 1987 only to linger on till as party leader till 1992. Gonzi, elected in 2004, scraped through the 2008 election by a wafer-thin majority before the party imploded in subsequent years. Even internationally Gordon Brown found it very hard to assert his authority as Tony Blair's successor after he was crowned leader follow- ing an election won by Blair. Brown was tempted to cement his leadership by calling an early election months after re- placing Blair. His failure to do so sealed his fate. So instead of departing after the election of the new party leader, Muscat may choose to continue serving his term as Prime Minister, giving the new Labour leader time to set- tle down as party leader before seeking a popular mandate to become a PM in their own right, as Angela Merkel has done by staying on as Chan- cellor after Annagret Kramp- Karrenbauer became the new leader of the CDU. The only risk in this scenario would be that the new party leader would be initially over- shadowed by Muscat's pres- ence. Still, the new leader is more likely to be eclipsed by Muscat if he or she lands in office deprived of an electoral mandate and spends four years in office with a diminished stature. Such a prospect may actually accelerate Labour's probable decline in its third term in office. 5 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 10 JULY 2019 ANALYSIS STOCK TAL-GVERN MALTA GOVERNMENT STOCK Secure Investment Issue of €60,000,000 by auction Fixed Rate Malta Government Stock (subject to the over-allotment option up to a maximum amount of €40,000,000) Fixed Rate Malta Government Stock The Treasury shall be issuing by auction €60,000,000 Fixed Rate Malta Government Stocks subject to an over-allotment option to increase the sum to be raised up to a maximum additional amount of €40,000,000 as follows: (i) 0.5% Malta Government Stock (Second Issue) Maturing in 2025, and (ii) 1.85% Malta Government Stock (Third Issue) – Fungibility Issue Maturing in 2029, or (iii) Any combination of the above two Stocks which in the aggregate shall be €60,000,000 Applications in the form of sealed bids (competitive auction) for a minimum of €500,000 and multiples of €100,000 each open on Wednesday 17 th July 2019 at 8.30a.m. and close at noon of the same day or earlier at the discretion of the Accountant General. Bids on the prescribed forms are to be transmitted by e-mail at the e-mail addresses indicated on the application form or by fax on 2596 7210 or deposited in the Treasury Tender Box in Floriana. Application forms may be obtained from all Members of the Malta Stock Exchange and other authorized Investment Service Providers or downloaded from the Treasury's website at www.treasury.gov.mt. MALTA GOVERNMENT STOCK FOR SAFE INVESTMENT AND LIQUIDITY WITH INTEREST PAID UP TO THE DAY OF RE-SALE OF STOCK ◆ SECURITY ◆ CONTINUOUS LIQUIDITY ◆ INTEREST EVERY SIX MONTHS ◆ (The value of the investment may go up or down during the tenor of the Stock) Treasury Department, Development House, Level 2-3, St. Anne Street, Floriana, Malta. Muscat should leave before the next election If Muscat bowed out after 10 years in office, he could help dispel the growing perception of a self-perpetuating clique planting its roots permanently in Castille